New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens: Hype vs Facts

A dark shadow slowly creeps over the east wall of Gillette Stadium, swallowing more and more of what we used to know as the sun as it encroaches over an ever-widening portion of the field and seats. In the blink of an eye, the entire region is blanketed in suffocating darkness, and with a screeching “CCCAAAAAAAAAAWWW!!!”, a blinding purple light flashes down to midfield while a voice that would make Darth Vader blush drones “PUNY NEW ENGLAND! BALTIMORE HAS LANDED…TO TAKE…YOUR LUNCH MONEY!”

Everybody run! Nobody’s safe!  Save the children!

Please. Nobody’s been this irrationally scared of anything or anyone since gluten. (Side note: you have better odds of being dealt three of a kind at a poker table in Vegas than actually being allergic to gluten. Seriously.)

Most of this hysteria HAS to be from the 2012 AFC Championship Game. Baltimore rolled into Foxboro riding the RED-HOT-HAND of quarterback Joe Flacco, and, after losing in Gillette the previous year due to Billy Cundiff’s last minute field goal having a shank that would make a golf coach projectile vomit, punched New England in the mouth 28-13. But there were several ingredients in that game that aren’t in this year’s pot of chili. Consider the following:

-New England led at halftime, 13-7, in that contest.

-Remember that Anquan Boldin guy, and how he was Joe Flacco’s blankie for pretty much the entire postseason? The same Anquan Boldin that caught two touchdowns in that very same AFC Championship game? Of course, he was shipped out to San Francisco following the Ravens’ Super Bowl run, and then, without him, when Baltimore was forced to go deep more often than not, the Ravens missed the playoffs entirely last season. So, like any good parent would do, the Ravens went out and got Joe Flacco a new blankie to play slot receiver (mostly); the guy who wakes up on the wrong side of the bed every day, Steve Smith Sr. While it’s a blast watching Steve Smith play, there’s a big size difference between Smith (5’9’’) and Boldin (6’1’’). No offense to Steve-O, but you’re not throwing any jump balls over the middle to this guy like you did to Boldin.

-On that 2012 Baltimore team, the safety duo consisted of Hall of Famer Ed Reed, and Bernard Pollard, who you might remember as the guy that “plays physical” and gave Stevan Ridley a game-ending concussion in the last quarter that forced a fumble. At corner, the last interception of the game was made by Cary Williams in the end zone. That’s two turnovers, in the last period, due to a helmet-to-helmet shot and an uncharacteristically forced throw by Brady, and that’s not counting two possessions New England had to punt on earlier in that half either. Neither Pollard or Williams are with the Ravens anymore.

-At that point, Rob Gronkowski was already injured from the previous game against the Houston Texans.

Now, everyone take a break and get some more chips and salsa, and we’ll examine why this year’s contest has almost nothing to do with the above, which, admittedly, sucked.

So now that we’ve established that the 2012 game above was, essentially, a combination of bad breaks and injuries, uncharacteristic Patriots mistakes, and great play from several now-former Ravens, let’s move on to why Baltimore, not New England, is the underdog, and not just in a Vegas sense.

First, and most obviously, if there’s a set of defensive backs that’s going to fit matchups with the Ravens better than an Express slim fit suit, it’s New England’s. With New England playing the majority of their defense in the nickel these days, that means Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, perpetually unsung slot-man Kyle Arrington, Devin McCourty at free safety, and (probably) Patrick Chung. Between jamming receivers off the line and shadowing them on routes, let’s be serious here; no matter who’s on who, Joe Flacco ain’t Aaron Rodgers. He’s not making mailbox-tight throws, at least not on a consistent basis. New England doesn’t play straight man-to-man coverage all the time, at least not nearly as much as people seem to think they do (if I read one more ESPN mailbag where someone says “DURRR we can just put Revis and Browner on (other team’s #1 and #2 receiver), and we’ll win!”, you’ll hear me scream all the way in San Francisco), but after all, a “bad day” for Darrelle Revis might mean he allowed 3 receptions for 35 yards. And outside of Steve Smith Sr, who’s always a yards-after-the-catch animal, the Ravens’ primary deep-ball threat is Torrey Smith, who lives and dies with one-on-one matchups with shorter and slower defensive backs and blown coverages.

“BUT BUT BUT BUT they torched Pittsburgh last weekend!” True. Can you name one member of the Pittsburgh secondary that played that game? Pittsburgh DB Ike Taylor didn’t play. The only Steeler name you might recognize at corner was William Gay. Troy Polamalu was in the game, but he’s running on fumes these days, and was a last-minute call for that game anyway with a lagging knee injury. Point being, New England has arguably the best defensive back set this side of Seattle, and the Steelers that game, well, weren’t exactly up to snuff.

On top of that, there’s an excellent write-up from Grantland’s Robert Mays this week on the Ravens’ defense, and the title says it all: “No Pass Coverage, No Problem: How Baltimore’s Front Seven Masks Its Depleted Secondary”. Instead of the fearsome secondary we reminisced about (had nightmares about?) a few paragraphs ago, Baltimore’s current defensive back situation includes Lardarius Webb at corner, and, uh…(shuffles papers)…apparently their other corners are named Anthony Levine, Danny Garrer, Asa Jackson, and Rashaan Melvin. It doesn’t get much better at safety, with the duo there being Will Hill (who you all might remember from his Giants days) and the coverage-challenged (to put it nicely) Matt Elam. The crew of dudes that rolls up on Michael Jackson in the “Beat It” video is scarier than that.

Of course, there’s Baltimore’s front seven to consider, and that’s where New England’s jigsaw puzzle of an offensive line needs to step up in a “NONE SHALL PASS!!!” way this weekend. Fortunately, improving their performance from the last couple weeks shouldn’t be too tall of an order. New England finally gets starting guard Dan Connolly back on the field, and that’ll not only put another brick in the wall, but also give New England the same O-line combo that got the Patriots through their Rambo-rampage of a 10-win streak. Oh, and by the way, that streak included beating two of the best front-seven defenses in football, the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins, and it wasn’t close in either game. Baltimore’s defensive front has been playing out of their minds as of late, but to assume they’re going to reduce New England to a smoldering pile of blue and silver ashes is just X-Files-style paranoia.

And after all the shellackings of teams like Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Miami, and Denver (Denver!) this season (and those are just the “flawless victory” beatdowns, not the close Patriots wins), people still seem to doubt that New England’s offense can bring the ruckus when things go right. Sigh. There’s no pleasing some folks.

Baltimore looks good. Pretty, pretty good. And there’s no discounting the less-than-friendly vibes between the two top-tier AFC competitors, the fact that Baltimore seems to have gotten their groove on at precisely the right time of year, and their emergence as the lone survivor of the cutthroat AFC North.

But to say the Ravens look better in this matchup, well, that makes even less sense than good ol’ Curt Schilling saying he didn’t make the Hall of Fame because he’s a Republican.