Trades Everywhere: Bill Belichick’s Draft Strategy

Give me a “Go Pats!” if the scenario described below is something that has happened to you:

•  Leave work/class on draft day. Spend last 3 hours of work/class dreaming of that special outside linebacker/wide receiver/defensive end/shutdown corner that will be the latest superstar in Bill Belichick’s plan for world domination.
• Sit in traffic.
• Arrive at favorite sports bar with favorite football fan friends. Order first round of beer. Remind self that eating a bacon chili cheeseburger and wings in the same meal is bad for you.
• Order both anyway.
• Watch and wait patiently as Mel Kiper Jr discusses his can’t-miss prospects. -Note: some of these prospects will miss.
• Order more beer.
• Watch clock as it ticks down to final seconds of first overall draft pick.
• 3 picks in, time for a commercial break and more beer. Burp.
• Watch fans of teams picking 1-15 in the bar either cheer ecstatically or lament the day they were born as picks are announced. (see also: Cleveland Browns, 2000-present)
• Finally into the 20’s. Wide receivers and pass-rushers are flying in equal measure.
• “The New England Patriots are on the clock.”
• The clock ticks down to 0:02, and… “We have a trade! New England sends their first-round pick to…(insert team that was 8-8 in previous season here)”
• Smash forehead into table.
• Oh hey, waitress. Another round for the table, please.

Go Pats!

As infuriating as it it is to watch the entire first round of the NFL Draft and not see the Patriots use a first-round pick to fill the biggest TEAM NEEDS category, Belichick’s personal version of Monopoly has produced some brilliant returns over the years, even if it lacks the excitement factor of, say, the Falcons moving mountains to draft Julio Jones. But it certainly does seem like Belichick spends an awful lot of time giving away higher picks for lower or future picks, much to the chagrin of fans that watch 11 college football games a year and are convinced that a twenty-year-old from PowerHouse University can take New England to another Super Bowl, doesn’t it?

The actual results of Belichick’s drafting history may surprise you.

ESPN’s Mike Reiss and Field Yates tackled (no pun intended) Belichick’s draft-day trades right before the 2013 draft, and here’s what they found. Obviously, there have been two drafts since then (2013 and 2014), but the numbers at that point were still telling:

• Times Belichick traded up in the draft – 17
• Times Belichick traded down in the draft or traded for a future pick – 31
• Times Belichick traded a future pick for a present pick – 0

By my count, there have been at least two cases where the Patriots traded down since then, with one notable instance being trading their 2013 first-round pick to the Minnesota Vikings (who then selected University of Tennessee’s future fantasy football heartbreaker Cordarrelle Patterson). On the other hand, the boatload of picks that the Vikings shipped to New England in that deal eventually resulted in linebacker Jamie Collins, cornerback Logan Ryan, and then sending the Vikings seventh-round pick to Tampa Bay for a running back you might have heard of. He goes by the name of LeGarrette Blount.

Right before the Super Bowl, Grantland’s human football encyclopedia Bill Barnwell dove headfirst into Belichick’s draft-day wheeling and dealing, and concluded that Bill Belichick really makes two types of trades: trading a pick for a future pick that’s guaranteed to be better later, like a second-rounder in the current year for a first-rounder the next year, or dealing one pick for several picks, like the Patterson trade I mentioned earlier, which consisted of New England’s first-round pick in exchange for Minnesota’s second, third, fourth, and seventh-rounders. Barnwell then goes on to note that Belichick also likes to combine those two strategies by trading for extra picks and then trading those picks for even more picks, some of which he knows for a fact will be more valuable the next year.  Still with me?

Bill’s piece also included what might be the finest opening line in modern journalism: “Bill Belichick is smart, but sometimes he succeeds just by aiding other team’s efforts to be stupid.”

By avoiding a knee-jerk “OMG we NEED to get this guy!” approach, (and I’m looking at you, people that clamor for a first-round wide receiver every year), New England’s drafts allow them to stockpile picks that either turn into even more picks, or give Belichick another spin at the roulette wheel that is the NFL Draft.

So if another team comes calling for pick 32 in this year’s draft, and Belichick deals it away, don’t smash your head on the table again. Buy the next round, and sit back and enjoy the fact that when teams deal with the Patriots on draft day, they should probably check their wrist to see if their watch is still there after shaking Belichick’s hand.