Sep 24, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski (left) introduces Mike Hazen (right) as the team’s new GM prior to a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Currently sitting with a record of 78-80 with less than a week to play, it is fair to say that the Boston Red Sox had a disappointing 2015 season. Last off season, the Red Sox aggressively chased free agency, and came away with a talented stock led by Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.
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Unfortunately, Sandoval and Ramirez both struggled this season, and were major reasons why the Red Sox were never truly competitive. The Red Sox have recently hired Dave Dombrowski as the team’s President of Baseball Operations, and he could be looking to make some major changes this off season.
While trades are undoubtedly in the Red Sox’s near future, Dombrowski has a long history of attacking free agency aggressively. Fans of Boston baseball are currently scared of free agency after the Ramirez and Sandoval debacles, but I fully expect Dombrowski to be aggressive on players in the open market.
It may not be the best way to attack, but expect the Red Sox to once again to make their mark in free agency.
Right now, it is a bit difficult to predict who the Red Sox will be chasing. Obviously, they will be targeting starting pitching, but I think Dombrowski will be looking to make his mark on this team with the offense as well. Most of all, I fully expect a handful of trades before we even reach free agency.
Dombrowski is not afraid to make anybody available in a deal, and I think he will aggressively be shopping some of his veteran assets. Does an American League team need a DH? Dombrowski should be on the horn with them about Hanley Ramirez. Does a team value Joe Kelly as a strong middle of the rotation option? Work out a deal. Is there a team that believes in a Sandoval resurgence? Let them deal with the Kung Fu Panda.
The Red Sox have some trade-able players who I believe they will be shopping. Dombrowski is likely to use free agency to replace them and supplement the needed areas on the roster.
With the season essentially over, it is time to look ahead to the off season. In this post, we are going to take an extended look at players who the Red Sox should be approaching in free agency.
Without further ado, here are five free agent targets who Dombrowski and the Red Sox need to have a close eye on.
Next: A Potential Ace
Sep 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) delivers a pitch to an Atlanta Braves batter in the sixth inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
The Red Sox have some solid middle-to-bottom of the rotation players on their roster, but their pitching staff is clearly missing an ace. There are going to be many possible ace options available in free agency this off season, but Jordan Zimmermann stands out to me as the best value.
Zimmermann is not a huge strikeout guy, but he has good stuff and is incredibly consistent and reliable. His 3.66 ERA this season is not incredibly encouraging, but his 3.00 ERA combined from the last four seasons suggests that 2015 could have just been a random down year.
Zimmermann has not been great in 2015, and it is certainly going to work against him in free agency. That signals a potential value in my opinion. Starting pitchers are getting astronomical contracts on the open market in recent years, and finding a potential ace for a fair price is not easy. That is exactly what Zimmermann brings.
The Red Sox could over-pay for a David Price or Johnny Cueto, or they could try to find the value in Zimmermann. He is unlikely to get anything more than a five-year deal worth $85-$90 million. Compared to the possible $200 million that Price is going to see, I would take my chances on Zimmermann.
He is a potential ace pitcher for this staff, and at only 29-years-old, Zimmermann still has plenty of project-ability left.
Next: Middle of the Order Hitter
Sep 20, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Chris Davis (19) hits a 2-run home run during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
If Ramirez is still around next season, he is probably going to be the Red Sox’s everyday first baseman. It is an odd fit for him, but there really is not another option. Instead of forcing another position change on Ramirez, I think the Red Sox will aggressively shop him to DH-needy teams. He still has a strong bat. Somebody will take a chance on him.
Now, that would leave a hole at first base. Travis Shaw could probably fill in admirably, but there is a player who will likely reach free agency who seems like a perfect fit. Chris Davis has become one of the best power hitters in baseball in recent seasons, and adding him to the middle of the Red Sox’s lineup would make for a huge boost in production.
After a down 2014 season where he struggled with injuries and performance, Davis has bounced back in a big way in 2015. He is currently hitting .257/.352/.547 on the season with 45 home runs. More importantly, he has stayed healthy throughout, and is entering free agency with high aspirations.
Power is down right now in baseball, and adding Davis to compliment David Ortiz in the middle of the Red Sox’s lineup would arguably give Boston the best power hitting duo in all of the game. Home runs hide a lot of problems on a roster, and if nothing else Davis would bring power.
If they can trade Ramirez to open up first base, this makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox. Unfortunately, it will make a lot of sense for a lot of teams. Everybody wants a power hitter, and Davis is going to go for a premium price. However, he could be worth it to Boston.
Next: Veteran Bullpen Support
Sep 9, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Tyler Clippard (46) pitches during the eighth inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. New York Mets defeated Washington Nationals 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
The Red Sox’s bullpen is a mess. They have some potential, but the results have undoubtedly been lacking. With few strong options in free agency, Dombrowski may primarily look to trades for bullpen help, but it felt silly to ignore the pen issues in this piece.
Traded from the Oakland Athletics to the New York Mets before the deadline, Tyler Clippard has once again been one of the premier set-up men in the game. Clippard is a ground ball machine, who has a 2.96 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 68 relief appearances between the two teams this season.
Clippard does not have elite pitching talent, but he simply knows how to get batters out. He has been one of the most consistent bullpen options in baseball the last five seasons, and is not showing signs of slowing down anytime soon.
The Red Sox could use a strong, consistent presence like Clippard in their bullpen. While I am normally against spending on the bullpen, as long as he comes at a reasonable price, I like the idea of the Red Sox targeting a reliable bullpen piece like Clippard.
Next: An Addition to the Outfield Mix
Sep 26, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros left fielder Colby Rasmus (28) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Texas Rangers in the seventh inning at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 9 to 7. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
In Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and Rusney Castillo, the Red Sox may feel like they have their outfield set for next season, and many years after that. However, there is much unknown about that group. Betts looks to be a star in the making, and the other two certainly have plenty of upside, but the Red Sox could use some depth in the outfield.
I doubt they would go the high-priced route with a Jason Heyward, Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler, but there are some interesting options in the next tier for the Red Sox. Gerardo Parra, Denard Span and Austin Jackson all stand out for various reasons, and I would not be surprised to see the Red Sox showing interest in any of those players this off season.
That being said, Colby Rasmus feels like a guy the Red Sox should be looking for. While not much of an average hitter (career .244 batting average), Rasmus does provide plenty of value. He has nice power (22 homeruns, 23 doubles and two triples this season), plays good defense and has position versatility throughout the outfield.
The dream of Rasmus becoming a superstar is long gone, but he is a solid option in the outfield, and would be a nice complementary piece for the Red Sox.
Rasmus is hitting .232/.307/.453 with the Houston Astros this year, not bad, but far from great. However, he is providing nice depth and versatility for the team while not hurting them on the field. If Betts, Bradley and Castillo all turn out to be great next year, then Rasmus would be a nice fourth outfielder to have around. If one or more of them trip up (like we should expect them to), Rasmus would be a good replacement in the outfield.
Not a move that will grab the headlines, but Rasmus is a solid guy who the Red Sox could get for a fair price.
Next: Undervalued Pitcher with Upside
Aug 19, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Jeff Samardzija is one of the most interesting players in this upcoming free agency class. He has been awful for the Chicago White Sox this season, currently sitting with a disastrous 4.96 ERA. Samardzija’s 4.23 FIP this season suggests that there has been a little bit of bad luck involved, but he is undoubtedly getting hit harder now, than ever before.
Samardzija has allowed an MLB leading 228 hits on the season. The longball has killed him as well, as he has allowing an American League leading 29 homeruns. His 118 earned runs on the season are also the most in all of baseball. Simply put, Samardzija has been bad, even among the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball.
His disastrous 2015 season is baffling, as Samardzija had always had success as a starting pitcher in the past. In fact, when Oakland traded for him before the 2014 MLB trade deadline, Samardzija was considered to be one of the best young arms in all of baseball. The Athletics traded a large haul for Samardzija because they thought he would lead them to a long postseason run.
Samardzija continued to be good for the A’s last year, ending his 2014 season with an impressive 2.99 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 219.2 innings pitched. The talent is there for Samardzija to succeed, but for whatever reason he struggled with the White Sox.
Signing Samardzija would clearly be a risky move. It is possible that he was exposed this season, and it was just the beginning of a downward spiral. However, I am not seeing anything that really suggests that. He is good, his stuff is for real and I think the Red Sox should target him as a free agent.
Samardzija’s value on the open market has obviously changed after his performance this season, but I see an opportunity to strike potential gold. He would join the Red Sox starting rotation that is filled with mid-tier options, and he would immediately have the most upside.
As we have seen, the downside is also real, but if Samardzija can get back to anything close to his 2014 season, the Red Sox may find their ace for a relatively cheap price.
Next: Xander Bogaerts: Boston Red Sox's Star in Making