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The Boston Red Sox once again finished a disappointing season, ending up in the basement of the American League East for the third time in the past four years. After a contentious offseason which began with ace starting pitcher Jon Lester signing with the Chicago Cubs in free agency, the Red Sox compounded their problems by opening their checkbook for free agent flops Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.
They also overpayed 40-year old closer Koji Uehara, traded for Robbie Ross, and signed Craig Breslow and Alexi Ogando to anchor the bullpen. Uehara was injured, Ogando was untrustworthy, Breslow continued to trend downwards, and Ross was forced to take a larger role than anyone ever expected of the lefty specialist.
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In the starting rotation they traded for Rick Porcello and Wade Miley, and signed Justin Masterson to a hefty one-year contract. With inconsistent Joe Kelly already on board and Clay Buchholz again ending up on the disabled list, the rotation was a mess.
While the playoffs are still a ways away, there is no doubt that new President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is already reviewing and analyzing his current roster and trying to see what pieces are fits and which are trade bait. With former general manager Ben Cherington’s fingerprints all over this current cast, expect Dombrowski to work to make his own mark.
Dombrowski likes to build teams through trades. Identifying tradeable commodities already on the roster is his main concern at this point of the offseason. As such,here are the top players currently on the roster grouped in their anticipated fit for the 2016 Red Sox.
Next: The Untouchable Players
Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
UNTOUCHABLES:
- David Ortiz, DH
- Mookie Betts, OF
- Xander Bogaerts, SS
- Eduardo Rodriguez, SP
- Henry Owens, SP
- Blake Swihart, C
This is the group of players that have a less than 1% chance of being traded this offseason (or should be considered untouchable in the case of Owens and Swihart). Expect this group to be back in Boston next year.
Let’s be clear: David Ortiz is not going anywhere in the offseason. Ortiz is the face of the franchise and last link to 2004 Red Sox team. He will finish his career in Boston as long as he continues to put up decent numbers. Ortiz hit 37 home runs with a team leading .913 OPS at age 39. As long as he hits, the public relations disaster which would come from trading him is not worth it.
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Betts, Bogaerts, and Rodriguez used the 2015 season to push themselves into the building block category. All three are expected to be the nucleus of the franchise going forward. The 23-year-old Betts hit 18 home runs, stole 21 bases, had an .820 OPS, and moved seamlessly to the outfield.
Bogaerts is also just 23 years old and took a huge step forward on defense at shortstop after spending time at third base in 2014. Bogaerts had a .320 batting average and hit 35 doubles as his power slowly improved. Finally, Eduardo Rodriguez is a 22-year-old prospect who was 10-6 as a rookie with a 3.85 ERA. He had 98 strikeouts in 121.2 innings and showed maturity above his age on the mound.
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Owens and Swihart are on the fringe of the “too good to trade” status right now. Owens is a six-foot-six lefty, who at 23 years old is still filling out his frame. He has had just 11 starts in the major leagues, but having seen him in person in Pawtucket the past two seasons, his talent is evident. His struggles come from when he does not throw strikes and get ahead consistently. Ahead in the count, his changeup is simply unhittable.
Swihart is just 23 years old and was rushed to the majors due to injuries. He is a switch-hitter who rode his bat through the minor league system. Like Betts and Bogaerts, he is still developing his power and may be 3 or 4 years away from the 20-25 home run range. However, Swihart has worked hard at catcher and there is no reason to believe his receiving skills will not improve as they have in the minors.
Next: Almost Impossible to Move Players
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ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO MOVE:
- Pablo Sandoval, 3B
- Hanley Ramirez, UTIL
- Allen Craig, OF
- Koji Uehara, RP
- Dustin Pedroia, 2B
This group of players are overpaid, underperforming veterans. The contracts are completely out-of-whack with their production and no one is likely to be interested in picking up these contracts.
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Whiff, whiff, whiff. That’s the sound of fan’s opinions of having signed free agents Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez and traded for reclamation project Allen Craig. Ramirez came into the season bulked up while Sandoval was overweight. Neither came close to meeting expectations as Sandoval had defensive issues at third base and hit just .245 with a weak .658 OPS. Ramirez started strong and injuries and indifference sapped his season.
Craig is basically untradeable after spending most of 2015 in the minor leagues trying to find his swing again. The Red Sox owe him $20 million over the next two seasons and finding a team to pick up that combination of price and disappearing power would be a bigger coup than finding a taker for either Sandoval or Ramirez.
Beyond these three massive headaches for Dave Dombrowski to figure out, the Sox have two other veterans with big contracts and missed time due to injury. Pedroia is only 31 years old and is signed long-term. The ownership group may be reluctant to even think about trading the fan favorite second baseman. With his issues in the bullpen, the age of Uehara, and the $9 million he is owed in 2016, it seems unlikely the Red Sox would find a team desperate for him if they decided to try and move him.
Next: Players Ready to be Moved
Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
READY TO MOVE:
- Clay Buchholz, SP
- Rick Porcello, SP
- Ryan Hanigan, C
- Rusney Castillo, OF
These players are the overpaid, underperformers who should still have value to another team. They are not bad players, but they are better served as a piece in a trade for a player with upside.
Is there anyone left who really believes that Clay Buchholz is going to suddenly turn into a reliable top-end starting pitcher? He has reached 170 innings in a season just 3 times in 8 seasons and his one dominant and healthy season was in 2010. His 68 wins over 7 years as a regular in the rotation are underwhelming and his flashes of talent between stretches of inconsistency and injuries aren’t enough.
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Dave Dombrowski found a sucker for Rick Porcello not long ago (unfortunately it was the Red Sox) and now he has to try and trade Porcello and the insane $20 million per season he is owed going forward. Dombrowski knows who Porcello is and if he is worth the money or not, so his actions this offseason in regards to Porcello should be telling.
Hanigan is simply a defensive backup catcher on a team that can afford almost $4 million for a backup. However, if Christian Vazquez returns healthy after Tommy John surgery there is no need for the luxury of Hanigan and he could be a valuable trade piece.
Castillo is an interesting player as he is not a prospect at age 27, but the price tag of over $10 million per season makes him more of a trade piece than a keeper. Just 5 home runs and 10 doubles and a .647 OPS in half a season in the bigs is not the line of a future star. He may be a fringe starter or fourth outfielder at best and the Red Sox are better off letting another team try to wring production from Castillo.
Next: You Need to Overwhelm with the Offer Players
Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
OVERWHELM ME:
- Christian Vazquez, C
- Jackie Bradley Jr, OF
- Travis Shaw, 1B
- Brock Holt, UTIL
- Junichi Tazawa, RP
- Wade Miley, SP
- Robbie Ross, RP
This group of players are ones which the Red Sox have no intention of moving, but if another team is in love with the player and offers more than value, the Red Sox should not hesitate to make the move.
If Vazquez is healthy he is immediately the best option for the backup catcher spot. He is a plus-level defender behind the plate. If his rifle-arm recovers from Tommy John surgery he should be adequate offensively and make Ryan Hanigan expendable. He is not a great hitter, but his performance with the Sox in late 2014 showed he is capable of backing up Swihart.
Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Bradley and Shaw still have a lot to prove in Boston. Bradley could be the best outfield defender in the league if he can hit enough in the majors. He flashed surprising power and finished with an impressive .832 OPS this season. Shaw is a 25-year-old first baseman who will work on his versatility learning to play third base this winter. Shaw showed surprising power hitting 13 home runs in just 226 at bats and had an .822 OPS.
Brock Holt is the perfect utility player, being able to play both the infield and outfield and not be a liability defensively at any position. He is a solid hitter with a .349 OBP and had a .727 OPS. In the role he is in, he is worth keeping.
Tazawa proved once and for all that he is not a closer. What he can do is serve as the seventh inning setup arm and is a cheap option in a role he has thrived in for a few years. Ross is a similar average bullpen arm. Miley is a perfectly adequate fourth starter and in that role at his cost ($6 million per season) he is a good fit in Boston as a back-end starting pitcher.
Next: If You Want Him, You Can Have Him
Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
YOU WANT HIM, YOU CAN HAVE HIM:
- Heath Hembree, RP
- Brandon Workman, RP
- Tommy Layne, RP
- Jean Machi, RP
- Matt Barnes, RP
- Noe Ramirez, RP
- Steven Wright, RP
These players are fringe major league players–the bottom of the major league roster–who are perfectly fine in their role but if an upgrade is available it should be investigated. They are throw-ins in a trade.
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Not surprisingly, these are the Red Sox bullpen arms who cycled through during the season and show why the ‘pen is in such desperate need of an upgrade. Workman went under the knife and is looking at 2017 for a expected return to form. Layne is a typical lefty specialist and upgrades are going to be available.
Wright is 30 years old and still yo-yoing between Boston and Pawtucket. The picture is clear on what he is and that’s a fringe fill-in at best. Hembree and Machi are fine when you have no other options and are not in the pennant race, but neither is putting a team over the top.
Matt Barnes and Noe Ramirez may be the only two to move out of this group, as they still may have some untapped potential. However, while both have shown the ability to get minor league hitters out, neither has that one pitch to throw with two strikes and get major league hitters out in the late innings. If another team is interested, Dombrowski should not hesitate to include them to sweeten a trade.
Next: Boston Red Sox: Over/Under 3rd Place in A.L. East in 2016