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Boston Red Sox: Potential Free Agent Starting Pitchers

Hal Bent
Hal Bent

Chowder and Champions

Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Everyone knows the Boston Red Sox need to find starting pitching this off season. Who should they be targeting?

The Boston Red Sox and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski already made one of the biggest trades this hot stove season packaging a quartet of prospects for All Star closer Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel cost the Red Sox four minor leaguers who–although top-25 prospects–are not likely to have been playing in Fenway Park in 2016 or even 2017.

It was a positive move for the Red Sox in that they gained arguably the best closer in baseball without parting with major league pieces such as center fielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr., shortstop Xander Bogaerts, pitchers Henry Owens and Brian Johnson, or catcher Blake Swihart.

While outfielder Manuel Margot, infielders Carlos Asuaje and Javier Guerra, and pitcher Logan Allen are solid prospects, only Margot (with Bradley and Betts ahead of him in centerfield in Boston) was a “can’t miss” player.

While another trade to land a much-needed starter should be up next. The Red Sox have reportedly faced resistance when trying to deal for an ace. Teams like Oakland with starter Sonny Gray, the Mets with Matt Harvey, and Chicago with Chris Sale  are not letting their young, inexpensive aces go for anything less than a trio of major league ready prospects (and even just three may not be enough).

Either Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts may have to be part of the deal along with Owens, Swihart, and a top prospect like Yoan Moncada or Rafael Devers.

As much as Dave Dombrowski may want Harvey, Sale or Gray at the top of the rotation, the price may be simply too high. So if the trade market is not amenable for a starting pitcher, the next route is free agency. Let’s take a look at the top free agent pitchers and their potential fit in Boston:

Next: The Top Option

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David Price is the crown jewel of the off season free agent pitching market. the six-foot-six lefty is still in his prime at 30 years old. Price is not a National League pitcher having to transition to small ballparks and the designated hitter In fact, he spent his first six plus seasons at Tampa Bay in the American League East and was traded to Toronto this past summer.

Remember, it was Dave Dombrowski who was in Detroit when the Tigers swung the deal for Price and then traded him away last summer and is well acquainted with Price. To be clear, Price is going to go to whatever team meets his exorbitant price tag in free agency. However, having done his research on Price prior to making the trade in 2014, Dombrowski is well acquainted with the flame-throwing lefty.

Price has a career 104-56 record over seven full seasons (he started just one game in 2008) and has a career 3.09 ERA and 1,372 strikeouts in 1,441 innings. Where Price receives the most criticism is for his postseason performances. After pitching out of the bullpen and giving up on run in 5 ⅔ innings in 2008 with a win and save (against the Red Sox), he is just 1-7 since in 9 starts.

Regardless of the postseason record, Price is legitimate ace and has no fear of pitching in the American League East. Outside of Jon Lester (still hard to believe Boston let him get away) there is not a better fit at the top of the rotation in Fenway Park.

Price is likely to get a contract that will make him the highest paid pitcher of all time, but he will be worth the cost over the next four or five seasons. The question becomes whether they will engage in the bidding war for Price that will ensue this offseason.

Next: Another True Ace

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Zack Greinke is the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market and really, missing out on Price and getting Greinke would not be a big drop off. Greinke has been a star in Los Angeles after shaking off a few rough seasons in Kansas City while in his early twenties.

Part of the problem was dealing with depression and social anxiety disorder. He has since managed the issue with medication but the issue from a decade ago still raises red flags.

Greinke, however, should not have that diminish his value in any way. Greinke has a smooth throwing motion and is durable. Although 32 years old, he had his best statistical season last year in Los Angeles going 19-3 with a microscopic 1.66 ERA. He pitched 222 ⅔ regulars season innings and struck out 200 batters.

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The big question is whether Greinke will leave the National League where he is very comfortable.It will cost more than $30 million per season and six plus years to sign Greinke, and he may need to be overwhelmed to come pitch against the powerful lineups of the American League East.

Greinke is solid in the postseason and would no doubt be a favorite of owner John Henry as Greinke is obsessive in his preparation and buys into advance pitching analytics. Another plus is that Red Sox director of pitching analytics Brian Bannister is a former teammate of Greinke in Kansas City and turned him onto the advanced metrics.

Greinke may take fewer years for more money and that may fit Boston best–if they can convince him to come to Boston.

The biggest problem with trying to sign Greinke will be outbidding the Dodgers. Los Angeles has passed the New York Yankees as the team most willing to spend whatever it takes for the player they want. The Red Sox may want Greinke, but will likely find it difficult to top the Dodgers’ offer and bring him to Fenway Park.

Next: The Obvious Next Best

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The drop-off after Price and Greinke is sharp. Johnny Cueto is a solid starter but questions about his ability to lead a top pitching staff. Like Price, Cueto will be 30 years old when the season starts and will not cost the Red Sox their 12th overall pick in the 2016 amateur draft. The big question with Cueto is his ability to transition to the American League East.

Cueto was long a Cincinnati Red and won 92 games in 7 ½ years there. Kansas City picked him up at the trade deadline and he went 4-7 down the stretch with the Royals with a 4.76 ERA. Prior to the trade he sported a 2.62 ERA with 120 strikeouts in 130 innings. He did have an issue with elbow inflammation during the season but Kansas City was not deterred for trading for him.

In the playoffs, Cueto pitched effectively against Houston in the ALDS but was bombed by the Blue Jays in his only appearance in the ALCS. He rebounded with a complete game win in the World Series. Cueto may be a fit in Boston where his wind-up harkens fans back to legendary starting pitcher Luis Tiant.

Cueto is a bit of a wild card as the right-hander will not likely require the outlay of money like Price or Greinke, but his elbow injury and struggles in the American League could have the Red Sox shying away from him. If the medical issues checkout for Cueto, he could be an interesting fit at the top of the Boston rotation.

Next: The Wild Card?

Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Jordan Zimmermann was a pitcher much discussed last year as a potential target for the Boston Red Sox to target for a potential trade. The Washington Nationals instead kept Zimmermann and he again had a fifth straight solid season in Washington. Like Cueto, Zimmermann would cost the Red Sox their twelfth overall pick in the 2016 amateur draft as he was given a qualifying offer by Washington.

Zimmermann is another National League lifer who has questions about his ability to transition to the American League. Similar to Johnny Cueto, the price tag for Zimmermann will likely be much lower than the massive deals that will go to David Price and Zack Greinke.

However, even as a bargain comparatively, Zimmerman has never had to be the alpha dog in Washington with Stephen Strasburg and also Max Scherzer at the front of the staff.

Zimmermann has topped 190 innings pitched in each of the last four season and topped 150 strikeouts in each of those years. He has a career 3.32 ERA and 903 strikeouts in 1,094 innings. Zimmermann will cost what a top-of-the-rotation starter will cost, but not the length of contract like Price nor the price per season of Greinke.

However, for the cost of the twelfth overall pick and another contract similar to Rick Porcello, it seems excessive.

Zimmermann is similar to Cueto in that he is on the next level below Price and Greinke, but Cueto not costing the draft pick is a huge positive. Zimmermann may be the top starter in Boston next year, but he is a consolation prize if Price or Greinke do not sign in Boston. Zimmermann is a very good pitcher but has not proven to be a number one ace.

Adding Zimmermann and giving up the first round draft pick will be a hard sell to the media and fans for the Red Sox brass. Missing out on one of the top pitchers on the market and adding another version of Rick Porcello sounds like a recipe for a disaster for Dave Dombrowski.

Next: Best of the Rest

Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

If the Red Sox are not able to land a top free agent, there remains a solid group of starters on the market who may be much cheaper to sign and still deliver solid value. However, selling the signings to the fan base that just had to be sold on Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Clay Buchholz will be difficult.

Scott Kazmir is a lefty who was targeted by the Red Sox…six or seven years ago. Kazmir was out of the majors at one point and rehabilitated his career over the past few years. He went to Houston for the playoff run but struggled.

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Yovani Gallardo would be an intriguing signing…in 2012. He was solid in Milwaukee and was good in Texas but is a back-end of the rotation guy at this point of his career. The Red Sox are already loaded with those kind of pitchers.

Mike Leake is another back-end of the rotation starter who was an average National League starter in Cincinnati. Leake is not a strikeout pitcher and does not inspire any more confidence than Wade Miley. Leake is just 28, but is nothing more than another rotation guy who will contribute little.

Wei-Yin Chen is 30-year-old lefty who has pitched in the American League East. He is solid pitcher who would be a great fit in the middle of the rotation if it was not already stuffed full of middle of the rotation pitchers. If the Red Sox could unload someone like Rick Porcello to add a bullpen piece, a pitcher like Chen may make a great replacement at a decent price.

Hisashi Iwakuma is an interesting free agent in that he was a solid number two starter in the American League just a year or two ago. Iwakuma had an injury-plagued 2015, but finished strong. It really seems unlikely that the Mariners will let him get away, but again if a spot opens up in the rotation he could be a quality depth starter.

John Lackey could have pitched for the Red Sox last year for the MLB minimum contract. Instead, Boston had Joe Kelly and Allen Craig. Lackey is 37 years old and probably interested in staying in the National League. After the tumultuous first turn in Boston, it is doubtful Lackey would consider making a return trip, although he seems like someone the Red Sox should be interested in.

Jeff Samardzija was a name linked to the Red Sox over the past few years. He was great with bad Cubs teams and was surprisingly picked up by Oakland in 2014. He was dealt to the White Sox to be a one-two punch with Chris Sale. Instead his ERA was closer to 5.00 this year after being under 4.00 the past four seasons.

He is workhorse and will get paid, but whether he is really a top of the rotation starter remains to be seen. Boston could finally bite on Samardzija, but he is a step below Cueto and Zimmermann.

Next: Red Sox Should Consider Trade for 1B Freddie Freeman

The Red Sox need an ace and if the answer is free agency, they need to bring home the bacon and sign either Zack Greinke or David Price. Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann are the consolation prizes and may be just good enough to help get Boston back into the playoffs. However, the rest of the starters are not going to cut it for the front of the rotation and will signal another year destined for the bottom of the American League East.

Hal Bent

Hal Bent