The Kansas City Chiefs will be in town to face the New England Patriots on Thursday, and to get to know the opponent better I went straight to the experts.
This season, I’ll be breaking down each New England Patriots opponent by going to the site experts of the respective teams. First up in week 1 is the Kansas City Chiefs, so I had some questions for Arrowhead Addict and KC Kingdom. Matt Conner from Arrowhead Addict and Ben Almquist from KC Kingdom provided me with tons of insight heading into the game.
If Alex Smith is the starter to begin the season, how will the Chiefs offense look compared to how it may function with Mahomes at the helm?
Matt:
The Chiefs offense will look like it always has for the last four years. They will be patient, conservative, opportunistic. Travis Kelce is a known commodity. Tyreek Hill should blossom, although he’s dealt with abnormal drops this preseason. Those are nice targets for sure and Smith will do what he can with them, but Chiefs Kingdom is certainly excited about the future when the lid comes off this offense. However, that won’t happen until 2018 (or unless Alex is injured).
Ben:
While everyone in Chiefs Kingdom is excited about the future with Patrick Mahomes, it’s understood that he isn’t ready to be a starter just yet. That said, we know what to expect with Alex Smith. The Chiefs will continue running a ball-control offense that relies heavily on the run and short passing games. Smith won’t make a lot of big throws, but he also won’t turn the ball over much. There is a potential x-factor here with Smith essentially being in a contract year. He’s playing for his future, so we may see him take a few more risks than in previous years.
Is Travis Kelce continuing to progress, or is he going to remain a second fiddle to Rob Gronkowski in terms of the top TE in the NFL?
Matt:
It’s hard to see Kelce coming close to Gronk anytime soon only because the end zone opportunities afforded by catching passes from Tom Brady is a stark difference from Alex Smith. If Kelce were a Patriot, I’ve no doubt we’d be discussing this the other way around.
Ben:
We have nothing but high expectations for Travis Kelce. The Chiefs star tight end is one of the brightest young stars in the NFL right now and still has a ton of potential. I don’t know that I would say he’s on par with Rob Gronkowski just yet, but it’s getting very close between the two of them. They are very similar players, right down to the flamboyant attitudes. I’ll give Gronk the edge for now, but I do expect Kelce to challenge for that top tight end spot.
With the Spencer Ware injury, how do you see the snaps being split between Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller? (This question was posed before the cut of C.J. Spiller. Now, it looks like it’s all Charcandrick West behind Kareem Hunt.)
Matt:
Well, those two guys are the weakest of the bunch. West and Spiller aren’t completely interchangeable, but West is a decent scat back and Spiller is a reclamation project who helps as a potential returner. You’re going to see Kareem Hunt first and foremost, the team’s third round pick in the latest draft out of Toledo. He’s tough to bring down with incredible stamina, so if the game is close, expect to see lots of Hunt down the stretch.
Ben:
Well, first of all, Charcandrick West and CJ Spiller will largely be splitting backup duties. The man to watch is rookie running back Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs traded up for Hunt in the third round of the draft this year. I, for one, loved this pick as Hunt was one of my top prospects in the entire draft. He has shown that he can handle the workload the Chiefs give to their running backs. He’s got good vision and quickness, is a solid receiver out of the back field, and has shown that he is not an easy guy to tackle. West and Spiller will see some time, with Spiller likely getting the edge, but this year is all about Kareem Hunt.
Realistically, how do you believe the Chiefs will aim to slow down the Patriots offense?
Matt:
The Chiefs will let the Patriots (and every other team) get their yards, but they clamp down in the end zone. Brady is certainly not your average challenge, so it’s hard to say whether they can slow them or not, but Reid is a smart coach in his own right and likely has a few surprises waiting for Week 1. They have the defensive players to do it at all levels, but it will take everyone being at their absolute best.
Ben:
The only way you stop the Patriots offense is by creating pressure with your base four-man rush. If you can’t do that, then you had better be prepared for a shootout. Fortunately for the Chiefs, they have the talent to create that pressure. Justin Houston, Chris Jones, Dee Ford, and Allen Bailey are going to be the guys to watch. If they can disrupt Tom Brady early on in this game, it will create opportunities for the Chiefs to get aggressive. That leads to creating turnovers. It’s exactly how Kansas City beat the Pats back in 2014 in the infamous “On to Cincinnati” game.
Do the Chiefs have enough weapons to win in Foxboro on a banner night?
Matt:
If they do, it will be because special teams and defense also stepped up to impact the scoreboard. It will be a Tyreek Hill punt return or a Marcus Peters interception return or a Justin Houston strip sack.
Ben:
Yes, they do. The Chiefs should be bringing an improved run game over last year, and will also feature Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in the passing game. That gives them a good mix of ball-control offense and big play ability. Kansas City is also very dangerous in the return game and features one of the most opportunistic defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs have also shown over the past couple of years that they can match-up with just about anyone in the NFL. The Patriots should certainly be the favorite in this game, but you would be foolish to count Kansas City out of it.
Lastly, what is your score prediction for the game and who is your star of the game?
Matt:
Patriots 16, Chiefs 10. I like the Chiefs chances in 2017, but I think this first game is going to be too much. If the Chiefs have the star of the game, I’d hope it would be how Marcus Peters covers Brandin Cooks.
Ben:
I’m actually calling for the upset. I don’t have a lot of rhyme or reason for that, other than the Chiefs may match up against the Patriots better than any other team in the NFL. The early weeks of the season don’t really tell us much, as things will always change. That often means there are more than a few surprises in the first couple of weeks. I’ve got this down as one of them.
Both Matt and Ben also had some questions for me, so I’ll include those in my game preview here as well. I’ll start with the questions from Matt at Arrowhead Addict.
How hard is the Edelman injury to stomach?
In years past, this would have been a lot tougher to stomach. Of course, the Patriots offense is going to be a bit different now, but they should be fine thanks to the strong corps of receivers they have, and the fact that they still have Tom Brady slinging it. Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, and now Phillip Dorsett, will all have to step up big-time.
How will it force the offense to adjust? Do you worry about a bit of a learning curve there?
I think Danny Amendola will play a larger role than he has in the past. Chris Hogan should also see an uptick in his receptions in 2017 as compared to last season. The addition of Brandin Cooks gives the Patriots a ton of flexibility and we’re certainly expecting a lot from him. The learning curve shouldn’t be too difficult to overcome. Hogan and DA have all played at least one season with Brady in New England, and Cooks has a full training camp under his belt here. Maybe there’s a little rust in the first half, but nothing that lasts into week 2.
Everyone always focuses on the opponent’s morale about having to play the Patriots week to week, but how do you feel on your side having to play the Chiefs in Week 1?
The Chiefs are a tough team to face in a season opener. We all saw how things went a few years ago in KC before New England turned things around that season. The Patriots offense though is going to be hard to stop. On top of those receivers I mentioned earlier, they have a running back group with such versatility. I believe Mike Gillislee and James White will see most of the snaps, but Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis will also be involved. They could end up as major factors of the Chiefs decide to focus on passing game weapons. Also, I just don’t think the Chiefs have someone to cover Gronk one on one.
What are the biggest question marks for the Pats heading into the regular season?
Defensive end is for sure the biggest Patriots question mark this year. Rob Ninkovich retired, rookie Derek Rivers was injured and is out for the season, and the team released Kony Ealy. Trey Flowers is the top DE on the team, but behind him, there’s little else. New England looks like they’ll be gambling with Geneo Grissom and maybe Lawrence guy in the edge. They could also look to Dont’a Hightower to play an edge role also like Ninkovich did later in his career.
Now I’ll dive into the questions presented to me from Ben at KC Kingdom before giving you all my game prediction and X-Factor.
There are some high expectations for the New England Patriots this year. We’ve seen a lot of “super teams” and “teams of destiny” fail to live up to standards in the past. Is there any concern of that for the Pats this year?
I don’t think so. Of course, there is always a chance that New England doesn’t win the Super Bowl and that’s a loss of a season as far as Patriots fans are concerned, but I really don’t see much threat to them. I don’t think they’re a super team, they aren’t going out and trading for CRAZY talent. Yes, they added Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore, but even if they hadn’t, the expectation in New England would still be another Super Bowl banner.
The Chiefs defense has been one of the best in the league over the past few years. How will the Patriots go about attacking the strength of this Kansas City team?
I think the Patriots just have too many weapons for the Chiefs to handle. These teams haven’t played since January 2016, and both are really different. New England now has a 4-headed monster in the backfield and they’ve added Brandin Cooks to a strong WR group. Another year in the system for Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell should be huge, and both could break out this year. I also don’t think anyone on the Chiefs can cover Rob Gronkowski one-on-one, so if they double team him someone else will always be open for Brady. I do think the Chiefs are one of the toughest opponents the Patriots will face this season, but I still think New England can score over 30 points, while Kansas City may struggle without Spencer Ware and a game manager QB.
Travis Kelce has become one of the top tight ends in the NFL. What will the Patriots do to try and take away the middle of the field from him?
I think you may see a lot of double teams on Kelce in this game. New England has the ability to cover KC’s top two receivers one-on-one with Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore, so they can devote a little extra attention to Kelce. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Eric Rowe matched up on him with help from a linebacker or some safety help over the top from Devin McCourty or Patrick Chung. Kelce is going to be priority number 1 for the Patriots defense.
Tom Brady seems ready to play forever. What keeps him going, and how does it affect the future of the Pats organization?
Right now, Brady still looks as strong as ever. As much as people want to joke and make fun of his lifestyle choices, I think that’s a huge part of it. Tom isn’t putting anything in his body that he thinks will cause harm or won’t have a benefit. Others have begun to implement some of the TB12 lifestyle changes as well, like Rob Gronkowski, Hopefully, that can help keep Gronk healthy as well.
In terms of how much longer Tom plays, we have no idea. It definitely creates an internal struggle with the Jimmy Garoppolo situation, but I’d still take TB12 any day of the week. Garoppolo may very well have to be franchise tagged as a backup if we want to keep him in a Patriots uniform. It just makes me think back to how funny it is that people in New England used to think Matt Cassel was the QB of the future.
The Patriots made some big moves this offseason. Who is the one new player that opponents will need to account for the most?
I think it will end up being Rex Burkhead. He’s not as big of a name as Gilmore or Cooks, but he can fill many different roles. He can
He can line up in the backfield and run it, or swing out for a pass. He had a strong preseason, and as he gets more game reps I’m excited to see what Rex has to offer. Burkhead can also line up in the slot and I wouldn’t be surprised if he threw a pass at some point in this season as well.
Of course, Brandin Cooks will also be someone that teams have to account for. He could end up torching the Chiefs defense at some point as well. So, for now, I’m going with Burkhead, but if Cooks develops some chemistry with Brady, this could end up being a different story.
My game prediction
31-21 New England. I think the Patriots offense will be too much for the Chiefs and I believe the loss of Spencer Ware REALLY hurts the KC offense, but it’ll be close until the 4th quarter.
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Alex Smith isn’t going to light it up, but he won’t lose the game for the Chiefs. Ultimately, I think that he just doesn’t have enough fire power. Kansas City really seems to be leaning on rookie Kareem Hunt as a running back, and although he looked good in the preseason, he’s still a rookie. The Patriots have a solid front 7 with Alan Branch clogging holes in the middle, so I don’t think KC will have too much rushing success early on.
Brady and company meanwhile, can certainly put up points. I expect a little rust and some chemistry issues in the 1st quarter and a close game well into the second half, but then New England will take over. If the defense can make a few stops in the final frame, this is thr Patriots game all day. 14 of New England’s 31 points will come in the 4th quarter, with Tom Brady touchdown passes to both Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks.
Next: Predicting every 2017 NFL game
This is going to be one fun Thursday night, and I’m so glad the NFL season is finally here. Make sure you check back next week for my week 2 preview with Who Dat Dish as the Patriots take on the New Orleans Saints. Go Pats!