In week 5, the New England Patriots visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night in what is shaping up as an early must-win game.
Hey New England Patriots fans,
Who saw this coming? Anyone? Suddenly the defending Super Bowl champions find themselves with a 2-2 record entering Thursday night in what looks like the earliest must-win game of the season for the Patriots since 2014.
Of course 2014 was the year of “On to Cincinnati” after the Pats were blown out on National television by the Kansas City Chiefs and dropped to 2-2 as well. They went on to win all but two of the rest of their games that season en route to the team’s fourth Super Bowl victory.
Can this team match that team? Only time will tell. However, as Bill Belichick and many other coaches have said, you have to take it one week at a time. With that, let’s discuss the keys to victory in relation to the upcoming game tomorrow night on a short week at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Conditioning: mentally and physically
This has been a whirlwind of a start to the season after very nearly losing Week 3 and losing in Week 4 only to come back four days later for a road game in week 5. This will be the first regular season match-up for Tom Brady at Raymond James Stadium. As ESPN’s Mike Reiss reports, the last time the Patriots played the Buccaneers in a road game, it was in London instead of Tampa Bay.
In some ways, it is good to be playing on Thursday after a loss, since it allows the team less time to dwell on a loss.
However, with the Buccaneers coming off a tough win over the New York Giants and seeing how weak the Patriots have been on defense, it will most likely be a shark smelling blood situation for them. The Patriots need to bring their “A” game if they have any hopes of coming out of Tampa Bay with a winning record. Luckily, it is still early in the season so hopefully players are not too fatigued.
Coaches need to step up
More than the players though, the coaches need to get it together. Last year, Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia led the Patriots defense to the best scoring defense as they held opponents to an average of 15.6 points allowed per game, third best in the Belichick era. This year is massively different so far as the Patriots are allowing a horrible 32 points per game this year.
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That has to change. It starts with Belichick, but it falls to Patricia and his play calling as well. It is possible he is not dealing with the influx of new personal well, but other than that I cannot spot the reason the drop-off. He just needs to get it together.
As for the offensive side of the ball, even though the Patriots are scoring 32.25 points per game, on target for 516 points this season, they are still not completely comfortable. Per ProFootballTalk, Tom Brady is on target to take a career high 52 sacks. That is unacceptable for any quarterback, let alone one in the final years of his career. The biggest problem is a combination between the play-calling and the players, but it starts from the top. Belichick along with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels need to find a way to keep Brady upright.
With Julian Edelman lost for the season, it is much harder to go back to the comfortable short passing schemes they are used to. Also, with the addition of Brandin “Cookies” Cook, this offense feels more like a vertical offense first and an intermediate passing offense second. So if it is a vertical offense, the coaches need to find Brady to sit in the pocket.
Players need to step up
While the play-calling has its own problems, the players are putting themselves in bad situations on both sides of the ball. They need to start acting more like a team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The defense almost feels like how we talk about our fears of the Boston Celtics not jelling. It seems like they are not in the right places at the right time.
There are communication break-downs every game. There are an elevated number of defensive penalty calls in critical situations, and offensive penalty calls as well, though as
Rob Gronkowski rightly stated:
"“If the consistency was there 100 percent then I’d be cool whatever it is. But one week we’re told we can play [and] it really isn’t going to be called. They can hold and you can slap off their hands and then the next week it’s if you touch the guy it’s a P.I. I just wish I knew the consistency so then I can base my game off that in practice and be prepared for the game and know the rules going in.”"
Bill Belichick once said that he would rather his whole team did the wrong thing than some players do it right, because if the whole team does it wrong, at least there is good communication. This is the type of communication the captains of the team need to get the team in line.
Who are they: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are lead by third year quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston has shown flashes of promise, but has not put it all together. However, similar to other quarterbacks of his age, he can really deliver at times. Hopefully this week will not be one of those weeks, but with the state of the Patriots defense, I would bet he has a big week.
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As for offensive playmakers, Mike Evans is a game changer whenever he steps on the field. However, unlike in years past, he is not alone. Desean Jackson joined the team this year, and while he only has 143 yards and a touchdown, he is a potential touchdown every time he is one the field. Per Foxsports, at 2-1, the Buccaneers are off to their best start since 2011. In terms of a running game, Jacquizz Rodgers averaged 5.2 yards per carry last week and seems to be creating balance for the team.
On defense, the usual players are banged up for the Buccaneers, as Lavonte David and Gerald Mccoy were injured earlier in the season, even though Mccoy played this past Sunday. David is not expected to play Thursday with a high ankle sprain keeping him out. Brent Grimes leads the back-end for the Bucs.
Final Prediction:
In a reversal from last week, New England Patriots 33 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30.
Squib Notes
Danny Amendola: Still Brady’s go-to receiver on gotta have it type plays.
Patriots offense – The Bucs defense is banged up and the Pats offense should be able to find the holes. The question is just if they can find a way to hold the Tampa Bay offense at bay.
Thursday night: I know one was the beginning of the season, but I cannot remember the last time that the Patriots played two Thursday night games so close together.
Team spirit: I know it is the fan in me talking, but I cannot believe the coaches, but more the players will let themselves fall to a losing record. The last time they had a losing record was 1-2 in 2012 and beyond five games, they haven’t had a losing record since 2002.
Raymond James Stadium: Even though Brady has never played there in the regular season, he has played there five times in the preseason, most recently in 2012
New York Jets: Why are they 2-2? With some predicting they would go 0-16 in search of a very good quarterback draft class next year, it is a surprise to see them at 2-2.
Last word on last week
It was hard to watch a Tom Brady comeback fall short, but it is the NFL for a reason and even though the media and fans alike sometimes put the Patriots ahead of other teams, everyone belongs to be here, even the Jets. With that said, I think this team has not found its identity yet, especially not on defense.
Next: New England Patriots v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers projections and predictions
Part of that boils down to captain Dont’a Hightower not being with the team early on to aid the communication. I hope the team finds a way to make critical stops when it needs to, especially against running quarterbacks, because if the team makes it to the Super Bowl (a big if at this point), they are most likely going to be facing a running quarterback. As for last week, while the offense seems to be finding its stride somewhat, the defense is anything but.