With Tom Brady turning 41, the New England Patriots look as vulnerable as ever entering the 2018-19 season.
In a year filled with Alex Guerrero questions, conspiracy articles, and Julian Edelman suspension theories, the New England Patriots want nothing more than to kick off the 2018-19 NFL regular season.
Unfortunately, this regular season may feature the Pats at their most vulnerable during the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era.
Brady is now 41, and not getting any younger, meaning the organization has to be even more careful with his aging body than normal. Not only did New England lose Jimmy Garoppolo to the San Francisco 49ers (for a gargantuan contract), but the Pats’ next best option is Brian Hoyer, who has not won a game in his past six starts, according to Pro Football-Reference.
In fact, the only time Hoyer has really had any success as a starting quarterback is when he was with the Houston Texans back in 2015.
Take that with a grain of salt though. Houston was only 9-7, and won the division with that record.
If the Pats were to finish with that record, they’d probably still make the postseason, especially in the weak AFC East, but it wouldn’t be ideal.
For the first time since the mid-2000s, the Pats have more questions than answers.
Here, we are going to look at three problems worth noting for New England heading into Week 1 of the 2018-19 NFL regular season.
1. The offensive line
In a Week 2 preseason win over the Philadelphia Eagles back in August, the New England Patriots first round pick Isaiah Wynn went down with a torn right achilles, keeping him out for the rest of the season.
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He came in to play right tackle late in the first quarter, and it was his first taste of preseason action. The blow to the offensive line only made things worse for a team that already lost Nate Soldier to the New York Giants.
New England must now rely on backup Trent Brown to protect Brady’s blind side, something that could cause problems considering Brown has only played right tackle for most of his career with San Francisco.
The seventh round pick from 2015 is ready to step-up into this uber-important role, and offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has spoken highly of him, saying he’s got ‘dynamic skills’ for the position.
New England did finish third in offensive line play, according to Pro Football Focus, and still have Joe Thuney, Dave Andrews, and Shaq Mason returning to help protect Brady.
Extending Mason’s contract to 5 years and $50 million was integral, especially since he’s routinely been one of the best run blockers in the league since 2016. In fact, on outside zone runs, the Pats averaged 1.76 yards-per-carry, which was good for sixth in the league in 2017, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s guaranteed at least $30 million over the next three years.
With uncertainty at left tackle, Belichick will most likely use outside runs to the right side so Brown can become comfortable in his newer situation on the left. Either way, Brady’s blind side protection needs to be top priority, considering he’s 41.
2. A thin receiving core
Tom Brady has shown he can play with any receivers throughout his storied career. The best group he ever played with was probably the 2007 crew featuring Troy Brown, Randy Moss and Wes Welker.
Normally however, Brady usually has only one or two solid receivers, and the genius of Belichick usually assists with player development. Recently, receivers in New England have become a revolving door.
Brandin Cooks acted as a one-year rental in 2017 before signing a large contract with the Los Angeles Rams. Danny Amendola signed with the Miami Dolphins.
Belichick is also great at finding talent (a la Chris Hogan during the 2016-17 Super Bowl run). Even with the thin receiving corps in 2011, the Pats still made the Super Bowl.
However, this year seems different, and even more unusual. Star receiver Edelman is out for the first four games because of his PED suspension.
As mentioned before, Amendola is on Miami now, and Cooks is gone to New Orleans. On top of that, James White left for the Tennessee Titans, and although he’s listed as a running back, Belichick definitely enjoy using him in the slot position.
Even former Bills deep threat Jordan Matthews was released, and Eric Decker retired. For at least the first four games of the season, the Pats will start with Cordarelle Patterson (who’s usually a special teams guy), Phillip Dorsett (who only caught 12 passes in 2017), and Chirs Hogan as their main group.
According to The Ringer, Tom Brady was fifth in average pass length in 2017, but with lesser options, Brady may need to return to the short ball, namely with guys like James White and Rex Bulkhead.
Hopefully, Edelman can return without any rust. Fans shouldn’t also forget, we still have Rob Gronkowski; the greatest tight end ever when healthy.
3. The defense
Right now, the New England Patriots are slated as the 29th best defense in the league, according to NFL.com, giving up an average of 366 yards per game in 2017. Belichick’s squad had a knack for giving up big games to lesser known quarterbacks in that year, especially Alex Smith and Nick Foles (the latter one hurts).
In the 2017 Super Bowl, the defense gave up 538 total yards to Foles, and surrendered 41 points, which was the second most in the Belichick and Brady era. The most points they’ve given up occurred in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs (with 42). Not a good way to end the year.
The Pats ranked 31st in rush defense, and gave up 6.1 yards per carry in the Super Bowl against the Eagles. The organization also lost Malcolm Butler and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, meaning this could also be a trial and error type year with the Pats organization refusing to hire another coordinator.
They did sign Atlanta Falcons star defensive end Adrian Clayborn, and he hopes to start across from Malcolm Brown and Danny Shelton. Clayborn is a much-needed signing, especially since he recorded a career-high 9.5 sacks in 2017 (it’s worth noting that six of those came in one game against a beat-up Cowboys team).
Nonetheless, it’s a critical pick-up for a thin defensive line, notably because of Kony Ealy’s poor performance and Rob Ninkovich’s retirement.
Eric Rowe looked pretty incompetent in the Super Bowl, giving up 137 yards in all on 6-7 from Foles. New England’s cornerback play was particularly underwhelming throughout the entire 2017 season, including the playoffs.
With Dont’a Hightower and Trey Flowers back, this defense may not be as bad as last year’s. Regardless, the secondary is the weakest it’s been in quite awhile.
The defense was probably at its best in the middle of the regular season in 2017 (where it became a top ten defense ironically for a short period of time), most likely because of Belichick’s greatness. New England needs more of that to occur for any progress to happen in 2018, especially without Patricia at the helm.