Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots are an organization stuck in the past and this is why it’s hurting them.
is the advancement of the NFL starting to leave the New England Patriots behind?
It is natural for NFL coaches in particular to have a strong confirmation bias. For our non-psychology fans, this refers to the tendency to stick to your beliefs even when there is evidence to support otherwise.
It has become clear throughout the season that the lack of adaptation of Bill Belichick and the Patriots is starting to hurt them.
Scheme over team mantra is slowly phasing out
After the early dynasty period, the New England Patriots got a reputation for trading their stars at the right time, and be able to win with a largely inexpensive roster. All the jokes about the team being able to make stars out of Walmart employees were seemingly valid.
Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, and Rob Ninkovich are all guys who immediately come to mind that were castoffs and became productive members of past Super Bowl teams. This of course added to the narrative and to be honest, it worked. No name players that had a great work ethic and wanted to win seemed to thrive.
Bill Belichick never needed top players to win because he was just that much smarter than everyone else. He was a coach like a league had never had before, and it was a huge reason for the teams’ immense success. However, the league seems to be catching up.
The emphasis on unique offensive systems is at the forefront of today’s NFL. Sean McVay and Matt Naggy are great examples of opening up the playbook in ways that have never been seen.
Coaches are becoming way more creative with their offensive approach, and it is showing by the record numbers being put up on that side of the ball. Remember when McDaniels and Belichick were praised as geniuses for changing the playbook week-to-week?
Teams seem to be taking the philosophy and multiplying it to the 3rd degree. But none of these systems would work without megastars.
Falling behind the best
The Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs are the easiest examples in making this case. The two best offenses in the NFL are lead by two young studs in Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff, as well as a great system. That is not the secret sauce though, it is the players that surround them who make it work.
The Rams have superstar tailback, Todd Gurley, 1000-yard receivers in Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, as well as one of the best slot receivers in the game in young Cooper Kupp. All of these guys are well above average, and when putting a decent system around them, they’re virtually unstoppable.
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The Chiefs comparably have an absolute stud in Tyreek Hill, the most consistent TE in the NFL in Travis Kelce, and before his huge scandal Kareem Hunt. Once again, all way above average, and all running the system to perfection.
The difference is that the NFL has adapted to the Patriot way of thinking offensively, and are flat out doing it better. Even on defense, it is happening. Teams are less remaining on scheme fits and just acquiring the best talent they can in hopes that it translates to success on the field.
Sticking with the Rams, they acquired zone heavy corner Marcus Peters, in a defense that is very reliant on press coverage. They made the move because they wanted the best possible players on the field, rather than an average player who may cater to the style of play a little more. It is a bold strategy, but one that makes sense and has seemingly been effective.
The mantra was that the scheme was more valuable the team, but that begged the question “Why can’t you have both”? It is evident that the teams trying to do such formula are having success, and can definitely defeat the current state of the New England Patriots.
Reliance on fading talent
This is the huge one. It is almost incomprehensible the lack of effort Bill Belichick and rest of the New England Patriots organization has made in establishing a crop of young future talent on this football team.
Just look at the Quarterback position. Tom Brady is 41 years old and yet, he has no heir to his throne. Of course, he is still playing at a high level, but who knows how long he has left. If I were putting money on it, I wouldn’t see him playing past next season. The last two QBs they wanted to take over for Tom were, of course, Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garappolo and both were shipped off.
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Being that Tom is still around, it would be extremely beneficial to have him mentor a young Quarterback. Tom isn’t the only one who is getting older.
Looking at the back end of the defense, both Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are on the wrong side of 30 and it definitely shows at points. Of course, Duron Harmon is younger and a solid rotational player, but he has struggled mightily and would be a liability as a starter.
Opposite of Trey Flowers and Stephon Gillmore, the New England Patriots lack rising talent on the defensive side of the football. The play is sufficient, but the other linebacking spots, as well as the edge rush positions, really lack above average talent. The “bend don’t break” mentality always seems to work in the end, but they could always actually have consistency and just be a good defense.
The issue is clear: Tom Brady won’t save the subpar roster around him for much longer. In 2011 so to say, the Patriots had an incredible roster mainly centered around TB12. The main difference? He was not carrying a ton of subpar talent. This team would be nothing without Tom.
At least then if they had a lesser QB like Tony Romo, you could at least see them being in a similar spot because of the full roster. Now if they even had a Quarterback of around Kirk Cousins level, the Patriots probably wouldn’t even be leading the AFC East.
The organization is holding on to the narrative that Tom can do it all himself, and that once he leaves the train won’t stop moving.
Outside of Sony Michel, the organization has done nothing to put adequate pieces together in order to have a lasting team after the Brady era. For some reason everyone is stuck in 2004 and thinks they dynasty will never end. The organization needs to wake up, and make moves for the future in order to put the franchise in the best possible position it can be come 3-5 years down the line.