With one of the most hyped AFC Championship games in recent memory looming this Sunday, the typically dominant New England Patriots find themselves in an unfamiliar position. As the underdog.
This Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium it will be frigid outside when the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots take the field for the AFC Championship.
It will be the ultimate battle of the new and old guard of the AFC fighting it out for a shot in the Super Bowl.
The old guard being Tom Brady and the 18-year dynasty of the New England Patriots. The new guard being young hot-shot Patrick Mahomes and his flashy offense that has proved nearly unstoppable this entire season.
The New England Patriots will certainly have their hands full this weekend if they want to reach their third straight Super Bowl and be the first team to accomplish that feat since the Buffalo Bills of the early ’90s.
Let’s look at the three key factors that could lead to a New England victory this Sunday and have Tom Brady letting Patrick Mahomes know his time is coming…but not yet.
1. Ball control/keep the crowd out of it.
This game will not be winnable for the New England Patriots if they decide to get into a shootout as they did in a 43-40 victory over the Chiefs in Week 6 in Foxborough.
Does that mean the Patriots can’t still put up points? Of course not. What it means is they need to use the strategy that so many teams have attempted to use against them in the past by controlling the ball and keeping Brady off the field. That’s what the Patriots will need to do to Patrick Mahomes.
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Simply put, the more possessions that Mahomes gets, the more likely he will be shredding your defense for big plays. Even though he basically is a rookie, we’ve all seen enough of what Mahomes can do to know that there isn’t a way to shut him down. It’s all about limiting your exposure.
The Patriots can do this by dominating in the running game along with the short passing game. Even with the cold weather, I would consider a 3-4 minute touchdown drive as a bad thing this week. The Patriots need to control the ball and have 7-8 minute drives that keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines.
If you can cut his time on the field by 3-4 possessions during the course of the game, that could be 1-2 touchdowns you’re keeping off the board.
This means Sony Michel will undoubtedly need to have another big game as he did against the Chargers last week. And even more importantly, HANG ON TO THE BALL. It’s not that Michel is fumble-prone, but when we start thinking about a rookie running back carrying the ball 20-25 times in a big game like this, it makes me a little uneasy.
Also, in very frigid games like we will see Sunday night, if you can keep the crowd quiet and thinking about how cold they are compared to cheering their team on, it can play a huge factor in terms of the momentum.
2. Bill Belichick needs to remind everyone why he is the GOAT.
I recently watched a 30 for 30 on ESPN called “The Two Bills” about Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells and their time together as coaches on the New York Giants.
It was a great insight into the two legends, but one of the main pieces I pulled from the film was some of the defensive schemes Belichick came up with to stop prolific offenses like the Joe Montana led 49ers and the Jim Kelly led Buffalo Bills.
It’s something we saw him also do in the early days of the Patriot’s dynasty against Peyton Manning or in the ‘01 Super Bowl against the Rams.
It has felt like years since we have seen Belichick work his magic and slow down a prolific offense. Most notably his inability to do so last year in the Super Bowl against the Eagles.
This Sunday can be Belichick’s swan song and further cement him as the greatest coach of all time if he can scheme a way to confuse Mahomes and limit the Chiefs dynamic offense.
As great as Mahomes is, we must remember he is still very young in quarterback years. There is a lot that he still hasn’t seen in terms of personnel’s and pre-snap disguises.
There is one guy that has more in his bag of tricks than David Copperfield, no other than the “hooded one” himself. He must attempt to confuse Patrick Mahomes and bait him into either a critical turnover or find a way to limit what he does best, rolling out of the pocket and making plays.
If Bill Belichick can do just that and walk off the frozen field in Kansas City with his record 9th AFC Championship, we may need to start considering him as the greatest coach of all time among any sport, not just football.
3. Win the Special Teams battle
It may not sound sexy, but special teams will play a huge factor in the outcome of this game. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs ranked 2nd overall in Special Teams rating this season. The Patriots who are normally among the best in the league ranked 16th.
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With the weather predicted to be in the teens to low 20s it will affect the kicking game possibly more than any other aspect. It means a 40 yd field goal really turns into more like a 45-50 yd kick.
It also means that a punt that might get 4.5 seconds of hang time might only get 3.5 to 4 seconds. It might not sound like a huge difference, but when speed-demon Tyreek Hill is back there catching the punt, you better believe it becomes a major issue and can give even the best special teams coaches nightmares.
It will also affect the kickoff game as well and could lead for more returns on kickoffs than normal. As scary as that sounds for the New England Patriots as well, it’s an area they will need to take advantage of with their own kick returner in Cordarrelle Patterson.
A huge kick return for a touchdown could absolutely swing this game in either direction. For a team on the road like the Patriots, if they allow it to happen and it enables the crowd in Arrowhead to explode, it can be a nail in the coffin type of play.
Belichick who rarely overlooks anything will certainly be having his guys catching punts and kicking field goals in the middle of a New England snowstorm this week. He knows as well that this could be a major factor in this game.
In Summary
It will take maybe the best performance of the Patriot’s season to overcome the Chiefs this weekend, but anyone that really doubts they can do so must have not watched this team for the past 18 years.
They are embracing the underdog label going into this game. Think back to any other time in the history of this dynasty when they were doubted or told that they have no chance. It almost never ends well for their opponent.
There was a reason I didn’t put Tom Brady as a key factor this week. It’s because we all know he will always show up when the lights are brightest. I don’t care that he is 41 years old. He’s always been a big game player and he always will be.
Give Brady a little extra fuel like telling him “he sucks” or that his team has “no chance” and you might as well be using kerosene to put out a forest fire. He will be ready and if the New England Patriots can accomplish these keys to the game, they will be getting ready for their third straight Super Bowl trip.