A look at how the Boston Red Sox can fix the starting pitching rotation for the 2020 season and beyond.
Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale does not need Tommy John surgery.
Whew!
But the Red Sox pitching problems run deeper than one, albeit important, left arm. Here’s how Dave Dombrowski can fix the pitching staff and position the Red Sox as World Series contenders again for 2020.
Red Sox fans and players alike breathed a sigh of relief when they heard that staff ace Chris Sale does not need surgery on his left elbow. However, Sale is out for the rest of the regular season, and without him the Red Sox already slim playoff hopes dimmed even further.
Which means its time for Dave Dombrowski and friends to think about how to build a deeper pitching staff for the 2020 season to better weather the injuries and struggles of multiple pitchers that defined this lost season.
To do that, the Boston Red Sox should sign a few low cost veterans, embrace the strategic advantages of using an opener and find ways to acquire more young talent.
You can never have too much pitching
Near the end of Spring Training in 2006, the Boston Red Sox traded pitcher Bronson Arroyo to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Wily Mo Pena.
Arroyo established himself as solid major league pitcher and fan favorite, but with the newly acquired Josh Beckett joining holdovers Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Matt Clement and David Wells, there was no room in the rotation for Arroyo. Both GM Theo Epstein and manager Terry Francona believed the Red Sox had ample pitching depth and needed Pena’s right-handed power.
Those 2006 Red Sox ultimately underachieved to an 86-76 record, though Pena more than did his part, posting an .838 OPS as Trot Nixon‘s platoon partner in right field. It was the starting pitching that fell apart. Beckett posted a career worst (to that point) 5.01 ERA. Clement and Wells combined for just 20 mostly awful starts.
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Top prospect Jonathan Papelbon was redeployed in the bullpen after Mike Timlin failed as the team’s closer. So the team cycled through a collection of has-beens and never-weres, including Kyle Snyder, Lenny Dinardo, Jason Johnson, Kason Gabbard, Kevin Jarvis and David Pauley, before ultimately giving a rotation spot to 22-year-old Jon Lester.
Fast-forward to 2019 and clearly those who failed to learn from the past were doomed to repeat it. This year’s Red Sox edition opened with a solid starting five of Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi. And like 2006, a key veteran, in this case Porcello, struggled through a career worst season, while others (Sale, Price, Eovaldi) were felled by injuries and ineffectiveness. And again, like 2006, the Red Sox did not have the pitching depth to overcome it, this time turning to journeymen Hector Velazquez, Ryan Weber, Andrew Cashner, Brian Johnson and Josh Smith to eat the innings left on the table by the nominal starting five.
On the other hand, two of baseballs best teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros, bucked convention by entering this season with seven or eight pitchers good enough to be among a team’s top five. The Dodgers opened with Ross Stripling and Julio Urias in their bullpen, knowing that Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Walker Buehler were unlikely to make through a 162 game schedule intact.
Sure enough, Hill made only ten starts, leaving ample opportunities for not only Stripling and Urias but also top prospects Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. At no point this season have the Dodgers started a pitcher who probably shouldn’t be facing major league hitters.
Similarly, Houston opened with a sold big three in Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, but with open questions about their fourth and fifth starters. However, the candidates for those starts included solid major pitchers Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh along with highly regarded pitching prospects Josh James, Framber Valdez and Forrest Whitley.
Like the Dodgers, even those eight weren’t enough and the Astros gave starts to Jose Urquidy, Corbin Martin and Roger Armenteros before dipping into their considerable prospect depth to acquire Zack Greinke and Aaron Sanchez at the trade deadline.
Dombrowski needs to take a page out of the Dodgers book and go into 2020 with more depth, both in talent and experience, behind his starting five. Maybe Darwinzon Hernandez can be the Red Sox’ Urias, or Tanner Houck their Josh James. But if not, Alex Cora cannot be left merely with options like Velazquez, Johnson or Steven Wright for those inevitable times when one of the starting five struggles or is injured. Had Dombrowski built some real depth, perhaps by signing a low cost veteran like Gio Gonzalez (for 1 year and $2 million) or Tommy Milone (minor league deal) to work out of the bullpen or at Pawtucket until the need arose, the Boston Red Sox might still be within striking distance of a wild card spot instead of playing out the string.
With Porcello likely departing via free agency and Sale’s outlook clouded by injury, the need for pitching depth next season will take on added urgency. When the music stops after the bigger contracts are handed out to the likes of Ryu, Cole and Zack Wheeler, reasonably priced free agent pitchers like Ervin Santana, Brett Anderson or perhaps even the likes of Hill, Michael Pineda and the aforementioned Gio Gonzalez could all be looking for work. Dombrowski should keep their agents on speed dial and aim to bring a few of them to Boston.
Embrace the Opener
In 2018, the Tampa Bay Rays introduced the baseball world to the concept of “the opener,” essentially a bullpen day featuring a nominal starter expected to pitch just one or two innings followed by a “bulk reliever” for the next three to five innings. Led by openers Ryne Stanek (who started 29 games but only pitched 66.1 innings), Diego Castillo and Sergio Romo and bulk relievers Ryan Yarbrough (who started but six games but racked up 147.1 IP and 16 wins) and Yonny Chirinos, the concept worked incredibly well as the Rays overachieved their way to a 90-72 record.
Other teams have since embraced the concept. The Oakland A’s even used an opener in last season’s AL Wild Card game, with decidedly negative results. And in spite of adding traditional starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow to their rotation, the Rays have continue the practice this season and currently hold the American League’s second wild card spot.
However, to truly embrace the opener means far more than a willingness to schedule more bullpen days during the season. Looking closer, there is a clear strategy in the way the Rays deployed their openers and bulk relievers that the Red Sox could benefit from.
Stanek, for example, is a righty and one of the major’s hardest throwers, averaging about 98 MPH on his fastball with tremendous spin, while also featuring a slider and a splitter to keep hitters off balance. He’s got the kind of stuff you want facing a team’s best hitters, e.g. the top of the lineup. Fellow openers Castillo and Andrew Kittredge are cut from similar cloth.
Yarbrough, on the other hand, is a lefty whose fastball seldom cracks 90 and whose best, and most frequently thrown pitch, is an 85 MPH cutter. Stylistically, they could not be more different. Which makes them an ideal opener / bulk reliever pairing. If the goal of every major league pitcher is to disrupt a hitter’s timing, these two do a fine job of that. Fellow bulk relievers Chirinos and Jalen Beeks, while harder throwers than Yarbrough, still typically clock in 5-8 MPH slower than the opener they follow.
A similar dynamic could be created with pitchers currently on the Boston Red Sox staff. David Price, for example, no longer can reach back for the mid-90s heat he once featured in his younger days. His fastball now sits around 92 MPH and, it could be argued, he should be featuring his very good off-speed pitches more often. Maybe he’d see better results leading with his curve and cutter over five or six innings if he followed a flame throwing righty like Eovaldi or Matt Barnes?
In a similar manner, the hard throwing lefty Hernandez seems tailor made to open in front of the softer tossing Porcello. And Wright and his knuckleball could open for just about anyone else.
Of course, an effective opener / bulk reliever combo is not just about pitch speeds and throwing arm, but also about pitch types, arm angle and approach. Colten Brewer, for example, throws about 90% cutters and curveballs, while Travis Lakins features a similar arsenal. But Cashner doesn’t throw a cutter and seldom throws curves, relying instead on his mid-90s fastball and a change that neither Brewer nor Lakins possess. Could pairing them up achieve better results for all of them?
In other words, to best maximize the varied talents on this Boston Red Sox pitching staff, it’s time for Cora to think about pitcher sequencing as a way of putting his pitchers in the best position to succeed. A carefully considered opener / bulk reliever strategy may help him do just that.
Great pitchers are made AND drafted
Quick, who was the last pitcher the Boston Red Sox selected in the first round of the amateur draft? That would be 2017, when the team selected Tanner Houck with the 24th selection in the first round. How about the last all-star pitcher the Red Sox drafted? That would be… 2006 2nd round pick Justin Masterson, who made a single all-star team with Cleveland in 2013.
Every GM and scout will tell you that drafting pitchers is a crap shoot. Plenty of highly regarded high school and college pitchers have failed to throw a single pitch in the big leagues, much less lived up to their all-star potential. For every Cole there’s a dozen Brien Taylors. And the opposite is also true. Jacob deGrom was a 9th round pick. Josh Hader didn’t hear his name called until the 19th round. Even Nolan Ryan lasted until the 12th round back in the day.
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But the Red Sox have seemed particularly snake bit when it comes to drafting and developing major league pitchers. The current rotation does not feature a single home grown prospect, unless you count the sporadic contributions of Brian Johnson (2012, 1st round).
E-Rod is the only regular Red Sox starter never to appear in a major league game for another team (he was acquired from the Orioles for Andrew Miller). The bullpen at least features a few pitchers drafted and developed in-house, including Barnes (2011, 1st round), Lakins (2015, 6th round) and Brandon Workman (2010, 2nd round).
Houck has moved quickly through the system and could factor into the team’s plans for the pitching staff in 2020, along with amateur free agent signee Hernandez and 2016 5th rounder Mike Shawaryn. Bryan Mata, an amateur signing like Hernandez, may be the team’s best hope for an impact starter in the minors.
But other recent top draft choices, including Jay Groome (2016, 1st round), Durbin Feltman (2018, 3rd round) and Teddy Stankiewicz (2013, 2nd round) seem to have a ways to go if they’re ever considered big league options. And 2013 1st rounder Trey Ball was such a miss that’s he’s turned to hitting in an effort to realize his major league dreams.
The Red Sox clearly need to reevaluate their approach to drafting and developing major league starting pitchers. Either that or they need to look at trading from a position of depth (an outfielder like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr.or Jarren Duran) or corner infielder (Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas) to infuse the system with high quality pitching prospects.
As the Red Sox learned the hard way this season, it gets expensive quickly if you have to constantly import established starting pitching from other teams. David Price is owed $31 million for the next three seasons. Sale is now on the books for $30 million for the next few seasons and $27.5 million for a couple more after that. Eovaldi is a relative bargain at just $17 million through 2022.
On the other hand, the Red Sox should look to the Cleveland Indians for how to build a sustainable pitching staff. For the last several years, the Indians success could primarily be attributed to the dynamic, mostly home grown starting pitching of Corey Kluber (acquired as a minor leaguer in 2010), Carlos Carrasco (acquired as a minor leaguer in 2009), Trevor Bauer (acquired after four major league starts in 2012) and Danny Salazar (signed as an amateur free agent in 2006).
More importantly, when the team lost Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar to injuries and traded Bauer to both cut payroll and acquire much needed hitting, the Indians plugged in the minimum salaried Shane Bieber (2016, 4th round), Mike Clevinger (acquired as a minor leaguer in 2014), Zach Plesace (2016, 12th round) and Adam Civale (2016, 3rd round) without missing a beat.
Sustainable success requires a constant infusion of young, minimum salaried talent, no matter the size of your payroll. The Boston Red Sox have found gems with the bat in Betts, Devers, Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and, most recently, Chavis. To compete in 2020 and beyond, they need to replicate that success on the mound as well.