Most experts believe the Boston Celtics took a step back from their championship aspirations this offseason. Here are three reasons why winning an NBA title this season is still well within this team’s reach.
If you believe the pundits, the Boston Celtics are only the third or fourth best team in the Eastern Conference. Most publications and odds makers have the C’s running behind the 76ers, Bucks and, in some cases, the Pacers for conference supremacy.
Meanwhile the Western Conference is as strong as ever, with the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz and Lakers among the teams battling to topple the suddenly vulnerable Warriors.
Without Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, can the Boston Celtics compete for an NBA title this season? Yes, they can. And here are the three biggest reasons why Mayor Walsh should keep the duck boats well-tuned for yet another championship parade through the streets of Boston next summer.
Kemba Surpasses Kyrie
Let’s get this out of the way right now: no, Kemba Walker is not a better player than Kyrie Irving.
By any statistical measure, Irving was the superior producer last season, besting Walker in every category other than points per game (PPG). Both players entered the NBA during the 2011-12 season and Irving’s career numbers surpass Walker’s across the board.
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That said, Irving also had the good fortune of spending his career playing alongside the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Love and Al Horford. Walker’s best teammates, on the other hand? Al Jefferson, Gerald Henderson and Nic Batum. Nothing against those guys, but let’s concede the Hall of Fame probably isn’t busy preparing busts for their enshrinement.
That’s not to suggest Irving’s talent or production is diminished in any way by the company he’s kept. He’s one the NBA’s best point guards, full stop. But context matters, and it’s reasonable to suggest that Walker was surrounded by a significantly inferior supporting cast. Joining Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart in Boston is a serious sidekick upgrade, and Walker’s numbers this season should reflect that.
Of course, basketball isn’t played by numbers. It’s played by living, breathing human beings full of thoughts and emotions. Studies show that happy people are more productive. And if one word were used to describe the 2018-19 Boston Celtics, “happy” would be at the bottom of the list. Irving may not have been the sole reason for the discord, but it’s fair to say his, um, unique leadership style, played a significant role in the team’s dysfunction.
Walker, on the other hand, has been praised for his leadership since his days in Storrs leading the UConn Huskies to the Division I title in 2011. Of his leadership style, his former coach Jim Calhoun remarked:
"“He brings special things to his teammates,” Calhoun said. “Trust me, I was always amazed how much his teammates loved him and followed him.”"
Similar praise followed Walker to the NBA and to Charlotte, where former teammate Jeremy Lin once said “Kemba taught me really what it means to be the leader of a team.” Walker is also already receiving high marks for his leadership of a very young Team USA.
In short, Walker may not individually be at Irving’s level, but with his leadership the whole may be greater than the sum of the parts.
Jayson Tatum Makes The Leap
How soon we forget:
Jayson Tatum fouls out 1 point short of tying the NBA record for playoff points by a rookie at 351, just behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
— Jared Weiss (@JaredWeissNBA) May 28, 2018
If Irving’s failure of leadership was the lead story to the Boston Celtics’ lost season, Tatum’s regression from his remarkable rookie season was a close second. His efficiency took a step back as his volume increased, leaving some observers wondering if he’s really more of a complimentary player than the budding superstar he once seemed.
Let’s remember that Tatum’s most frequently cited NBA comparables are Carmelo Anthony, Paul Pierce, Rudy Gay, Jabari Parker and Harrison Barnes. All but Pierce are best known as score-first players with limited skills as facilitators and defenders. And hey, championship teams need great scorers just as much as they need gifted playmakers, shutdown defenders and tough rebounders.
But to truly ascend to the pantheon of NBA superstars, you need to do more than get buckets. Another of Tatum’s comparables, Dirk Nowitzki, is a prime example of a great shooter elevating other facets of his game to become a perennial all-star. Fortunately there are reasons to believe Tatum likewise possesses the qualities necessary to elevate his own game and reach that elite level.
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First, Tatum is still just 21 years old and already has two years of NBA experience under his belt. By comparison, Pierce was already 21 when he made his NBA debut during the 1998-99 season. On the other hand, Melo and Parker, like Tatum, entered the league as teenagers and each showed significant improvement in their third season. Nowitzki became an all-star in his fourth season, but it was in his third that he arguably ascended to that level with his performance.
Further, the numbers indicate Tatum already showed growth last season as a passer and rebounder. His Per 100 Possession rates point to improvement as a facilitator (from 2.6 to 3.3 assists) and a more active rebounder (8.2 to 9.4 rebounds).
And while his defensive rating regressed from his rookie year, among players averaging at least 25 minutes per game, Tatum placed 27th overall, just behind Draymond Green and ahead of Al Horford. In his rookie season, Tatum placed 7th among some of the NBA’s best defenders.
Lastly, Tatum has frequently been lauded for his work ethic. No less an authority than Hall of Famer Grant Hill said this about Tatum during his one-and-done season at Duke:
"“He’s a grinder,” Hill said. “He’s a guy that you can tell from his skill set. If you’re that young, to be that polished already, footwork, the understanding of how to use his body, how to get off his shot, his total package, his bag of tricks. It’s at an elite level to be young. You don’t just naturally get that. That’s hours and hours of putting time in the gym.”"
Tatum isn’t yet the kind of player a team builds a championship contender around. But between his talent, drive and experience, he’s primed to make that leap sooner than later.
Gordon Hayward: X-Factor
By any measure, Gordon Hayward’s first full season as a Boston Celtic was, shall we say, underwhelming. Coming off his first all-star season with Utah, Hayward, along with Irving and Horford, was expected to be a key part of Boston’s next big three and lead the drive to hang banner #18.
Five minutes into his first game in green, however, everything changed. Hayward broke his leg and, in many ways, the Celtics franchise has been broken ever since. And now Hayward is the lone player standing, with Horford and Irving now Eastern Conference rivals instead of teammates.
Still, towards the end of last season, Hayward showed flashes of the player he used to be. Those flashes were too infrequent to save the team from themselves as they were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs by the Bucks. But with a full offseason of “no restrictions,” Hayward enters this year ready to prove himself all over again.
Let’s not forget, even though Hayward struggled in many facets of his game last season, there were signs that an elite level player still lurked beneath the struggles. While Hayward struggled to find his three point shooting stroke, his free throw shooting, rebounding and passing all remained roughly near his previously established levels.
While Paul George was younger when he suffered a similarly gruesome injury, Celtics fans can find hope in his recent MVP level performance that Hayward, too, will once again find his own all-star form. And along with Walker and Tatum, the Celtics may again find themselves with a new big three and a new path to an NBA championship.