If the Boston Red Sox are to remain contenders for 2020 and beyond, signing Mookie Betts should top their offseason to do list.
Steve Buckley hopes he’s wrong, but he thinks the Boston Red Sox should plan for the end of the Mookie Betts era.
Brendan Mizgala over at BoSox Injection thinks the same. Our own Sam Minton thinks Betts is as good as gone, while Jon Michael Walters is dreaming up ways the Chicago White Sox can trade for Betts.
Betts even told the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier that he doesn’t think his legacy will be impacted by the number of jerseys he wears.
"“It’s pretty cool that they have their career in one place, but you can be remembered in that same fashion even if you put on a couple different jerseys,” said Betts. “It definitely doesn’t hurt to only put on one jersey . . . [But the Yastrzemski celebration] doesn’t sway me [about the future] one way or the other.”"
So, Red Sox Nation, should we brace for Betts to follow other icons like Fred Lynn, Roger Clemens, Mo Vaughn and Jon Lester out the door? Or will he join Yaz, Jim Rice and (likely) Dustin Pedroia in singing “Boston, you’re my home” next year and beyond?
Ultimately, it’s Mookie Betts decision to make. But remember this: no matter what happens between now and the end of next season, the Boston Red Sox have no reason not to give Betts every penny he’s worth. And if they don’t, they have no one to blame but themselves if Betts is wearing a rival team’s uniforms come 2021.
Mookie Betts vs. The World
Mookie Betts is not Mike Trout. But that’s only because no one is. Trout is in a class by himself, so the fact that he’s also the highest paid player in baseball, at just over $35 million a year, makes perfect sense.
That said, if Trout sets the market, then Betts deserves to be a close second. Over the last five seasons (since Betts made his big league debut in 2015), Trout has racked up a major league leading 44.2 in fWAR. Betts trails comfortably behind in second place with 35.3 fWAR, just about a nine win difference.
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But the man in third place? That’s the Cubs’ Kris Bryant with 27.9 fWAR, followed closely by Christian Yelich (27.7), Josh Donaldson (27.5), Francisco Lindor (27.1) and Jose Altuve (27.0).
In other words, the gap between Trout and Betts and Betts and the rest of the best baseball players on the planet is huge.
When Betts turned down the Red Sox offer of a contract extension worth 8 years and $200 million before the 2018 season, he was coming off a down year and betting that his future performance would improve. Since then, Betts has done nothing less than produce at elite levels, earning an MVP and a World Series ring with 10.4 fWAR in 2018. By comparison, his 6.5 fWAR this season may seem disappointing, but it’s a mark bested by only seven other players and equal to Xander Bogaerts in what has been rightfully called his own breakout year.
So if Betts were seeking an average annual salary between Trout and Nolan Arenado‘s $32.5 million, who could blame him? Arenado, the current second highest paid position player, is eighth overall in fWAR since 2015 at 26.7.
As for term, Arenado and Manny Machado are both signed through their age 35 seasons. Paul Goldschmidt‘s contract lasts through his age 36 season, while Trout and Bryce Harper are signed through their 38th birthdays.
Betts will turn 27 just after the end of the regular season. He has one season of arbitration left before he’s eligible for free agency, when he’ll be 28 years old.
So if he signs through his 35th birthday at an average of, say, $34 million annually, Betts’ next contract would be 8 years and $272 million. At 10 years and $340 million, Betts would be locked up until just before he turns 38.
In a vacuum, those are eminently reasonable numbers for the 2nd best baseball player in the world. But, of course, contracts aren’t signed in a vacuum and the Red Sox have to pay a full roster of players, with a luxury tax to consider as well.
Boston Red Sox vs. The Luxury Tax
The Boston Red Sox paid over $240 million for this year’s third place finish, tops in all of baseball. Tack on their luxury tax bill and it’s over $250 million. That’s before Chris Sale‘s extension kicks in, which will double his salary from $15 million this season to $30 million for the next three seasons (and over $20 million for the three following that).
Entering next season, the Red Sox will have Sale, David Price, Bogaerts and, likely, Betts and J.D. Martinez (if he doesn’t opt out) making $20 million plus. Toss in Nathan Eovaldi‘s $17 million and the Red Sox will probably be on the hook for over $120 million for just six players.
But, that’s also pretty much it. If Rick Porcello does resign, it will be for far less than the $20 million he “earned” this past season. Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce, Brock Holt, Erasmo Ramirez and Chris Owings represent an additional $18 million likely to come off the books. Pablo Sandoval‘s retained salary drops from $19 million in 2019 to just $5 million in 2020. Andrew Cashner and Sandy Leon are also likely to depart.
Rusney Castillo ($13.5 million), Pedroia ($13 million) and Christian Vazquez ($4.2 million) are the only other Boston Red Sox players with guaranteed contracts entering 2020, and Castillo’s doesn’t count against the luxury tax threshold. They’re currently projected for a payroll around $150 million, with Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman all eligible for arbitration.
Point is, while it won’t be easy to limbo under the tax threshold (expected to be around $208 million), it is possible, even if the Red Sox sign Betts long term.
First, just because his average annual salary might be $34 million a year, that doesn’t mean Boston will be paying him that exact figure in 2020 or 2021. The Red Sox might choose to structure the deal so that it ramps up in value slowly to help mitigate luxury tax concerns. This is the last year Sandoval’s salary will count against the tax, while Pedroia’s deal mostly comes off the book after 2021. So maybe Betts’ extension starts at $25 million for 2020 before jumping to $30 million for 2021 and $35 million a year after that.
Second, there are other ways the Boston Red Sox can create wiggle room to sign Betts and stay below the tax threshold. Primarily, they would need to trade Bradley, who made $8.5 million this year and was already the subject of trade rumors in the past. Barnes, Workman and Hembree could all be moved as well, which would thin out the bullpen. But with ERod likely to receive a significant bump as he approaches 20 wins, tough decisions will need to be made. And the emergence of pre-arbitration relievers Marcus Walden, Darwinzon Hernandez, Colton Brewer and Josh Taylor would mitigate their loss.
Indeed, most importantly, the team does have several pre-arbitration players ready to play important roles next season. Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis will be fixtures in next season’s lineup, while Walden, Hernandez, Brewer and Taylor should all be on the roster.
Travis Lakins and Marco Hernandez are showing signs they could join them. And top Red Sox prospects Bobby Dalbec, CJ Chatham and Tanner Houck are on track to debut at some point next season, with Jarren Duran, Bryan Mata and Durbin Feltman not far behind.
So if Mookie Betts is wearing a different jersey than that of the Boston Red Sox over the next several seasons, there will be no shortage of excuses for why. Just know that most of them ring hollow and the Red Sox should blame no one for his departure other than themselves.