Examining how the Boston Red Sox starting rotation will look without David Price pending his deal to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Mookie Betts, David Price trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers isn’t official yet, but presuming the two sides iron things out, the Boston Red Sox rotation will be missing a key member in 2020. Here are some predictions and analysis for the starting pitchers for the upcoming season.
During the two seasons that he was relatively injury-free, lefty hurler David Price was an invaluable member of the starting rotation. In 2016, he went 17-9, had 228 strikeouts, and led the league with 239 innings pitched.
In 2018, he went 16-7, produced a respectable 3.58 ERA, and oh yeah…won two games and boasted a sub-two ERA in the Fall Classic. Regardless of how one feels about Price’s off-field controversies, it’s hard to deny that when healthy, he’s a solid number two starter. His imminent departure now thins out an already shaky starting rotation.
Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez will now anchor the top part of the rotation, but after ERod there are serious questions marks with less than a week before Spring Training begins.
After his trade to the Boston Red Sox from the Tampa Rays in 2018, the flame-throwing Eovaldi quickly established himself as a fan favorite because of his gritty performances and electric fastball.
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Eovaldi beat the Yankees in his second start with the Sox, going eight strong and giving up only three hits. He had a 1.61 ERA in the 2018 post-season, and despite losing the game, his bullpen-saving performance in Game Three of the World Series probably helped the team win in the long run.
Last season was a different story. Injured for most of the season, Nathan Eovaldi started a mere twelve games and went 2-1 with a 5.99 ERA, giving up 16 homers in only 67 innings pitched. With Price and Rick Porcello gone, Eovaldi slides into the number three spot in the rotation. Or does he scuffle into the third spot in the rotation? Baseball-Reference predicts the following numbers for Eovaldi in 2020:
4-4 (W-L), 4.79 ERA, 94 Innings pitched, and a 1.340 WHIP.
Eovaldi has never thrown 200 innings in his big league career, but he’s being paid as a starter (17M a year) and needs to stay on the mound and give the Sox at least 150 IP from the bump. If Nathan Eovaldi can avoid his yearly IL stint, the Sox rotation will benefit from the stability.
On December 18, the Boston Red Sox signed former Minnesota Twins lefty Martin Perez to a one year deal to plug the hole left by departing free agent Rick Porcello.
Perez’s last season with a sub-four ERA was 2013 with the Texas Rangers. Last season, he gave up 23 long balls in 165 IP, and only pitched into the seventh inning five times in 29 starts. Baseball-Reference predicts that Perez with throw 20 fewer innings in 2020, compile a 5.00 ERA, and sport a (gulp) 1.521 WHIP.
Look…I know your back of the rotation guys aren’t expected to have Pedro or Clemens-like numbers, but these stats would scare me if Martin Perez was the number five starter.
If Chris Sale continues his annual August R&R stint, or if Eovaldi’s arm explodes into a thousand fiery pieces, Martin Perez could possibly become your NUMBER TWO STARTER. Let that sink in.
The holdup in the Betts/Price trade revolved around the medical records of hefty hurler Brusdar Graterol.
The three-team trade landed the Red Sox the Twins’ righty, who the Sox hoped could develop into a back to middle of the rotation starter. Nicknamed “The Buffalo”, the 6’1”, 265 LB Graterol has a 99 MPH fastball, and a 50 value slider (that’s pretty good). With the Twins, Graterol was reportedly working on a changeup to round out his arsenal of pitches to transition into a starting role.
But he’s already missed an entire season (2016) in his brief pro career due to injury. The Red Sox are insinuating that Graterol’s records project him to be more of a relief pitcher. Even though the Sox don’t have a traditional closer at the moment, Graterol being a starter represents a semblance of fair value return, considering Price is gone. If he’s projected to be more of a set-up guy, then the Sox need to ask for more marbles.
There is a chance that Chaim Bloom, the mastermind of the “Opener” in baseball, will elect to implement this philosophy again this year (with Nathan Eovaldi, and later David Price shelved with injuries in 2019, the Sox used openers pretty much all season). If the prospect of seeing Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson start a game and leave after giving up four earned in 3.2 IP floats your boat, you may be in luck this year!
Ponder this: The Boston Red Sox, one of the wealthiest, most successful franchises in all of sports, does not have a manager, closer, or fifth starter coming into the 2020 season.
If even ONE of the current rotation pieces goes down for an extended period of time, this could end up being the most painful Sox campaign since 2012.