Will the Boston Red Sox trade of Mookie Betts be a windfall for Boston?
The 2020 Boston Red Sox season is in flux as Major League Baseball will shorten the season if they play at all as the current pandemic has mandated that MLB take all necessary precautions, as they should, to protect their players and personnel from the coronavirus.
Trades that have been finalized are done. One of them was the blockbuster trade sending one of the top five players in MLB to the Los Angeles Dodgers from the Red Sox, Mookie Betts. In return, Boston received three solid minor league players in the transaction.
Betts will be a free agent after the 2020 season.
Now, since current times have disrupted the major league season and cost at a very minimum 1/3 of this season’s games, speculation has been raised about the possibility of Betts never playing a game for Los Angeles before becoming a free agent. It is possible.
So, as an observer who felt that the trade was unfortunate but necessary in light of Betts’ determination to enter free agency, no matter what, the trade may wind up a windfall for Boston. This is despite criticism of the trade by many in the city. They may all have been shortsighted.
I had always thought that the most logical place for Betts to be traded to was the Dodgers.
A few reasons.
First, Betts would be in the National League, not an immediate threat to Boston;
Second, the Dodgers had a surplus of talent in their farm system to satisfy Boston’s desire to replenish their depleted farm system. That was a must;
Third, LA had the cash and probably the motivation to sign Betts to the lucrative long-term contract he wants after entering free agency after the 2020 MLB season; and,
Fourth, LA was a pretty nice place to live, after all, was it not? Why not re-sign there if the money is there.
So, the logical place to trade Betts, in my mind at least, was the LA Dodgers. No question about that at all.
Boston Red Sox Betts trade: what happens in 2020?
So, Boston Red Sox brand new head of baseball operations Chaim Bloom rolled the dice in a very well-thought move when he traded Mookie Betts, Boston superstar to the LA Dodgers. Betts had made it clear, after reportedly rejecting Boston’s attempts to extend his contract, that he would enter free agency after the 2020 season.
I applaud Chaim Bloom for his perspicacity and foresight. It was clear to many observers that Betts was headed to free agency, no matter what Boston offered unless it was the $400M contract it was reported he wanted. That was a non-starter.
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Bloom was in a precarious portion. He was faced with the loss of the team’s best player and the securing of only a low-value first-round draft pick (or maybe less?) in return. In addition, he was a newly hired Boston de facto “General Manager” and entered the fray with this momentous decision awaiting him.
Bloom ignored these risks and pulled the string on the deal. He ultimately received three players in return. They were Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong and Jeter Downs.
Verdugo is a promising right fielder who had had some major league experience but who had an injury situation to deal with. He has real potential and is probably slated to start in right field.
Connor Wong is a catcher. He didn’t excite Sox fandom very much but there’s a method to Chaim Bloom’s getting him. The Sox minor league system is woefully thin at catcher (among others, like pitching). Wong gives them a legitimate minor league option. He hit 24 home runs between single and double-A last season so he has some pop in his bat to boot.
In addition, they got a young player who may turn out to be the hit of the trade long-term. That’s Jeter Downs. I really like Downs coming back to Boston in the deal. Between A and AA ball, Downs hit .276 along with 24 homers and 24 stolen bases while playing shortstop. Not bad at all.
I see Jeter Downs as the Sox second baseman of the future after a position change. Xander Bogarts, an emerging superstar himself, is locked in at short, deservedly so, but the Sox again are very thin at second.
The Red Sox have been compelled to use converted third baseman there recently since the Pedroia injury and Downs could very well be the long-term solution there. Meanwhile, the Sox signed infielder Jose Peraza and they also have Michael Chavis to compete for the starting job in 2020.
Jeter Downs will start at Portland and will be waiting in the wings. I like the acquisition. A lot.
Post-trade outlook for the Boston Red Sox.
Boston’s head of baseball operations Chaim Bloom took a bold step in trading one of the best players in baseball this offseason. All eyes were on him and the Boston Red Sox prior to the 2020 season. Now, 1/3 of the season has already been lost to the pandemic situation.
Whether or not baseball resumes this season and in what form is a good question. Whatever the eventuality, clearly Mookie Betts will only have a relatively limited time in Dodger blue after the trade from Boston before becoming a free agent, his long-time goal.
LA therefore will not have had a full or even close to a full season with Mookie Betts before he likely will test the free-agent waters. Conversely, the trade is done and Boston will have the three young players either on their team or in their minor league system when the season begins if it does.
With additional cash coming off the Red Sox books for 2021, it would be an interesting final outcome if Boston went back in for Betts after this season and signed him to a long-term deal. It’s possible, but I think it’s also a fantasy.
Boston has reset its financial situation and after the 2020 season will be freed up of a bit more cash in free agency next offseason. According to baseball-reference.com, Red Sox free agents in 2021 include Jackie Bradley, Jr., and his $11M salary and Kevin Pillar at $4.25M.
A Providence Journal article noted,
"Assuming Martinez stays, the Red Sox would have about $34 million available under the first threshold of the CBT — that figures to remain at $208 million."
This assumed that J.D. Martinez does not opt-out of his deal after 2020. So the Sox would have some money to spend before invoking the luxury tax in 2021.
So the deal is done, but the final outcome is yet to be seen. Should the season resume, Betts will have his opportunity to shine for LA. He will either acclimate himself to the golden southern California sun or test the free-agent waters for the maximum in green. Or maybe both. We’ll see.
Meanwhile, Boston has three solid young players in positions of need. Whatever eventuates. Chaim Bloom made a solid deal and potentially gained three useful players in a swap for one year of Mookie Betts.
All-in-all it’s a good return for Boston and should the Red Sox go back in for Betts and land him in free agency, it will be grand slam homerun.