The New England Patriots have 3 keys to continued defensive success in the 2020 NFL season.
Observers are speculating that the 2020 New England Patriots will depend upon their defense to deliver success for the team in 2020. Based on their lack of aggressive bolstering of their offense in the 2020 offseason, that seems to be spot on target.
Having lost Tom Brady and done little else to shore up a lackluster offensive side of the ball in the offseason, the Patriots will have to excel on defense to defend their AFC East Division crown. We can look to three key defensive elements that could contribute to that success in 2020.
The Patriots’ defense in 2019 was a very good one. In fact, it Pro Football Reference had it rated as the No. 1 rated team defense in the National Football League overall. And the defense only surrendered 20 touchdowns total in 2019. That’s really good.
Their passing defense was rated No. 2 and their rushing defense No. 6. These were great statistics. So why did the New England Patriots have an unusually abbreviated season in 2019?
That’s a tough question to answer. But here’s a try, the Patriots faltered last season because of two major reasons. First, their offense did not deliver in key situations to extend drives or get touchdowns instead of settling for a field goal attempt. Those were costly.
The other reason is that the Patriots’ defense didn’t show up against the better teams to make a difference. The defense thrived on poor teams, as they should. But, when “the rubber met the road”, so to speak, they wilted.
That same defense will be well-motivated to prove themselves this season, especially without the safety valve available to them in No. 12. Perhaps they relied on that a bit too much in 2019.
In 2020, there’ll likely be no one back there at quarterback (unless maybe a certain Cam Newton is ultimately signed) who will have the talent, poise, and experience to bail them out of a bad game effort. That’s yet to be seen.
Meanwhile, here are 3 keys for that defense to hopefully give that offense what it needs to win games.
First, the New England Patriots defensive backfield must remain superb.
The New England Patriots’ defensive backfield is one of, if not the best in the National Football League. It is loaded with talent and depth. That talent begins with the best cornerback in the NFL, Stephon Gilmore.
I’ve written about Gilmore recently, I called him the “Best of the Best” and there is likely to be little argument on that evaluation. Gilmore has emerged as the best cover man in the NFL.
When you have that type of player manning one side of the defense, you’re a good part of the way to being successful against the pass.
In addition, on the other side of the defense, New England has two excellent cornerbacks to man the outside in J.C. Jackson and emerging star, and the dependable Jason McCourty. This side also has the capability to excel. In addition, the Patriots have depth at the corner position.
Jonathan Jones is a blazingly fast and versatile corner who can also play some safety. In addition, the Patriots invested big-time in the 2018 draft on second-round pick JoeJuan Williams.
Williams contributed little in his rookie season so 2020 is his time to show what he can do. He may also be called upon to play some safety and has the size to do so. That’s a plus.
If Williams fails to deliver, he will be another in the long line of second-round defensive back flops that have “graced” the Bill Belichick era. Belichick says that the greatest improvement should be between the rookie and second-year for a player. So Williams will be on the spot to deliver.
At safety, the Patriots are also in a good spot. Devin McCourty, MR. PATRIOT (and surefire Patriots Hall-of-Famer when he hangs up his cleats) mans the free safety position with aplomb.
Dependable Patrick Chung is the strong safety and when healthy he is still a force to be reckoned with. Depth here may be a bit of a question mark with the trade of playmaker Duron Harmon.
The New England Patriots used another of those dastardly second-round picks on Kyle Dugger, an athletic strong safety with good speed who will hopefully step in as a depth player immediately.
In addition, the Patriots signed two additional depth-type safeties in Adrien Phillips and Cody Davis, essentially for special teams.
The Patriots defensive backfield looks solid again for 2020 and will have to be if New England is to make a playoff run. This is a plus rating.
Second, the New England Patriots will have to stop the run.
The New England Patriots were very good against the run statistically in 2019. But key pieces of that defense have departed the team. Danny Shelton, the “great wall” at nose tackle is now in Detroit.
Kyle Van Noy, their most versatile linebacker is in Miami. And, Jamie Collins, their most athletic linebacker is also now in Detroit. Those are big losses to make up.
How did the Patriots deal with replacing those key components of a statistically dominant defense in the offseason? Did the Patriots do enough?
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Well, that is a difficult question to answer, and most of the possible answers are guesses. Frankly, it’s not clear at this point if they have. It looks rather doubtful.
They did sign linebacker Brandon Copeland as a free agent from their rival Jets. Copeland will be 29 in July. He’s not a young player. Last season in 12 games he had 42 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Those stats don’t seem to be a like-for-like replacement for Van Noy or Collins.
The Patriots also drafted two linebackers high in the draft in 2020. Josh Uche who is a solid pass-rush specialist and a more well-rounded linebacker, Anfernee Jennings. Can Jennings make up for the production of seasoned veterans like Van Noy and Collins? I’d say that’s doubtful.
So with that deficiency probable, what about the run-stopping of Danny Shelton who’s now in Detroit. Shelton had a really good year in 2019. I’ve written he was very underrated. New England probably made a mistake letting him go in free agency.
They signed a replacement of sorts in Beau Allen. But Allen is no Danny Shelton, at least not the Shelton of 2019. This looks like trouble in run defense to me. Shelton had a Vince Wilfork-like season last year. He will not be easy to replace and the draft added nothing in that area.
The New England Patriots defense went 8-0 against a basically powderpuff schedule in the first half of 2019. But in the tough part of the schedule, they came back to earth and went 12-4. That 4 instead of 3 cost them dearly. A bye and a likely home playoff game in the Divisional round.
So, the Patriots’ run-stopping defense is in question in 2010. The 2019 version was a statistical monster. But stats can often be deceiving. They clearly dominated poor teams. But they wilted when facing the NFL iron. How they do in 2020 will be very important.
Third, the New England Patriots should employ the amoeba defense, all the time.
“Ameba” is defined by Dictionary.com as,
"any of numerous freshwater, marine, or parasitic one-celled protozoa of the order Amoebida, characterized by a granular nucleus surrounded by a jellylike mass of cytoplasm that forms temporary extensions, or pseudopodia, by which the organism moves, engulfs food particles, and forms food vacuoles."
Not sure that helps any. But, I think it means, a very small creature that moves around and can change its shape to meet its needs. Does it relate to the Patriots’ defense? Well, it actually does.
The Patriots used this defense to confuse Kirk Cousins in a victory over the Vikings in 2018. Not sure I knew what they called it, but there it is. So why is it so important?
Well, that Vikings game was not the first time New England has used this defense. They used it other times in the past under Bill Belichick. It’s been so successful I have always been nonplussed that they didn’t use it every down. Why didn’t they?
Musket Fire
What this defense does is present basically nothing to an offensive coordinator or quarterback. It just shows up. Usually, there is one or maybe even no down defensive lineman. And, they are all moving around like they are trying to decide what to do. But THEY know. And YOU, don’t.
That’s the point. By not being in a set formation, you don’t have a clue about who’s rushing, who’s dropping out, about who’s doing anything. Thus, they make it hard for you to comprehend what the heck they might do. And it works.
They employed it years ago under Belichick and it worked. But, then, they’d go to a fixed defense that allows the quarterback to check out the situation and make the call to beat you. It makes no sense NOT to use the Amoeba, all the time.
Defenses win in a few ways. First, they out-talent you. That’s always a great advantage, but, you don’t always have it.
Second, they out physical you. That’s a tough one to overcome too, but let’s hope that the Patriots strength and conditioning staff gets them fit enough and strong enough to stay with any opponent (run that hill, guys!) And,
Third, they can outsmart you. That’s where the amoeba comes into the equation. When you run an amoeba defense, you control the smart aspect. You dictate what happens. and you determine the outcome on defense. And that is, you win.
It works. When they have no idea what you are going to do, and you do, you have the advantage. But that’s not easy to do. You have to be smart. You have to be schooled. And you have to be ready.
The New England Patriots have done it before. Create a “D” that can do it again. It’s virtually indefensible, if … you can get your team to implement correctly.
So those are my three prescriptions for the Patriots’ defense in 2020. With the departure of No. 12, they will have to equal, and actually exceed what they did in their terrific 2019 season. Can they do it? As they say, that’s why they play the games.