The Boston Celtics bleak situation somehow managed to get worse yesterday afternoon when it was announced that star forward Jaylen Brown would miss the rest of the season with a wrist injury.
Sitting in the seventh seed of the Eastern Conference, and staring down a potential play-in tournament game, the Celtics postseason aspirations appear to have evaporated into thin air.
While things don’t necessarily look great for the Celtics right now, the season is not over, and as we saw firsthand last season with the Miami Heat, any team can get hot and go on a crazy postseason run.
Boston hasn’t shown it much this season, but this team is loaded with talent that has the potential to make some noise in the postseason, even with Brown now out of the picture. With that in mind, here are three players who need to step up down the stretch here if the Celtics plan on making a late postseason push.
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No. 3: Boston Celtics wings Romeo Langford/Aaron Nesmith
Boston has a plethora of young wing players who will probably see an increase in opportunities now that Brown is out. Among Semi Ojeleye, Grant Williams, Romeo Langford, and Aaron Nesmith, one or two of these guys are going to have to step into the rotation and chip in 20-25 solid minutes a night now.
At this point, we already know what Ojeleye and Williams have to offer. They are strong defenders, but offensive liabilities. Ideally they would be utilized as “three and d” type players, but they both just don’t shoot the ball well enough to earn more minutes in the rotation.
Their main sources of offense are three point shots, but Williams shoots 36 percent and Ojeleye shoots 38 percent, which just isn’t good enough considering their volume of shots, and that they are basically just catch and shoot players at this point. There will be nights where the matchups play out in a way that results in either of these guys being called upon, but at this point, Williams and Ojeleye should only be used when they are needed on defense.
Langford is really a wild card at this point, as he has shown to be a very sound defender, but rarely translates that success to offense, where he is shooting a woeful 31 percent from the field. Combine that with his lengthy injury history, you see why Langford has struggled to crack the rotation up to this point.
Despite that, the upside with Langford is clearly much higher than that of Williams and Ojeleye. Langford has shown a knack at being able to get to the rim, in a way that other players on the roster struggle to do. And while he’s certainly not an effective three point shooter (27 percent on the season), he has the potential to be a real weapon if he can find his footing offensively.
The most likely player to step into this role is Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith has been a revelation as of late, as he’s scored at least 15 points in four of Boston’s last six games. For much of the season, Nesmith had struggled to find his shot, which was the reason Boston selected him with the 14th pick in last year’s draft. But Nesmith has grown much more comfortable in the offense as the season has progressed, and he seems likely to be one of the first guys called off the bench for Brad Stevens as the season wraps up.
Nesmith was a deadeye in college, and while he’s shooting 39 percent from three this season, he has shown that he can get to the rim as well, and has started to drive with more authority in recent contests. Nesmith is an active defender, as he plays with a recklessness that no one else on this team can offer. Expect Nesmith to get a big chunk of minutes off of the bench, but it would be great to see a guy like Langford step up and help out as well.
No. 2: Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart
One of the more overlooked aspects of the Celtics run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season was the play of Marcus Smart.
With Gordon Hayward out for most of the playoffs, and Kemba Walker struggling with a knee injury, Smart was arguably the Celtics third best scoring option behind Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
After struggling in the opening series against the Philadelphia 76ers, a switch flipped in Smart, and he played some of the best basketball of his career. He averaged 15.7 points per game in the series against the Toronto Raptors, and then upped the ante against the Heat, scoring 17 a game. He also was a huge help on the glass, and averaged 5 assists per game in both series as one of the offenses primary playmakers.
It seemed like Smart had finally turned the corner and was becoming a more consistent threat offensively, but he has regressed back to his old ways this season. While he is averaging career highs in points and assists per game, it’s been the same old Marcus Smart for the most part. He shows flashes of his scoring potential, but then follows it up by missing shots in bunches, which is what he finally had gotten away from during last season’s playoffs.
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Smart has always been an iffy three point shooter at best, and his efficiency from behind the arc has decreased for the second season in a row, sitting at 33 percent. For what it’s worth, Smart shot 39% on three pointers in their series against Toronto last postseason. The closer to the hoop Smart is, the better a player he is, but he seems intent on firing up a bevy of three pointers night in and night out, regardless of whether or not they are falling.
Smart’s erratic offensive play in nothing new, but his struggles on defense are. Smart’s calling card throughout his whole career has been his defensive tenacity, but Smart seems to be a step slower this season. Part of it could be he hasn’t fully recovered from his calf injury he suffered early on in the season, but Smart hasn’t been on the same level defensively that he had been for his entire career.
While the eye test can certainly spot Smart’s declining defensive play, the numbers back it up. Defensive Win Shares, which is a statistic that estimates how many wins a player contributes through his defensive play, sits at 1.4 for Smart this season. For reference, Smart’s second lowest DWS total was 2.2 in his rookie season, so clearly his defensive play hasn’t been up to the level that has become expected of him.
With Brown now out, a large burden has quickly fallen on Smart’s shoulders on both sides of the ball.
Brown was arguably the Celtics second best defender behind Smart, meaning Smart will basically draw the toughest defensive matchup for the rest of the way out. And more shots will now be available each night, and you know Smart will take them. We saw Smart step up last season when the playoffs rolled around, and the Celtics will need him to answer the bell for the second straight season if they want to make it anywhere in the playoffs this season.
No. 1: Boston Celtics veteran point guard Kemba Walker
If there was ever a time for Kemba Walker to wake up from his season long slump, now is the time. This has easily been Walker’s worst season since his early days in Charlotte, and it’s fair to say it’s been a large reason for Boston’s struggles. Walker just hasn’t been the same player this season, and it’s cost the Celtics mightily.
Ever since he suffered a knee injury last season, Walker has looked like a different player. He has lost some of his bounce that made his drives to the basket so effective, as he often just gets swarmed at the hoop by the opposing defenders nowadays. His three point shooting has also regressed, as he’s hitting 36 percent of his threes compared to 38 percent last season.
It’s been tough to watch Kemba for large parts of the season. Scoring was his strong suit, and he’s struggled for most of the season to consistently find the bottom of the bucket. Just as he seems to be finding his way, dropping a 30 point game, he will turn around and do next to nothing the game after.
Take Sunday’s game against the Miami Heat for example. Walker was coming off back-to-back 30+ point games, and seemed to finally be finding his stride. But he then failed to impose himself against the Heat at all, and ended up playing second fiddle to Evan Fournier and Jayson Tatum. With more shots available, it’s time for Kemba to get more involved on a nightly basis, and then follow that up by hitting his shots.
Making matters worse, Kemba is just not a good defender, which means when he isn’t hitting his shots on offense, he’s basically contributing nothing to the team. In same game against Miami, they made it a goal of theirs to seek out Walker on each offensive possession they had, and would attack him over and over again.
Miami continually forced him to switch onto Bam Adebayo, which typically ended up in points for the Heat.
It’s undeniably clear that if this team has any shot of getting out of the play-in tournament, let alone make the playoffs, Kemba Walker needs to be better. He will have more opportunities to score now that Brown is out, meaning he can work his way into the game in a way that he hasn’t had the opportunity to do for most of the season.
If the old Kemba Walker shows up, Boston still has a chance to do some damage in the postseason. Otherwise, get ready for a long offseason.