The New England Patriots opening contest of the 2021 NFL season is just a few days away now. The team will begin making their final preparations for their Week 1 bout with the Miami Dolphins, with kickoff set for 4:25 PM on September 12th.
There is a lot to unpack heading into the matchup, which features two up-and-coming AFC East teams that are hoping to contend for a playoff spot this season. Both teams find themselves with new quarterbacks under center, while also boasting standout defensive units. It will be a hard fought battle, and it should result in some entertaining football.
As a result, there’s a lot of things to keep an eye on in this one. Everyone is drooling over the Mac Jones/Tua Tagovailoa matchup, especially considering the pair were teammates during their college days at Alabama. Both teams are facing heightened expectations after strong offseasons, and it will be interesting to see which moves have immediate payoffs in this one.
It’s safe to say Gillette Stadium will be rocking for this one, as it will be the first regular season game with fans allowed in Foxboro in a year and a half. Excitement is through the roof to see whether this team can put last season’s disappointments behind them, and starting things off with a win would be sweet. Here are three things to watch for in the New England Patriots Week 1 contest against the Miami Dolphins.
New England Patriots thing to watch No. 3: How will the running game perform
The Patriots running backs certainly caught everyone’s eye during the preseason. They seemingly have four capable backs in Damien Harris, James White, J.J. Taylor, and Rhamondre Stevenson. Facing a stiff Dolphins defense that ranked as the sixth best unit last season, the running backs will have to establish themselves early and often in this one if they want to come out with a win.
Much of the workload is expected to fall on the shoulders of Harris, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get 20+ touches in this one. Harris won the top spot on the running back depth chart this preseason when Sony Michel was traded to the Los Angeles Rams, and this will be his first shot to prove that the front office made the right decision.
Harris graded out as one of the best running backs in the game last season despite limited action, and chances are he will be in line for a big day against Miami on Sunday. The Dolphins strength on defense is their secondary and pass rush, but their run defense was a bit of a sore spot last season. They were right at the middle of the pack last season, ranking 16th in the league while allowing 116.4 yards per game.
Raekwon Davis was the top piece of Miami’s run defense last season, but there wasn’t much help behind him. The Dolphins worked on shoring up their interior defensive line this offseason, bringing in old friend Adam Butler and John Jenkins to help clog up some of the gaps up front. The problem is that neither are capable of dynamically changing their run defense.
The Patriots boast one of the better offensive lines in the league, and they should be able to create some space for Harris and the running backs to work on Sunday. Considering how strong Miami’s secondary is, it’s vital they establish themselves early in order to take some of the pressure off Jones in his first career start. If Harris can put up a line of around 20 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown, New England will be in a good spot to win this one.
New England Patriots thing to watch No. 2: Can Pats defense contain Miami’s offense?
While many people will be curious how Jones does in his first start, the main battle will be on the other side of the ball in this one. The Patriots are rolling into the season with a new look defense, while the Dolphins worked on adding some weapons to their offense to help out Tagovailoa. It will be interesting to see which unit prevails in what should be a very entertaining matchup.
The Dolphins have a very under the radar offense that could prove challenging to defend for New England. Tagovailoa will be throwing most of his passes in this one to DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Jaylen Waddle. Myles Gaskin will get most of the reps at running back, while also serving as a weapon in the passing game for Tagovailoa as well.
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Parker has been known to give the Patriots fits in the past, as his height (6’3) has often caused problems. J.C. Jackson will probably be tasked with sticking with him for most of the game, as he’s one of the few guys who Parker can’t beat purely off his height. Waddle is a smaller, quicker receiver, and could see a lot of Jonathan Jones is he ends up being healthy for this one.
Another issue comes in the 6’6 frame of Gesicki. He has created problems for New England is the past as well, and they don’t really have anyone who can match his frame. Kyle Dugger will probably get the first crack at him, but don’t be surprised if third year corner Joejuan Williams is tasked with locking up Gesicki at times throughout this game.
The run defense will have an immediate challenge with Gaskin after they struggled for most of last season. Lawrence Guy and Davon Godchaux will be the first line of defense here, and it should be a battle in the trenches to establish dominance here.
One area where New England should have a clear advantage is their pass rush. The Dolphins will be without their starting left tackle Austin Jackson in this one, and you can bet head coach Bill Belichick will attack his replacement all day long. Don’t be surprised if Matthew Judon ends up with a multi-sack game in his first action with New England.
A lot of this depends on the play of Tagovailoa. He was wildly inconsistent last season, but New England’s defense has the power to make his day miserable. If they can do that, it will take a lot of pressure off the offense, which could be the difference between winning and losing.
New England Patriots thing to watch No. 1: Can the passing game deliver when called upon?
While the running game will be heavily relied upon in this one, it’s clear the passing game will have to deliver when they are called upon to do so in this one if they are going to win. There are going to be crucial third-and-five situations where it will be up to Mac Jones to survey the coverage in front of him and make the right throw, and this will be the most important factor in determining which team wins.
Jones was able to do this time and again in the preseason, but the regular season is a different animal. He was mainly doing these things against backups and players who are now free agents. The Dolphins secondary is one of the best in the league, and offer Jones a very difficult challenge right off the bat.
Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are one of the best cornerback duos in the league. Howard is coming off an All-Pro season in which he led the league in interceptions, while Jones remains his ever consistent partner-in-crime on the other side of the field. They will most likely each be tasked one side of the field, while Justin Coleman or Noah Igbinoghene will get the slot receiver.
It really remains to be seen how New England will line up their top receivers. The most logical seems to be Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers on the outside, with Kendrick Bourne lining up in the slot. They will probably switch all game long, but that seems the most likely base lineup.
Hitting receivers will admittedly be tough in this one, which is exactly why the Pats went out and brought in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry this offseason. Smith and Henry will be heavily relied upon to create separation in the middle of the field in this one, while also providing an outlet as a checkdown option every once in awhile. Also worth considering is James White and J.J. Taylor’s abilities as pass catchers too, and they could take advantage of Miami’s linebacker corps.
Old friends Eric Rowe and Jason McCourty will probably see a lot of Smith and Henry, while Jerome Baker and Elandon Roberts will keep their eyes on the running backs coming out of the backfield. While the Dolphins have the advantage at cornerback, New England should be able to find some room to operate in this area of their passing attack.
The Dolphins have a couple of solid pass rush options with Emmanuel Ogbah and Baker, but the Patriots o-line should be able to keep the pocket clean for Jones most of the day. Jones did hold onto the ball a bit too long a couple of times in the preseason finale against the New York Giants though, which is something to keep an eye on here.
Jones is in a great spot to succeed when called upon, although the Dolphins strong defense will make things a bit challenging for him here. This game could come down to a couple of crucial third down situations, and it will be up to Jones and the passing game to convert them. Whichever of Jones or Tagovailoa can do this more often will most likely lead their team to a win.