Reassessing the New England Patriots final six games of the season

The New England Patriots are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, if not the hottest in the entire league. After crawling out to a 2-4 start through their first six games, they have turned things around quite quickly, and are in the midst of a five game win streak. Now their record sits at 7-4, and in a wide open AFC conference, anything seems possible for this team over the remaining six games of the season.

While the Patriots have played a game or two more than every team in the NFL right now (a product of a Thursday night game this week and them not having their bye week yet), they are in a very good spot to at least make the playoffs this season. Whether it be a wild card spot or they end up winning the AFC East remains to be seen. What we do know is that this team controls their own destiny.

After feasting on some admittedly weaker opponents such as the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets, New England is now set to embark on their most difficult stretch of the season. It’s not a stretch to say this upcoming slate of games will not only determine the outcome of New England’s season, but it also will have a large impact on quite a few teams in the AFC as well. That was more than us Patriots fans could have asked for coming into the season.

That begs the question of just how much damage New England can do this season. Winning out seems unlikely, but with the way they have been playing recently, is it really out of the question? Let’s take a look at the Patriots remaining six games (five opponents) and analyze their chances of coming out on top in these contests.

New England Patriots Week 12 opponent: Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans season probably hasn’t gone as they would have expected, yet they somehow find themselves sitting a top the AFC anyways. With an 8-2 record through 10 games, and an upcoming matchup against the hapless Houston Texans, it seems likely the Titans will keep their stranglehold a top the AFC secure for atleast the upcoming week.

That may not be the case next week when the Titans come to Foxboro for a matchup against the Patriots. Despite their lofty record thus far, Tennessee has been barely stringing together wins this season, and are probably a couple of plays away from not even holding a Wild Card spot. Of the Titans eight wins this season, four have come by three points or less, so it’s not as if they are lighting the league up each and every week.

The Titans are also dealing with a plethora of injuries that could end up being their downfall. Star running back Derrick Henry is out for the foreseeable future, and he was recently joined on the injured reserve by star wideout Julio Jones. Defensively, three of Tennessee’s top linebackers (Rashaan Evans, Bud Dupree, and David Long Jr.) are all going to miss their upcoming matchup against the Texans.

Even with all the Titans injuries, this isn’t a team New England can take likely. The Titans head coach, former Patriots star linebacker Mike Vrabel, knows New England better than most head coaches, and you can bet he will come up with a way to beat the Patriots. Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown still are one of the deadliest passing tandems in the league, and they can rip off chunk plays at any given time.

But this surprisingly seems like a winnable game for New England. The Titans have the 24th ranked defense in the league, and that was before the rash of injuries they were dealt. Their offense is also severely hampered, and Brown will almost certainly be doubled throughout the contest. The game is still over a week away, but unless something changes drastically for Tennessee between now and then, it seems like the scales might be in New England’s favor.

Considering all that the Titans are dealing with, New England’s recent win streak, and the fact that this game is in Foxboro, I think this could end up becoming a very uncompetitive game for the Patriots. They are facing Tennessee at the perfect time, and I really can’t see their offense putting up a huge amount of points against this Patriots defense. Of course anything can happen, but you have to feel good about New England’s chances to win this game.

New England Patriots Week 13 & 16 opponent: Buffalo Bills

This is the main reason why the Patriots control their own destiny. They still have to play the Buffalo Bills twice in their final six games of the season. The Bills are 6-3 right now, so if they trip up and lose against the Indianapolis Colts this weekend, New England would all of a sudden find themselves a top the AFC East.

Of course, their best shots to knock off the Bills come in the form of their two matchups with them. The Bills were heavy favorites to take the AFC East this season after they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game last season, and while they will almost certainly be favorites heading into both of these games, they aren’t exactly invincible. They recently sufferred an unexpected loss at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars, so they are certainly beatable.

Even with that tough loss in the books, the Bills are easily the Patriots toughest challenge remaining on their schedule, and they have to play them twice. The Bills have a deadly offense, led by star quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and their defense is the only defense that is allowing less points per game than New England’s (Bills: 15 points per game, Pats: 16.1 points per game).

The key to beating the Bills this season seems to be whether or not you can pressure Allen. In each of Buffalo’s three losses, Allen has been sacked at least three times, and has been under pressure all game long. It makes sense that when a quarterback is under pressure, they don’t perform as well, and that’s been the case with Allen all season long. Allen also hasn’t been great against New England’s defense so far throughout his career (76.7 QB rating through five games).

The problem is that even if the Patriots defense can slow down Allen and the Bills offense, there’s a good chance the Bills defense can shut down Mac Jones and the Patriots offense. The Bills are second in the league in pass yards allowed per game (190.2) and third in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (83.9). So it may be a struggle to move the ball, which could end up hurting this team.

The most realistic outcome in my eyes is that these squads would split their two game set. It could just as easily go either way, with either team winning both games, but New England thrives in playing grind it out games that the Bills have lost to the Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers this season. Buffalo expects to blow opponents out of the water, but that isn’t going to happen against the Pats. I’d expect both teams to win their home contest in this mini-series.

New England Patriots Week 14 opponent: Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are the latest subject of HBO’s popular “Hard Knocks” series, and depending on how things work out, Patriots fans may get to see an inside look at how the Colts prepare for their Week 14 contest against New England. The Colts, much like the Patriots, have turned things around after a slow start. They opened the season 0-3, and now find themselves in the thick of the AFC Wild Card hunt with a 5-5 record.

The Colts could end up being a much tougher opponent than initially anticipated. Their offensive gameplan revolves primarily around star running back Jonathan Taylor, who will be the NFL’s leading rusher when Week 11 is in the books. They have a solid passing attack led by Philadelphia Eagles outcast Carson Wentz, and a solid wide receiver duo of Michael Pittman Jr. and T.Y. Hilton.

Taylor and a solid Colts offensive line could spell New England’s defense some trouble. Taylor has topped 100 yards of scrimmage in each of his last seven games, and he’s doing it on superb efficiency too. Of those seven games, he’s only had 20+ touches three times, which is almost unheard of in the NFL nowadays. If Taylor can get going, New England is probably in trouble.

However, the offense will probably have a favorable matchup against a weaker Indy defense. They rank 20th in the league so far, and while they have some star players like Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner that can wreak havoc on any play, it’s not a very deep unit. Their secondary isn’t very talented, and their linebacker corps falls off considerably after Leonard.

There will be matchups for Jones and the offense to exploit early and often in this one. The double tight end set involving Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith might actually be of use for once, and even if it’s not, the wide receivers should be able to find some space in the secondary. This may be a rare instance where the offense is relied upon to pull out a victory, and this game could end up being a very telling sign of where this team stands 14 games into the Mac Jones era.

Taylor’s performance is going to be the X factor in this one. If he can find room to run, it’s going to be a tough game for the Patriots to prevail in. If the Patriots defense can force Wentz to try to win Indy this game, that works in New England’s favor. This could end up being a trap game for the Pats, and they will need to do their best to avoid a loss in this one.

New England Patriots Week 17 opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars

After the grueling four game stretch that we just discussed, the New England Patriots will close out their season with a pair of games against some much less imposing opponents, the first of which comes against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It will be headlined as a battle of the rookie quarterbacks in the week leading up, with Mac Jones taking on the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence. But these are two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum.

We all know that Jones landed in a fairly decent situation compared to that of his former Clemson adversary in Lawrence. Lawrence inhabited a team that had won just 12 games over the past three seasons and had a new head coach in Urban Meyer, and the results haven’t exactly been great so far. Jacksonville is just 2-7, proving that they need a lot more help than adding Lawrence into the fold.

In fact, Lawrence has been one of the main issues for the Jags this season. He has just 1983 yards through nine games, while throwing eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. Granted he has virtually no offensive line or weapons to speak of, but he hasn’t lived up to his prestigious billing thus far. James Robinson, Marvin Jones Jr., and Laviska Shenault Jr. highlight Lawrence’s supporting cast.

Defensively, things aren’t much better for Jacksonville. Gone are they days when the defense was led by guys like Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, and Yannick Ngakoue. Josh Allen and Myles Jack lead the way now, but this team is basically running a second string secondary, and that usually means you are giving up a lot of points.

The Patriots are better than the Jaguars on both sides of the ball, will be playing at home, and will almost certainly have a playoff spot on the line. A lot would have to go wrong in order for New England to lose this game, but in fairness we just saw that happen to Buffalo. Even then, the New England Patriots are in a good position to coast to a nice Week 17 victory.

New England Patriots Week 18 opponent: Miami Dolphins

The New England Patriots first ever Week 18 contest will come against the same team they opened their season against, the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins beat the Patriots 17-16, with Damien Harris fumbling the ball inside the Dolphins 10 yard line with three minutes left to go. That feels like a long time ago now, doesn’t it?

Since then, these two teams have gone in completely different directions. The Dolphins have struggled to stay healthy across the board all season long, and they only recently got their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, back from injury. Either way, their season is most likely over considering they are already 3-7, although they did pull off a massive upset over the Baltimore Ravens last week.

The Dolphins usually get the best of the Pats once a season, and they already did that in Week 1. This game will be in Miami, and New England has a long list of woes playing in Florida, especially during the winter season, but that shouldn’t really matter in this one. The Patriots have improved drastically since Week 1, while the Dolphins are a virtually unrecognizable team.

On offense alone, Miami has nine players on injured reserve currently. Now, that’s not to say all those guys aren’t going to be active for the final game of the season, but it’s safe to assume a good portion of them will still be on the shelf. Among the key absences as DeVante Parker and Will Fuller V, two of Tagovailoa’s top wideouts.

Miami’s calling card has been their secondary, led by Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, and while they did a good job slowing down Mac Jones in their prior matchup, things probably won’t follow a same route this time around. The Dolphins are right around the middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed per game, and you can bet New England is going to formulate a gameplan that revolves around their ground game considering they picked up 125 yards in their first meeting.

This game will likely only be competitive if the Dolphins get some of their key players like Parker and Fuller back in time for it, which isn’t exactly a given right now. Even then, New England’s offense has improved enough, while Miami’s has regressed enough, that there should be a pretty decent margin for error here. If the New England Patriots can pick up four or five wins over their final six games, they will be in very good shape heading into the playoffs.