Thanks to an absolutely dominant win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and a Miami Dolphins loss to the Tennessee Titans, the New England Patriots have clinched a spot in the NFL playoffs. It’s nice to be back.
In all likelihood, the Patriots will be on the road in the wild card round to kick things off. Unless the New York Jets pull off some magic against the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots will not be able to leap over the Bills to win the AFC East next weekend. And while the AFC playoff picture is not set in stone yet, we now have a realistic idea of what will happen in Week 18.
The Titans are now the number one seed in the AFC thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs losing to the Cincinnati Bengals. All three teams have clinched their respective divisions, and the Titans play the Houston Texans in the final week of the regular season. If they take care of business as they should, they will get a week off thanks to the first round bye that comes with the top seed of each conference.
That leaves the Chiefs and Bengals locked to play a home game in two weeks, with the Bills likely to join them barring an upset. Odds are, the Patriots will be traveling to either Kansas City, Cincinnati, or Buffalo. All three are tough teams, and there are pros and cons to facing each of them. Which of them do the Patriots matchup the best with?
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs
They may no longer be the top team in the AFC, but the Kansas City Chiefs are as dangerous as ever. It hasn’t been a cake walk for Kansas City, as they were 3-4 through the first seven weeks. However, they turned it around and won eight straight prior to their loss to the Bengals yesterday afternoon.
Since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback for the Chiefs, they have played four games against the Patriots and are 2-2 in those games. However, the Patriots had Tom Brady for three of those games, and the one game where they didn’t happened last year which resulted in a 26-10 win for Kansas City.
The Patriots don’t necessarily have some magic formula to stop Kansas City’s offense, but Bill Belichick has found a way to at least slow Mahomes down at times during these matchups. With that said, Mac Jones and Josh McDaniels will still need to find a way to score points.
Kansas City’s pass defense ranks towards the bottom of the league, which would give the Patriots an opportunity to open up the playbook offensively. Still, the Patriots would need to make some plays on defense, as matching blows with Mahomes is not an easy task.
Could the New England Patriots stop Patrick Mahomes?
With no Jonathan Jones in the secondary for New England, Tyreek Hill would be a very tough cover. The Patriots would need to play zone more often than not, as they have no one else who can go step for step with Hill in man coverage. That would leave Travis Kelce to find the soft spots in said zone coverage, which he does better than any pass catcher in the NFL.
Not to mention the revamped Chiefs offensive line, which is anchored by stud rookie center Creed Humphrey and former Patriot Joe Thuney at guard. Watching them face Christian Barmore, who is causing pressure at a higher rate than any other rookie defensive tackle, would be intriguing.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
Things have changed quite a bit since the Patriots and Bengals last faced each other, which was in 2019. At that time, the Bengals were one of the worst teams in the NFL, while the Patriots were in the last year of the Tom Brady era. resulting in a game that the Patriots won handily.
Now, both teams have new franchise quarterbacks. Joe Burrow is on a tear for the Bengals, throwing nukes to his former college teammate Ja’Marr Chase as if they’re still at LSU.
J.C. Jackson has covered some great receivers this season, but Chase would be his toughest task yet. That’s extremely high praise for a rookie receiver, but Chase has broken multiple rookie receiving records this year. He’s just that good, plain and simple.
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On the other side, Tee Higgins is no slouch and would likely draw Jalen Mills, who has had a solid year in his own right. Chase and Higgins are one of the best duos in the NFL, and they’ve produced as such.
The Bengals are a bit weak on the offensive line, and the Patriots would need to take advantage of that and get pressure on Burrow in order to slow down the Bengals passing attack. However, the Bengals also have one of the best running backs in the NFL in Joe Mixon who they could lean on in that scenario.
The Bengals rank near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense and near the top in run defense, which doesn’t bode well for a Patriots team that likes to run the ball.
The advantage for New England in this game would come from coaching. Bill Belichick will be coaching in the playoffs for the 19th time in his career, whereas this will be Zac Taylor’s first appearance in the playoffs as a head coach. Taylor’s lack of experience in meaningful January football could become relevant in a close game.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
These two teams are very familiar with each other, as they split their two matchups on the season. Both teams would likely love to play each other again to prove who the best team in the AFC East really is, regardless of who wins the division.
The Bills handed the Patriots their worst loss of the season the last time they played, as Josh Allen made the Patriots defense look silly and the Bills defense clamped the Patriots passing game.
The Bills have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, but are susceptible to giving up chunks of yardage on the ground. The Patriots would need to play much better defense and control the clock with the run game in order to beat Buffalo for a second time.
Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo’s fifth string wide receiver, straight up smoked Myles Bryant out of the slot in the Bills win over New England. With Buffalo’s receivers all healthy again, it would be interesting to see if McKenzie plays a similar role knowing the advantage they have with him against Bryant.
Stefon Diggs got the better of Jackson the last time the two faced off. Jackson also dropped an interception and whiffed on a fourth down tackle. Jackson would need to step up and play much better in order to help slow down Buffalo’s passing attack.
At the end of the day, the New England Patriots will have their hands full regardless of who they end up having to go against in the Wild Card round. It’s going to take all three phases playing at their best to get a playoff win.