We have officially entered the NFL postseason. After a one season hiatus, the New England Patriots are back where they belong in the playoffs, and are looking to make some noise.
Unfortunately, after they fell apart over their final four games, the degree of difficulty has increased quite significantly for the Pats, and their quest to reach the Super Bowl starts with a trip to Buffalo to take on the Bills for the third time this season.
The AFC East rivals have already faced each other twice this season, and split their season series with one win apiece. In the initial contest, the Patriots pounded the Bills on the ground, and barely pulled out a 14-10 victory despite Mac Jones throwing the ball just three times. In the second game though, Josh Allen took over the proceedings, and helped Buffalo coast to a 33-21 win.
With the playoff seeding finally set, football fans will get to see the thrilling tiebreaker take place on the biggest stage so far this season. Win and you move on, lose and you go home. It doesn’t get much better than this.
Both the Patriots and Bills have struggled to fully grasp where they stand among the top competition in the NFL throughout the season, but this game will officially determine where both teams stand. It’s clear both squads are good, but whoever wins this will assert themselves over the other. And if the Patriots want to be the victor, they will have to play better than they did to close out the season. With that being said, here are 3 keys to beating the Bills on Saturday night.
New England Patriots key No. 3: Establish the run game
This one should be pretty self-explanatory. In the first two games against Buffalo, the Patriots ran the ball 73 times for 371 yards and four touchdowns. It’s clear that they are going to need a similar type of production in their third meeting if they want to walk away with a victory.
The key to making this happen is going to be Damien Harris. Harris has accounted for most of the production on the ground against Buffalo (28 CAR, 214 YDS, 4 TD) and he really only played the first half of the first game. Harris is going to be leaned on heavily to find some gaps in Buffalo’s front seven, just like he did in the first two games.
The problem is Harris has been used rather sparingly in the past two games. He’s only gotten 20 carries over the past two games, and has rarely found much usage outside of the red zone. He has admittedly been battling a hamstring injury, so maybe the coaching staff thought it would be in their best interest to try to get him healthy for the playoffs, but it’s time for Harris to reestablish himself as the best running back on this team.
The good news is that Harris won’t have to do all the work himself, and he should be relieved by Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden from time to time as well. I’ve been a proponent of using double running back sets out of the shotgun for awhile now, and maybe this is the game to pull it out to help open up some more running lanes against a Bills defense that has to know what New England is going to try to do.
There aren’t many secrets left between these two teams, and it’s certainly no secret that the ground game is going to have to come through if the Patriots want any shot of winning this game. If Harris can continue to find holes against Buffalo’s front seven, with Stevenson and Bolden chipping in too, New England will stand a much better shot of winning as a result.
New England Patriots key No. 2: Limit Josh Allen
It wasn’t clear in the first meeting when extreme winds forced both sides to keep the ball on the ground for the majority of the game, but Josh Allen is going to be the best player on the field for either team. He torched the Pats in their second meeting for 314 yards and three touchdowns. New England didn’t cover all their bases (specifically, unheralded slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie), and Allen made them pay.
The third time around, the Pats cannot allow Allen to get in the same sort of rhythm that he did in their previous matchup. Buffalo’s rushing attack has been a bit better in recent weeks, but there have been many instances where Allen has been his team’s top rusher this season. He’s a dynamic dual threat player, and if he gets going for Buffalo, it’s going to spell trouble for the Pats.
Based on their last matchup, the Patriots are going to have to add a couple of wrinkles to their gameplan in order to throw Allen off. They may not have to worry about a repeat performance from McKenzie considering Buffalo’s top slot receiver, Cole Beasley, should be on the field this time around. But even then, this team is still full of pass catching talent.
Considering the amount of talent the Bills have, it would seem to make sense for the team to throw more zone looks at Allen, rather than matching up in man coverage for the majority of the time. Guys like Myles Bryant and J.C. Jackson got beaten pretty badly the last time around, and considering how that game went, I don’t think the coaching staff is going to be in a rush to go back to what they did there.
Playing zone allows you to really differentiate your coverages on a play-by-play basis, and you can bet head coach Bill Belichick is crafting up some looks that will hopefully get Allen out of rhythm. The Patriots typically like to play in man for the majority of the time, but to slow down Allen, they may have to take a risk and switch things up. Pressuring Allen will help, but it will ultimately fall on the secondary to slow down the talented young gunslinger.
New England Patriots key No. 1: Get Mac Jones involved
Mac Jones first two games against Buffalo probably didn’t go the way he thought they would. Through the two regular season contests, Jones combined to complete 16 of his 35 passes for 164 yards and two interceptions. Compared to what we have seen Jones do at times this season, those are some pretty paltry numbers.
There are a lot of things that Pats are going to have to do different this time around if they want to win, but the number one thing they have to do is get Jones going early and often. This offense can function without Jones playing up to par, but they aren’t going to be able to beat Buffalo without him playing at his best.
It’s going to be up to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to get Jones going early. Draw up a few plays that will result in some easy looks for Jones to get him into a rhythm, and then open up the playbook. New England has steamrolled Buffalo on the ground in both of their previous contests without having any sort of passing attack to help them out. If Jones can figure out what looks the Bills are throwing at him and make the right reads, that’s a huge advantage for the Pats.
Based on how the last two games went, there should be matchups that Jones can take advantage of throughout this game. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bills line up five or six guys in the box throughout the game to try to limit the run game, and force Jones to make throws to win the game. It’s fair to expect Jones to be under pressure for most of his throws too.
He’s going to need some help from his receivers, but if the Bills force the Patriots to put the ball in Jones’ hands, he’s going to need to step up in a big way. Obviously the ideal situation would involve New England going up early and running the Bills into submission, but I wouldn’t count on that happening. This is going to be an absolute dogfight, and if the New England Patriots intend to prevail, they are going to need a big outing from their rookie quarterback.