The Boston Red Sox are gearing up for the start of the 2022 MLB season, which is just over a week away now. While it may seem odd to think about considering the MLB lockout only ended earlier this month, and Spring Training has really just gotten started, meaningful baseball is right around the corner.
For the Sox, that means it’s time to follow up on a wildly successful 2021 campaign that saw them make an unexpected run to the ALCS, where they would lose in six games to the Houston Astros. Boston has much of their core from last season returning, and while their AL East competitors have all made some improvements (particularly the Toronto Blue Jays), the Red Sox are expected to be duking it out for the divison crown once again.
Expectations for this season figure to be quite high considering how last season went, and while making it out of a packed AL East will be tough, Boston has enough firepower to go toe-to-toe with any team in the league. They may not be a legitimate World Series contender right out of the gate, but it’s worth noting they weren’t even expected to be a playoff contender when the 2021 season kicked off.
But what else should be expected for the Red Sox this season? Their pitchign staff as a whole is a bit shaky, but their lineup is extremely solid, and should be the driving force for many of their wins this season. With the regular season drawing near, let’s run through three bold predictions for the Boston Red Sox, starting with a prestigious feat for their most recent blockbuster acquisition.
Boston Red Sox bold prediction No. 3: Trevor Story will hit 40 home runs
The Red Sox kept quiet for most of free agency, but they salvaged what was looking to be a fairly awful offseason period with the signing of Trevor Story. Story, a shortstop by trade, will be making the switch to second base to solidify Boston’s infield. If Bobby Dalbec can build off his solid finish to the 2021 season, the Sox could lay claim to the best infield grouping in the league.
But that’s a discussion for another time; for now, we are going to talk about how Story is going to mash 40+ homers in his first season with the Red Sox. On the surface, it seems like a pretty outlandish take; after all, this is a column about bold predictions for the Sox. But a deeper dive shows it’s not as insane as it may seem, and it may end up being the most likely prediction here.
Story is widely regarded as one of the best power hitting middle infielders in the league, and for good reason. Aside from the COVID shortened 2020 season, Story has hit at least 24 home runs in every season he’s played at the major league level. Admittedly, he did benefit from playing half his games each season at Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies, which just so happens to be one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.
But Fenway Park isn’t that bad either, especially for right handed hitters who can elevate the ball enough to eclipse to Green Monster in left field. Story, a notorious pull hitter, has a swing custom made for Fenway. It may not be the friendly confines of Coors Field, but it’s a pretty close second, especially for a hitter like Story.
Story is coming off a down year thanks in part to an elbow injury, but he is fully healthy now. Considering he won’t have to tax his arm as much with long throws across the diamond now that he is at second base, Story should be counted on to be a consistent source of production all season long. He’s hit 37 and 35 home runs in single seasons before, and he will finally surpass the 40 homer total during his first season in Boston.
Boston Red Sox bold predictions: Chris Sale will win just six games
From pretty much the moment Chris Sale signed his five year, $145 million deal in the aftermath of the Red Sox 2018 World Series victory, everything has gone downhill for him. He labored through 25 starts in 2019, eventually got Tommy John surgery, and only made his return in August of last season. Even once he returned though, Sale didn’t really look like his old self.
His numbers in nine regular season starts were good (5-1, 3.16 ERA, 52 K), but he wasn’t the same dominant version of himself he was before his injury. He was basically a two-pitch pitcher, as he could not consistently locate his changeup enough for it to be used consistently. This led to him getting rocked in all three of his postseason starts, two of which ended up resulting in losses.
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There was hope Sale would be able to figure things out again this season with a full offseason under his belt, but he announced he had suffered a rib injury right as Spring Training started up, and he won’t be ready when the season starts. It’s just another setback for a pitcher who was at one point in time the most dominant left handed starter in the game.
Sale has been a mess since his new deal (truthfully, the troubles started late in 2018), and his new contract has been a massive loss so far. Nobody knows when Sale will come back, and even when he does return, how good will he be? He’s 33 years old, hasn’t been an effective pitcher for three seasons now, and is coming off yet another injury.
Maybe Sale returns and dominates, but I wouldn’t count on that happening, especially after last season. Many figure he can still be an ace, but Sale only profiles as a middle rotation guy at this point. Even if he makes an early return, I don’t see Sale having a successful season, and he will labor through another campaign where he only wins six of his starts.
Boston Red Sox bold prediction No. 1: The Red Sox will win the AL East
Given the amount of competition in one division, and the fact Boston had a pretty quiet offseason, not many people are picking the Sox to win the AL East. While they didn’t win it last season, they did end up being the last team standing among the group. Whose to say they can’t do it again this season and win the division in the process?
The Blue Jays had the most active offseason, and while they brought in some big name players (Kevin Gausman, Matt Chapman) they also lost some key players too (Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray). The Yankees re-signed Anthony Rizzo and maee swung a trade for Josh Donaldson, but they didn’t make a big move like they were expected to. The Rays were quiet, but they always find a way to exceed expectations, and 2022 will be no different.
Where do the Sox stand among these teams? Obviously it’s tough to tell right now, but there’s no reason to not feel good about this team heading into 2022. They beat both the Yankees and the Rays in the postseason last year, and while it’s a new season, neither team added enough to the point where they are better than Boston. Toronto seems to be the favorite heading into the season, but they have a lot of production to replace from last season.
Boston’s lineup is going to rake. They replaced the lost production from Kyle Schwarber and Hunter Renfroe by signimng Story, which is fine because there were times when one of those guys was being left out of the lineup because of positional issues. The pitching staff is a bit of a concern, but there are enough talented arms on the roster where it should sort itself out similarly to last season.
With a dominant lineup, combined with a rotation led by Nathan Eovaldi (and hopefully the aforementioned Sale), Boston is in a good spot to compete for the top spot in the AL East. It’s going to be an absolute battle between four really solid teams, but the Red Sox have positioned themselves well to repeat their unexpected success from the 2021 season, and I expect to see them at the top of the AL East once the season is over.