The New England Patriots are at the halfway point of their season and it makes sense to look at the current roaster and project ahead to the 2023 draft and where the team should target its choices.
Grades have been handed out on their 2022 performances to date but it’s not too soon to take stock and outline where they should go positionally as the 2023 draft looms, as well.
Of course, where the team should go and where they do allocate their draft picks positionally are two paths that seldom cross with the New England Patriots.
Too often they confound their fans and experts alike with not only the positions they choose when but also the choices they make at those positions.
Local Boston media critical of Patriots draft approach in recent years
Even top Patriots beat writers are often left scratching their heads as well as other observers at the Patriots draft pick strategy. One clarifying factor though was Mike Reiss, ESPN’s Patriots beat person who outlined their rather confounding strategy this way,
"The final number of realistic draft options for the Patriots was around 35 to 40 this year, carefully whittled down from more than 2,000 at the start of the process. The majority of NFL teams are in the hundreds of prospects on their draft boards. Belichick’s decision-making process on draft day is obviously affected by such a small list, which is the impetus for his frequent trades up and down the board. He has specific targets and manipulates the draft board accordingly."
That notwithstanding, let’s take a look at where the Patriots should draft and when from the mid-season vantage point.
The New England Patriots biggest offensive holes to fill
There’s an old saying, “The more things change the more they stay the same”. It’s certainly that way with the Patriots, as we look forward to the 2023 draft.
In 2022, they needed an offensive tackle, a game-breaking wide receiver, a guard, an edge pass rusher, and a defensive tackle. Look at 2023 and it looks just about the same.
The top priority (last season it was a top priority) now is a starting offensive tackle. He’ll start immediately on the right side. They are very thin still at offensive tackle and with Isaiah Wynn now not a tackle at all, they are getting thinner since he’s a free agent and unlikely to return anyway. Trent Brown will also be entering the last year of his deal.
The options in-house are not good unless the team puts mid-season tapped, All-Pro-level right guards Michael Onwenu over there next season. That’s not likely at this point. He’s too good at guard. O-tackle is the pick in the first round or whenever they first pick.
Again, the wide receiver, an annual proposition, is a key need for New England. Flop big-money free agency signing Nelson Agholor’s contract is up and re-signing him would be bizarre even for the Patriots. What he was supposed to bring, a receiver who can take the top off a defense is still a need for the Patriots.
Tyquan Thornton, the team’s second-round pick in 2022 has been a near bust in his first season. They need to go back to the well again at this position. In addition, Jakobi Meyers, for whatever inexplicable reason the team has, is unsigned. As J.C. Jackson, their best cornerback wasn’t re-signed last offseason, who knows if he will be?
Meyers is their best receiver and while not a game-breaker he’s uber-reliable. If he goes, add a second wide out to the needs list. One will be high up and at least one later on in the middle rounds.
New England Patriots draft needs on defense
On defense, the Patriots need two main additions. They need another pass-rushing edge player to complement Matt Judon. Josh Uche had a breakout game against the Colts with three sacks.
NESN.com notes,
"After managing just five sacks over the first 26 games of his injury-riddled Patriots tenure, the 24-year-old linebacker equaled that total over the last two weeks, including a three-sack hat trick in Sunday’s defensively dominant 26-3 win over the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium. He also registered four-plus quarterback pressures in each of his last three games after hitting that number just twice previously, per Pro Football Focus. This pass-rush eruption followed a drought in which Uche, a staple in New England’s third-down package, recorded zero sacks, zero tackle for loss and just one QB hit between Week 3 of last season and Week 7 of this season."
Consistency is the issue for Uche. He hasn’t been consistent. Should Uche again falter, this hole on the right side will continue to cost them against teams like Buffalo with the magical Josh Allen and Miami with impressive Tua Tagovailoa at the helm. Even if he continues his upward climb, injuries happen and a pick of an edge in the third or fourth rounds fits.
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In addition, the defensive line is aging and other than Christian Barmore, an emerging pocket-crushing star, and above-average Dietrich Wise Jr, they are not very productive. They need a makeover at D-tackle and drafting a big, young defensive tackle is a must in the middle rounds, third, fourth, and/or fifth.
There are and/or will be additional needs depending on who is or is not re-signed, e.g. the aforementioned Meyers and Damian Harris. They will mandate additional allocations of picks to fill those holes in the roster. It is just the way of any NFL team.
Yet, now, at the midpoint of 2022, the top needs seem to be roughly similar to those of 2022 that went unfilled. There’s lots of time until April and hopefully, a playoff berth (and a win or four!) beforehand will eventuate.
Nevertheless, it’s never too early to look ahead to the draft and what positions will be necessary to fill when the Patriots are on the clock. It’s really not that far away.