Ezekiel Elliott is officially a Patriot, but the fanbase’s reaction remains mixed. On the one hand, it’s exciting the see the Patriots nab such a big-name player, especially toward the end of a relatively disappointing offseason. On the other hand, it feels like an underwhelming consolation prize after losing out on DeAndre Hopkins in July.
After all, is an aging running back really going to move the needle for a team that’s still projected to finish last in the AFC East?
While some New England fans may be higher on Elliott than others, I have my doubts about his ability to make a major impact on the team this year. Bill Belichick has taken plenty of chances on star players who appeared to be washed up over the years. Some (Randy Moss) were massive hits, while others (Antonio Brown) were epic failures.
I fear that Elliott may ultimately be the latter. Here are three reasons why Zeke will be a massive bust for the Patriots.
3 Reasons Ezekiel Elliott Will Be a Massive Bust
1. Offensive Line Issues
I don’t want to take anything away from Elliott, who’s been a sensational running back for most of his career. But as most football fans know, he greatly benefitted from one of the best offensive lines in the league with Dallas. The Cowboys routinely opened up huge holes for him to run through and prevented him from getting taken down or tripped up in the backfield. As good as Elliott was, his teammates made him even better, enabling him to lead the NFL in rushing yards per game three times.
The Patriots, on the other hand, have one of the worst offensive lines in the league heading into 2023. This has already been apparent during training camp, as New England’s O-line keeps missing assignments and simply lacks the size, strength and quickness to hold off defenders. It also doesn’t help that some of them are learning a new offense for the second time in as many years, so they’re still working out some kinks as well.
This huge disparity in talent is evident in this year’s offensive line rankings at Sharp Football Analysis. Dallas is rated as a top-10 unit at No. 8, while New England is towards the bottom of the list at No. 22.
Suffice it to say, Elliott won’t have the help that he did with the Cowboys. That’s unfortunate for him because given his age (28) and declining production, he needs it more than ever.
Accordingly, expect to see a lot of Elliott getting stuffed at the line in 2023.
2. He’s Clearly Trending in the Wrong Direction
You don’t have to be great with numbers to see that Elliott’s stats have been steadily declining over time. His rushing yards per game average has declined every year of his career, from an amazing 108.7 in 2016 to a more pedestrian 58.4 in 2022.
Elliott’s efficiency has taken a downturn as well. Over the first four years of his career, he averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per carry. Over the last three seasons, however, that number has dipped to 4.0.
And that’s despite receiving fewer carries per game, which should have theoretically helped Zeke stay fresh and more explosive. After averaging 20.9 attempts per game from 2016-2019, he averaged 15.1 from 2020-2022.
Those numbers would be more palatable if Elliott was contributing more in the passing game, but he isn’t. In fact, he only caught 17 of 23 targets for 92 yards and 0 touchdowns last year — all career lows. His yards per target have fallen every year of his career as well.
In other words, all signs point to a player in obvious decline. There’s no reason to expect a bounce-back in 2023, especially with Elliott getting thrown into a new offense at the last minute and dealing with a weaker offensive line. He’s not getting any younger, and we should anticipate that his numbers will continue to fall this season.
3. He’s Not a Great Fit
As I alluded to above, New England just isn’t a great landing spot for Zeke at this stage of his career. The weak offensive line is a major concern, and he’s also suddenly thrust into a completely new environment halfway through the preseason. After spending his entire career in Dallas playing alongside Dak Prescott, he now finds himself in a different part of the country with a less experienced quarterback, a new OC and a notoriously tough head coach to play for.
Zeke only has a few weeks to learn a completely new playbook and get up to speed in Bill O’Brien’s offense, which many of his teammates are still learning as well.
He also finds himself in a much less potent offense than the one he left behind in Dallas. Whereas the Cowboys ranked fourth in points, 11th in total yards and ninth in rushing yards last year, the Patriots ranked 17th, 26th and 24th in those same categories. Things are expected to improve under O’Brien, but the ceiling is only so high without an elite quarterback and top-tier playmakers.
With a weak receiving corps and Mac Jones’ throwing issues, New England may resort to running the ball a lot this year. That doesn’t bode well for Zeke, who’s already struggling to handle a reduced workload. It also means he’ll likely face a lot of stacked boxes with opposing defenses anticipating the run, making life even harder for him as he struggles to get around his porous offensive line.
If Elliott had signed with a team that could better hide his flaws, I’d feel better about his chances for a rebound, but plugging him into a mediocre offense is simply asking for mediocre results.
If you’re looking to bet on (or against) the Patriots this year, there’s no better place to do it than Caesars Sportsbook. New users who sign up through the exclusive Chowder and Champions link below are eligible to claim Caesrar’s massive $1,250 promo. When you place your first bet of $10 or more, Caesars will automatically award you a bonus equal to the amount you wagered if your bet loses. So if you put $50 on the Pats and they lose, you’ll get a $50 bonus back. The offer won’t be around forever though, so sign up now to cash in!