The Patriots gave their offense a much-needed boost earlier this week by signing Ezekiel Elliott, giving them another potent running back to pair with Rhamondre Stevenson. While the team could still use help at wide receiver and cornerback, a strong defense and a powerful running game should give them a high floor heading into 2023, especially if Mac Jones bounces back under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.
With New England’s outlook for the upcoming season looking a bit brighter after the Zeke signing, it’s a good time to place some futures bets on the Pats. Sportsbooks are still relatively down on the team after its disappointing 8-9 campaign in 2022, meaning there could be some good value to exploit.
With so many betting options to consider, here are three bets to make on New England right now.
3 Patriots Bets 2023
1. Patriots OVER 7.5 Regular Season Wins
I was already mashing the Over on this one before the Pats signed Zeke, and now I feel even better about it.
Do the Patriots play in a tough division? Yes. Are they a perfect team? Definitely not.
That said, they could still be a good team, more like the one that went 10-7 in 2021 as opposed to last year’s 8-9 fiasco. Their defense should be one of the better units in the league, their run game is potent and they’ll be well-coached, which gives them a chance to win every game.
To me, the biggest key is that New England still managed to win eight games last year in spite of how many things went wrong. The offensive coordinator situation was a nightmare, obviously, and Jones wasn’t fully healthy. Throw in the quarterback controversy and the bizarre losses (i.e. the lateral game), and it’s a miracle that the Patriots were still in the playoff hunt until the end of the season.
A lot of those issues should be cleared up this year, so there’s obvious room for improvement. It’s also worth noting that Bill Belichick has never had back-to-back losing seasons during his time with New England, which reflects his ability to make the necessary adjustments and course corrections from season to season. Even if the Patriots are merely a .500-ish team again, they should still win at least eight or nine games and cash the Over.
2. Mac Jones OVER 19.5 Passing Touchdowns
Maybe I’m just saying this as a Patriots fan, but the sportsbooks seem to be undervaluing Jones here.
It’s worth remembering that Jones threw 22 touchdown passes as a rookie back in 2021. Even with his injuries and inept coaching staff last year, he still managed 14 TD passes in 14 games.
Assuming Jones stays healthy, I’m expected his performance to approach or exceed his 2021 numbers this year. Bill O’Brien is a gifted offensive coordinator and will make a huge difference with his play-calling, which should lead to more points for New England and more TDs for Mac.
While Jones’ weapons remain underwhelming, he at least has JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki now, which should help him add a few scores to his total after they combined for 8 tuddies last year.
My rationale is that if Jones stays healthy and plays all 17 games, he should have little trouble notching at least 20 TDs, as he only needs to average a little more than one per game to get there. I think he’ll probably end up in the 20-25 range, but even if he doesn’t clear this prop by much it’s still a winning bet.
3. Patriots to Make the Playoffs
I’m not going to recommend hammering this one, but I do think it’s still worth putting some money on, especially if we believe New England will win at least eight games.
The AFC is going to be tough this year, especially the AFC East, but the Bills are the only team that’s clearly better than the Patriots in their division. The Jets are making a huge gamble by entrusting their offense to a 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers, and the Dolphins are always one Tua injury away from disaster.
Maybe I’m just not as high on Miami and New York as some people, but they both look like risky bets to me. If they stumble and New England benefits from positive regression, the Patriots could easily finish second in their division.
If that happens, it means they’ll probably win at least nine or ten games, which would put them squarely in the Wild Card hunt. The Bills, Bengals, Chiefs and Jaguars all look like postseason locks in the AFC, and I expect the Ravens or Chargers to make it as well. That still leaves room for the Patriots to sneak in, though, as nobody else looks like an obvious contender to me.
You don’t have to squint too hard to see New England making the playoffs, as it did in 2021. And at plus odds, this is definitely worth a shot.
Looking to bet on the Patriots this season? There’s no better place to wager than Caesars Sportsbook. New users who sign up through the exclusive Chowder and Champions link below are eligible to claim Caesrar’s massive $1,250 promo. When you place your first bet of $10 or more, Caesars will automatically award you a bonus equal to the amount you wagered if your bet loses. So if you put $100 on the Pats and they lose, you’ll get a $100 bonus back. The offer won’t be around forever though, so sign up now to cash in!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.