Patriots Breakfast Club: Week 12 Lions vs. Patriots

Week 12 one-liner: “We’re the ones that they told you to run from, yeah the player’s gonna play, and a haters gonna hate”.

This has the smell of a trap game for your New England Patriots. With every national TV talking head looking forward to a possible Super Bowl matchup with the Packers next week, they cannot forget about the Detroit Lions.

For the Lions, if they want to have a chance against the red-hot Patriots they’ll need to establish a solid run game. Joique Bell and Reggie Bush need to get off to good starts, in order for Matt Stafford to air it out and exploit the Patriots defense. We’ll have to keep an eye on the status of Joique Bell, he has been battling an injured ankle and is listed as questionable for this weekends game. In last weeks game against the Cardinals, Bell totaled 85 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards. The Lions offense as a whole struggled last week against the Cardinals defense, but Bell was one of the few bright spots for the Lions. If Joique Bell is unable to play expect Reggie Bush to get the majority of the touches for the Lions, the veteran back has not had as much playing time this season only getting 53 rushing attempts through 11 weeks. No matter who is starting, the Lions are going to need a prominent rushing attack if they want to keep the game close. Having that balanced rushing attack will allow Matthew Stafford to use play-action and look for his receivers down field for that big play.

Speaking of airing it out, it should be interesting to see the matchup that Bill Belichick goes with in terms of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. One would have to think that Darelle Revis would cover Calvin Johnson, but why wouldn’t you have the bigger, and broader Brandon Browner match up with Calvin Johnson and have Revis cover Tate? Even though Revis has been a stud this season one would think the smarter matchup would be having him cover Golden Tate instead of Calvin Johnson. The comparison I’m thinking of would be when Von Miller tried to cover Rob Gronkowski earlier this season, and scored with ease. We’ll have to see what Coach Belichick decides on doing, but if I were him I would think long and hard before matching up Darelle Revis with Calvin Johnson.

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Switching to the other side of the ball, the Patriots offense will be interesting to watch early on and see what style they decide to play. Do they let Jonas Gray continue his dominance from last week? What is new RB LaGarrette Blount’s role in this offense? Do they try to catch Detroit off guard by throwing the deep ball early? These are all things to consider early on, I think the Patriots will have that balanced attack that we’ve come to get used to (aside from last week’s unusual run-first performance). With Tom Brady being out in his natural element (at home, in the cold, late in the season) I can’t see Brady struggling like he did early on in the season, or like he did last week. With that being said, you can’t help but acknowledge that Brady has been less than consistent all season long. In what may be the first signs of his decline, he seems to be making the adjustments and learning each week from them.

I am starting to love me some Brandon LaFell, it seems like every game there is one or two plays where it seems like Tom just tells Brandon to just run deep. His presence just adds to another layer of the offense and keeps defenses on their toes, between guarding Gronk, Edeleman, and the run having LaFell going deep down field just adds another element to defend. I would think that the balanced attack would allow the Patriots coaching staff to gather information on how Ndamukong Suh and fellow lineman Akwasi Owusu-Ansah are matching up and make changes throughout the game. The Patriots OL has been playing a lot better as of late, partially because they are making smarter blocks and using better angles to get the defenders off balance. These small details give Brady just enough time to find his man and get his throw off in time, which is why they have been looking so well as of late. I would expect this week to be their biggest test in terms of protecting Brady, they will not face a line as tough as the Lions. If they can matchup with Suh and Ansah allowing Brady to get enough time to get the ball out of his hand, it will be a GREAT sign for the Patriots moving forward.

The Dirt Sheet (My personal spin):

Taking all that into consideration, I’m going to go with a Patriots victory, I’m not sure if it will be a convincing win because I do respect the Lions defense (No. 1 defense in the NFL). But I am convinced that the Patriots defense will do its job defending ‘Megatron’ and take him out of the equation, which will leave Stafford to read this Patriots defense and find another receiver. After watching the Lions last week struggle to put up points against the Cardinals, I can’t help but think the same will happen again this week. I expect the Patriots to continue this impressive streak they have been on since their last loss at Kansas City.

My prediction:

14. 50. Final. 31. 47

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