New England Patriots: Where’s Jonas Gray?
(Edited 12/05/14 for statistical corrections)
It’s been just a few short weeks since 5’9’’, 225lb Jonas Gray channeled his inner Juggernaut against the Indianapolis Colts, racking up 4 touchdowns and 201 yards. And he’s been on the back of milk cartons ever since, ostensibly because Gray showed up late to a team meeting the following week. “He’s in Belichick’s doghouse!”, everyone lamented, as if Bill Belichick values whether a player sets a second iPhone alarm more than winning games. The LeGarrette Blount signing surely made the backfield competition more, uh, competitive, but Gray being benched for the time being isn’t as simple as either of those things. So here’s a reassessment of the running back situation…and a couple scenarios where we might see the little bruiser again.
(Note: everything from this point on is pure, 100% USDA Prime speculation. No “sources”, no “reports”, no meetings under lamp posts. Read on accordingly.)
LeGarrette Blount has seen some stuff
Not to get all Blade Runner, but LeGarrette Blount’s been in the league since 2010, and has been a consistent starter ever since, this year’s stint in Pittsburgh notwithstanding. And he’s seen some things. Different defensive fronts. Different blitzes. Different coverages. Different nickel and dime packages. Different loaded boxes designed to stop him. Different…you get the idea.
“But who cares??” people say. “Did you see Gray carve up the Colts defensive line like The Walking Dead?”
Yeah, and Blount did pretty much the same thing (166 yards, 4 TDs) against largely the same Colts defense in last year’s AFC playoffs. And it’s not like the Patriots are playing the Colts every week. From here on out, the Patriots play San Diego, and then three defensive fronts that range from above average (Jets) to well above average (Buffalo) to borderline terrifying (Miami). Belichick’s likely aware that Blount’s time on the field with Pittsburgh was limited (that’s a nice way to put it), and wants to get him in the best game shape possible before the playoffs.
Fullback Size, Running Back Speed
Matt Chatham (former Patriots linebacker) over at Football By Football does a great job showing how most of LeGarrette Blount’s yardage comes after contact. And as good as Gray was in his clinic against Indianapolis, Blount has shown time and again that if he can break a tackle, or get through the defensive line, pity whoever gets tasked with tackling a 6-foot 250lb running back that ran a 4.59-second 40 yard dash at his pro day. For reference, Adrian Peterson ran a 4.4 at the NFL combine, and currently weighs 217, almost 40 pounds less.
Put it another way: last year’s “Legion of Boom” Seahawks defense was a bunch of bigger, 6-foot-plus corners and safeties that made life miserable for smaller receivers. Blount is a big running back that makes life miserable for the defense trying to stop him. If Blount can crank out those tough yards after contact, consistently and in crucial situations, the more valuable he becomes to the Patriots. Which brings us to…
2015 and beyond
“The business of football”, as they say, is unpredictable. And there are some teams that like to sit down with a TI-83 and figure everything out to the dime, like New England, and sometimes teams would rather play roulette.
Next season, Shane Vereen and Brandon Bolden are both free agents, assuming the Patriots don’t lock them up first. So is Stevan Ridley, who came into 2014 as the workhorse back and only lost his job after his knee injury. Blount is under contract until the end of the 2015 season. He’ll also only cost the league minimum, plus incentives. In a bizarre way, this is very similar to the Johnny Manziel/Brian Hoyer situation in Cleveland. Since Belichick is New England’s de facto GM, his decision needs to take into account whether Ridley is worth resigning, whether Blount can handle being a feature running back in a complex offense, or whether he could use any combination of Ridley, Blount, Gray, and Bolden going forward. At the end of this year, I’m guessing he wants to see that Blount can keep up his end of the bargain for this season. Gray is still on a rookie deal, so keeping him is really a no-brainer either way.
Roster Flexibility
So, with that pesky business stuff out of the way, here’s a very practical reason Gray might be a ghost on the field lately: Gray is still eligible for the practice squad. Blount isn’t.
This isn’t about practicing (“We talkin’ ‘bout PRACTICE??”) as much as it is emergency plans. If, say, a linebacker can’t play, and the team has to call Deontae Skinner onto the field again, and Gray is the running back of the day, according to the gameplan, that’s another game ticking away on Gray’s eligibility to be put back on the practice squad if need be. It’s an extreme scenario, sure. But with Belichick’s focus on “situational football”, do you really think this hasn’t gone through his head?
Just like before he started, Jonas Gray is, once again, a victim of circumstances beyond his control. Everyone, coaches included, knows what he’s capable of. It’s not a question of being qualified. The Patriots need Brandon Bolden on the game-day roster for special teams, Shane Vereen for whatever play they dream up for him, and Blount to see if he’s able to carry the workhorse load from here on out this year. Without drinking too much blue Kool-Aid, the Patriots have played this chess match before. And more often than not, they come out on top.