Boston Red Sox Team, Pitching Projections for 2015
By Willy
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Much has been made of GM Ben Cherington’s comments regarding not needing a #1 Starter for his rotation. I am in the club that believes you Do need that top of the rotation arm (for many reasons) but let’s look at what Ben has provided this year’s team, allowing the numbers to speak for themselves.
Already in place is the inconsistent Clay Buchholz, who we just never know what we’re going to get. One safe bet when discussing Clay is he won’t be pitching in 30 plus games because he has never done so. Last year Clay was tied for 74th in Win percentage at .421, so for the sake of argument let’s keep that stat for this year’s projection. To add more to his success/failure rate we can also include that he had 13 Quality Starts last year (out of 28 starts), meaning 46% (not very good) of his starts he went 6 or more innings, giving up 3 or less Earned Runs.
Also returning this year is Joe Kelly, acquired half way through last year, coming off of an injury that kept him out of the Cardinals rotation from mid-April until the second week of July. I don’t believe we ever saw the best of Joe but let’s take a look at his stats. Last year (between two leagues) Joe was tied for 54th in Win percentage at .600, so for the sake of argument let’s keep that stat for this year’s projection. To add more to his success/failure rate we can also include that he had 8 Quality Starts last year (out of 17 starts), meaning 47% (not good) of his starts he went 6 or more innings, giving up 3 or less Earned Runs.
The first new comer to the Red Sox that I’ll address is Rick Porcello, who made great strides for the Tigers last year. Rick showed that he wasn’t just a bottom of the rotation pitcher for Detroit, he actually pitched well enough to be considered a #2 but in a typically weaker division then the A.L. East is. Last year Rick was 41st in Win percentage at .536, so for the sake of argument let’s keep that stat for this year’s projection. To add more to his success/failure rate we can also include that he had 21 Quality Starts last year (out of 31 starts), meaning 68% (quite good) of his starts he went 6 or more innings, giving up 3 or less Earned Runs.
Next up and another new name to the Sox rotation is Wade Miley. I must admit I hated this trade when I first heard of it but I have since softened on it. Part of why will be explained below (Quality Starts…). Last year Wade was tied for 78th in Win percentage at .400, so for the sake of argument let’s keep that stat for this year’s projection. To add more to his success/failure rate we can also include that he had 19 Quality Starts last year (out of 33 starts), meaning 58% (good) of his starts he went 6 or more innings, giving up 3 or less Earned Runs. Why Wade may have greater success in Boston then he did in Arizona is in the fielders behind him. The Red Sox are expected to have one of the better infield defenses this year and no one will benefit from this more than Miley.
Last but not least is a familiar face to the Red Sox, Justin Masterson, who is coming off his worst season (in his defense he was struggling with injury). For the Red Sox sake I hope Justin pitches more like the 2013 version than the 2014 one. Last year Masterson (between two leagues, including his Bullpen stints) was tied for 167th in Win percentage at .400, so for the sake of argument let’s keep that stat for this year’s projection (but let us all pray its closer to his 2013 stats). To add more to his success/failure rate we can also include that he had 8 Quality Starts last year (out of 25 starts), meaning 32% (awful) of his starts he went 6 or more innings, giving up 3 or less Earned Runs.
Taking the above stats into account we can now do the math.
Buchholz– 28 Starts, 12 Wins
Kelly– 28 Starts, 17 Wins (14 may be more practical)
Porcello– 32 Starts, 17 Wins (15 may be more practical)
Miley– 32 Starts, 13 Wins (I actually expect 15)
Masterson– 32 Starts, 13 Wins (I actually expect 15)
Total: 67-76 Wins, add in Bullpen Wins/minus loses; only equals: 68 to 77 Wins (start praying our Bullpen is better). Add in 10 late or comeback Wins by the Offense (typical from 2013);
Grand Total: 78-87 Wins.
This amount of wins “may” make the Red Sox a Wild Card winner but not likely a Division winner. That’s part of why they truly need a #1 Starter at some given point, I’d prefer him sooner vs later as they need to find a way to come up with at least 9 more Wins. Go Sox!