New England Patriots “Believers” in Analytics
Get out your calculators, nerds, it’s math time!
Turns out that Brad Stevens isn’t the only one who likes crunching numbers and dissecting statistics to unlock a team’s potential in Massachusetts.
ESPN.com featured an extensive piece today on teams in all four leagues (MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL) and how they use statistics, with each team ranked on how much value they put on analytics (which, for those of you who aren’t familiar, is studying data patterns and interpreting the results, or another way of saying, “If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck”.) Here’s the categories ESPN put teams into, in descending order:
1) All-In
2) Believers
3) One Foot In
4) Skeptics
5) Non-believers
ESPN’s Kevin Seifert goes on to say that the Pats’ use of statistics “…suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.” Good thing there was enough innovation left over after drawing up all those wide-receivers-throwing-touchdown-pass plays.
More on Pats and stats:
“Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.
Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: “Ernie’s really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie’s very, very smart.”
“One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.”
Owner Robert Kraft has always been the gregarious side of the Patriots, compared to Belichick’s Gregg Popovich, but Kraft’s business acumen and Ivy League education fit this approach like a glove. Assets, depreciating value, return on investment, elastic demand, and all those other words that your portfolio manager uses that you don’t really understand all come into play in the team’s final roster.
Also, it’d be completely logical to expect that NFL teams employing a heavy dose of analytics post more wins, hoist more Lombardi trophies, and get more parades.
It’d also be wrong.
Check out the “Believers” category:
(In alphabetical order)
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles
San Francisco 49ers
Pretty wild variance (that’s a math word!) in that group, at least in terms of on-field success.
On the flip side of the coin, the list of teams in the “Non-Believer” category is pretty much exactly what you’d expect:
New York Jets
San Diego Chargers
Tennessee Titans
Washington Redskins
The lesson to be learned here?
Stats aren’t just for baseball cards anymore.