Hoping for a Reduced Tom Brady Suspension is Foolishness
After Raging Against the Machine for almost two straight weeks, Robert Kraft appears to have removed “Killing in the Name” from #1 on his Spotify playlist. The Patriots owner tapped out on Tuesday, and his speech ran the gamut from pride, to disappointment, to resentment, to resignation, and, well, a little bit of rage.
“Although I might disagree what is decided, I do have respect for [commissioner Roger Goodell] and believe that he’s doing what he perceives to be in the best interests of [all 32 teams],” Kraft said, while speaking to the media at the NFL owners meetings. “So in that spirit, I don’t want to continue the rhetoric that’s gone on for the last four months.
“I’m going to accept, reluctantly, what he has given to us and not continue this dialogue and rhetoric. We won’t appeal.”
And, of course, it didn’t take long before Kraft’s complete 180 started the tin-foil hat crew’s theories that he had agreed to put down his guns in exchange for a reduced suspension for Tom Brady. With all the reports of “back-channel conversations”, it was too perfect to not be true. Indeed, our own editor and C&C podcast host extraordinaire DJ Smith wrote just yesterday about how Tom Brady’s suspension being reduced seems like as much of a done deal as LeBron throwing down an alley-oop.
The thing is, I don’t share the optimism.
It makes perfect sense in theory – Kraft backs off, makes his “I’m still not happy, but I’ll get over it *sniffle*” last stand, and then the NFL lets one of its biggest stars back on the field a few games earlier. The controversy and high-school-cafeteria antics go away, and everyone is at least sort of happy.
Aside from reports from guys like SI’s Greg Bedard and everywhere-at-once insider Adam Schefter saying that a deal was never made, the guy who issued one of harshest punishments in sports history can’t reduce or eliminate Brady’s suspension now without going backwards on literally everything he’s been doing for pretty much this whole calendar year. (And it’s MAY!)
Consider the following:
- Goodell reducing Brady’s suspension after reports of “back-channel conversations” would reek of an under-the-table deal
The “back-channel conversations” report (BackChannelGate?) is just too juicy for Patriots fans to think it means anything but Brady’s suspension getting thrown out like leftover fish, but the way that would reflect on the league would be an absolute disaster. A commissioner hell-bent on protecting the integrity of the game hires investigators and spends enough to buy 13 Lamborghini Aventedors on a 240-whatever page report finally nails his target, one of the greatest players in league history, cheating (or “probably” cheating, which is clearly close enough) and unleashes his wrath on the team and player he views as “repeat cheaters”.
And then, just in exchange for Robert Kraft cooling his jets, Goodell is going to take away most or all of the punishment he dished out to send a message in the first place?
The last thing Goodell needs right now is more people thinking the NFL is run like Goodfellas, and backtracking on Brady’s punishment after Kraft agreed to stop toilet-papering the league would paint the commissioner as even worse than incompetent – an incompetant mercenary.
Speaking of incompetance…
- Reducing Brady’s suspension acknowledges the flaws of the Wells Report
As mentioned above, Goodell spent an ungodly amount of money on the Wells report, which, aside from the conflict-of-interest implications in hiring someone to investigate…yourself, made it a point to address every last nook and cranny of the case, and was intended to be the end-all-be-all account on what REALLY happened in Foxboro. The Patriots’ chippy rebuttal aside, most other assessments seemed to fall into the line of “Well, there’s a few plot holes here, but…come on, man, they did it.” Which is precisely the intended message, given the language Wells used to arrive at his CSI: Massachussetts conclusions. What’s the message about the Wells Report, the Holy Grail of all that is BallGhazi, that gets sent if Goodell chops Brady’s suspension in half?
“Yeah, this thing isn’t really all that and a bag of chips, like we told you guys it was.”
That’s not a corner the NFL is going to paint itself into. Acknowleding that their investigation has more holes than a Packers cheesehead hat isn’t happening.
- Reducing/eliminating Brady’s suspension means the player, who the Wells Report found guilty, will get out easy, while the team, who the Wells Report found innocent, suffers Goodell’s wrath
Maybe this is only amusing to a few people, but since we know for a fact that the Patriots’ punishment of a cool $1,000,000 fine, a 2016 first-round draft pick, and a 2017 fourth-round pick will stand, the only domino left to fall is Brady’s appeal. This, despite the fact that the final pages of the Wells Report (I’ll stop mentioning it soon, I promise) goes out of its way to state that the Patriots, as a team, and Bill Belichick weren’t at fault. If Brady’s suspension is cut down at all, this is the end result:
The Patriots, who the Wells report specifically exonerates, get chokeslammed.
Tom Brady, who the Wells report specifically insinuates is guilty, either gets some slack, or walks away unscathed after brushing off his jacket.
It’d be funny if it weren’t the damn truth.
- Goodell has never reduced his own punishments on his own before
Not without someone twisting his arm, anyway. The Saints players getting their suspensions overturned following BountyGate? Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson winning their appeals? The only reason any of those happened was because a court told the NFL “Hey, you guys kind of flew off the handle on that one.” Aside from reducing some fines for on-field stuff, like, say, stomping on an offensive tackle, Goodell doesn’t go back, even if he’s shooting first and asking questions later.
- Goodell still wants to win the court of public opinion, and punishing the Patriots accomplishes that
This is where, after I made fun of conspiracy theory folks earlier, I get to make fun of myself for being a conspiracy theorist.
BUT…
When the news of Brady’s suspension broke last week, all that was missing was Roger Goodell shouting “ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED???”
People loooooved it. Outside of states where clam chowder is white, people loved the verdict so much that some people said it wasn’t harsh enough. All the same words people that have loathed New England’s domination since the days of TRL on MTV love flew over the Internet, airwaves, and sports bars all over again. Arrogant. Cheaters. Tainted. A-holes. Cocky. Glory boys. The Evil Empire. Spoiled. Obnoxious. Everyone who wanted a public evisceration got their wish, and then some.
And then Roger Goodell is supposed to have a change of heart, take it easy on Tom Brady, and undo literally all the sadistic goodwill he’s earned for himself by undoing the suspension?
Social capital isn’t easy to come by, especially this year. He’s not giving all the good vibes and kudos from where he made 31 teams’ fans day away.
- Goodell has all the chips and has no reason to budge.
Saved the simplest reason for last, because it’s the cold truth. Roger Goodell and his crew have all the leverage here. Yes, the Wells report isn’t perfect. Yes, the Patriots rebuttal raises some good points. Yes, the discipline is unprecedented and more about intimidation and holding grudges than fairness.
Doesn’t matter.
By altering Brady’s suspension in the slightest, Goodell will undo everything he’s done over the last four months, all the high-fives from fans, all the “Good job, we totally approve” from the 31 other owners, and all of his own hard-on for total compliance and “the shield”.
The hammer’s been brought down. It isn’t going back up.