Patriots Should Pass on Matt Forte

Matt Forte’s upcoming release by the Chicago Bears has Patriots fans excited, but ESPN and ex-Grantland NFL writer Bill Barnwell says there are smarter ways for the Patriots to approach free agency.

Usually, in NFL free agency, Patriots fans have visions of a stud wide receiver magically coming to New England on a renegotiated wicked-cheap contract, like Randy Moss did in 2007. Moss famously re-worked the last two years of his Raiders deal, where he was scheduled to make $9.75 million in 2007 and $11.25 million in 2008, to a one-year, $2.5 million dollar deal with New England (with some incentives). Now, every year, New Englanders seem to drool over a new wide receiver that might do the same thing.

Larry Fitzgerald! Calvin Johnson! Alshon Jeffrey! Brandon Marshall! Jordy Nelson! Mike Wallace! Vincent Jackson! And so on, and so on, and so on.

This year, though, it’s one of the best running backs of his generation that Pats fans are eyeballing – iconic Chicago Bears tailback Matt Forte.

By the team-building philosophy of Madden, this is a great idea. That philosophy, of course, is “X player kicked X amount of ass on X team, so when he joins MY team, X player will continue to kick X amount of ass, or possibly even kick more ass for my team!”

Ask Mike Wallace how that works out in real life most of the time.

Anyway, ESPN and Grantland NFL guru Bill Barnwell published the first couple articles in a series of offseason recommendations for each NFL division today, and here are the five recommendations he has for the Pats (we’ll circle back to Matt Forte in a second):

1)      Release Jerod Mayo. Duh. It sucks, but it has to be done.

2)      Cut Marcus Cannon and Brandon Lafell. No arguments here.

3)      Extend Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, and Chandler Jones. Yes. Give them all of the money.

4)      Sign a veteran offensive lineman. Again, no arguments here. This year’s AFC Championship was a nightmare, at best.

Here’s the fifth, and most surprising recommendation:

5)      Pass up Matt Forte and add a big back to replace LeGarrette Blount.

(Needle skips off the record player, everyone stares)

The primary reason? Even though Matt Forte has said he cares more about winning Super Bowls than making more money, Barnwell thinks the cheddar Forte will want will be too much for the Pats to shell out:

"“Forte might not make as much as he did on his last contract, but he should still come in somewhere around the $3 million to $4 million range, and that’s not something the Patriots like to do with running backs, let alone backs on the wrong side of 30. (That’s about the range at which they let Shane Vereen leave for the Giants.)”"

With pass-catching backs Dion Lewis and James White already under contract, Forte’s goal-line usefulness also comes into question.

"“What the Patriots do need, though, is a big back who can operate in short yardage. Forte, for all his strengths, has been well below average as a goal-line back during his pro career. Blount had been filling that role, but he’s a free agent and missed the end of the season with a hip injury. Blount was also making the veterans minimum base salary; if he wants a premium, the Pats will likely move on.”"

A lot of Pats fans are pointing at the team trading for beastly running back Corey Dillon when Dillon was 29 years old, but it’s important to remember that this trade took place in 2004. Among other things, that was before Colts President Bill Polian whined to the league about strictly enforcing pass interference in 2004, which kicked off the current explosion of the passing game (and resulting de-valuation of the running game). It’s amazing what a passing offense and a good quarterback can accomplish once defensive backs aren’t allowed to be mean to receivers anymore.

So, again, back to Matt Forte – if he’s probably going to price himself out of New England’s sweet spot, and may not be particularly suited for what they’ll need him to do anyway, who’s going to replace LeGarrette Blount?

Barnwell cites two guys that’d probably be relatively cheap – and one of them has, ironically, been a thorn in the Patriots’ side for almost a full decade.

That guy is ex-New York Giant Ahmad Bradshaw, who will be an unrestricted free agent this year unless the Colts make moves to re-sign him. Bradshaw played second fiddle to freight-train Frank Gore this season, and the Colts supposedly want him back, but haven’t re-signed him yet.

The other option is free agent running back Tim Hightower, who came out of nowhere with the New Orleans Saints in 2015 after not playing in the NFL for four straight seasons. At 6’0’’ and 226 pounds, and with the added bonus of having not logged as many carries as your typical 29-year-old back, this seems much more likely, given Bradshaw’s injury history.

The other other option is to draft running back talent instead of shopping for it, much like the Patriots did with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in 2011. This year’s class of running backs looks decent – six backs are projected to go in the first two rounds of the draft – but there’s that one minor issue that New England forfeited their first round pick over DeflateGate, and it seems like a pretty big stretch to imagine that Bill Belichick will spend his only second-rounder on a running back.

Everyone knows that the high spots on a Patriots draft board are reserved for defensive linemen, linebackers, the occasional offensive tackle, and, of course, anyone that went to Rutgers.