Boston Red Sox: No excuse not to sign Mookie Betts

Boston Red Sox vs. The Luxury Tax

The Boston Red Sox paid over $240 million for this year’s third place finish, tops in all of baseball. Tack on their luxury tax bill and it’s over $250 million. That’s before Chris Sale‘s extension kicks in, which will double his salary from $15 million this season to $30 million for the next three seasons (and over $20 million for the three following that).

Entering next season, the Red Sox will have Sale, David Price, Bogaerts and, likely, Betts and J.D. Martinez (if he doesn’t opt out) making $20 million plus. Toss in Nathan Eovaldi‘s $17 million and the Red Sox will probably be on the hook for over $120 million for just six players.

But, that’s also pretty much it. If Rick Porcello does resign, it will be for far less than the $20 million he “earned” this past season. Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce, Brock Holt, Erasmo Ramirez and Chris Owings represent an additional $18 million likely to come off the books. Pablo Sandoval‘s retained salary drops from $19 million in 2019 to just $5 million in 2020. Andrew Cashner and Sandy Leon are also likely to depart.

Rusney Castillo ($13.5 million), Pedroia ($13 million) and Christian Vazquez ($4.2 million) are the only other Boston Red Sox players with guaranteed contracts entering 2020, and Castillo’s doesn’t count against the luxury tax threshold. They’re currently projected for a payroll around $150 million, with Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman all eligible for arbitration.

Point is, while it won’t be easy to limbo under the tax threshold (expected to be around $208 million), it is possible, even if the Red Sox sign Betts long term.

First, just because his average annual salary might be $34 million a year, that doesn’t mean Boston will be paying him that exact figure in 2020 or 2021. The Red Sox might choose to structure the deal so that it ramps up in value slowly to help mitigate luxury tax concerns. This is the last year Sandoval’s salary will count against the tax, while Pedroia’s deal mostly comes off the book after 2021. So maybe Betts’ extension starts at $25 million for 2020 before jumping to $30 million for 2021 and $35 million a year after that.

Second, there are other ways the Boston Red Sox can create wiggle room to sign Betts and stay below the tax threshold. Primarily, they would need to trade Bradley, who made $8.5 million this year and was already the subject of trade rumors in the past. Barnes, Workman and Hembree could all be moved as well, which would thin out the bullpen. But with ERod likely to receive a significant bump as he approaches 20 wins, tough decisions will need to be made. And the emergence of pre-arbitration relievers Marcus Walden, Darwinzon Hernandez, Colton Brewer and Josh Taylor would mitigate their loss.

Indeed, most importantly, the team does have several pre-arbitration players ready to play important roles next season. Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis will be fixtures in next season’s lineup,  while Walden, Hernandez, Brewer and Taylor should all be on the roster.

Travis Lakins and Marco Hernandez are showing signs they could join them. And top Red Sox prospects Bobby Dalbec, CJ Chatham and Tanner Houck are on track to debut at some point next season, with Jarren Duran, Bryan Mata and Durbin Feltman not far behind.

So if Mookie Betts is wearing a different jersey than that of the Boston Red Sox over the next several seasons, there will be no shortage of excuses for why. Just know that most of them ring hollow and the Red Sox should blame no one for his departure other than themselves.