New England Patriots: 1 gritty prediction vs Baltimore Ravens in Week 3
The New England Patriots play the Baltimore Ravens Sunday in their third game of the 2022 season at Gillette Stadium.
Coming off a big win last Sunday against the Steelers, this first home game is special but the Ravens will be keen on ruining the Patriots’ homecoming. Both teams have a 1-1 record.
Before making “Mike’s pick for the week”, let’s take a look at a few factors that will influence the prediction. Note: keep in mind that a prediction in this space against the Patriots that is accurate is a plus for the prognostication record.
Yet, frankly, missing on the prediction, in that case, is even better since the Pats have won. Sort of a win-win situation, but that in no way will impact the prediction, of course.
The New England Patriots vs the always tough Ravens
Any game against the Baltimore Ravens is a tough game. One reason is that Baltimore is well-coached by John Harbaugh and the company. In addition, for years they had one of the best general managers in the business, a personal favorite, Ozzie Newsome.
Newsome is a Pro Football Hall of Famer as a player and should be enshrined as an executive, as well. The man who is now semi-retired could flat-out construct a football team.
That brings up the biggest factor in favor of the Ravens this Sunday. That’s one of Newsome’s best draft choices ever, from 2018. With Baltimore’s 2018 first-round pick, Newsome selected Lamar Jackson, one of the NFL’s most exciting players.
The Patriots had two first-round picks in 2018 at number 23 and number 31. Those picks were used on tackle, Isaiah Wynn, and running back Sony Michel.
The 32nd pick that year was yes, you guessed it, the aforementioned Lamar Jackson. Now, this is an especially sore point in this space. At the time, it was hoped the Pats would take Jackson on the 23rd pick, but then definitely select him with the 31st pick when he unbelievably, inexplicably fell right into their laps at 31. They didn’t, of course.
This is an enduring draft gaffe that keeps on hurting. Meanwhile, both Wynn who has underachieved, and Michel who was traded for a meager sixth-round pick were poor choices.
Jackson, though he is nursing an injury, will likely play on Sunday. He’s the Patriots’ worst nightmare. He can pass and he is one of the NFL’s most explosive runners. Containing him is the Patriots’ defense’s number one priority. If they can, they should win. If not, they’ll emerge 1-2 on the season.
The defense this offseason was presumably built to be faster to be able to stop or at least slow down running quarterbacks like Jackson and Buffalo’s Josh Allen. Sunday will be the first big test of whether they can.
New England Patriots prediction against Baltimore
After stopping Jackson, the Patriots need to achieve a couple of other goals. The first is an adjunct to the previous goal, keep the ball out of Jackson’s hands altogether. Running the ball as they did on the final drive against the Steelers is the way to it with the dynamic duo of Damian Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.
That will entail controlling the line of scrimmage and being less predictable. Can the Patriots offensive line emerge from that magnificent last drive and do that job consistently? It will help mightily to determine the outcome Sunday.
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Concomitantly, the offense and quarterback Mac Jones in particular have to be more consistent in converting on third down. If they can run and convert, this game is eminently winnable. If not, not so much.
So here’s “Mike’s prediction” against Baltimore. The Patriots’ offensive line will indeed demonstrate cohesion ignited by their domination of the Steelers by keeping the ball for over six minutes to close out the tilt. It’s big-time progress and it says here they’ll continue that upward trend.
In addition, though underwhelming the first two weeks, Mac Jones will have a big game with a more than 70 percent completion rate against the Ravens. He’s due. Earlier, it was predicted that the offense would be the driver for this team and it will finally emerge boosted by a vociferous home crowd and score some points.
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The defense will keep Jackson in check when he is on the field (as much as can be expected), and won’t allow many big plays. That’s the key.
The end result, and “Mike’s prediction” is a gritty New England Patriots win in a big game along the lines of a 27-21 score. We’ll see Sunday how this one works out.