It’s not just the Boston sports world that’s quiet as we wait for Patriots training camp to kick off. Some of the Chowder and Champions team is getting some much needed load management ahead of the rush of the NFL season, so you’re left with only yours truly giving a betting pick for Friday.
And with the Red Sox getting ready to kick off a series against the New York Mets at Fenway, you better believe I’m looking at getting some Friday night baseball betting action.
Here’s my top betting pick for Boston sports on Friday
Best Boston Betting Picks: July 21
Jason Schandl: Adam Duvall OVER 0.5 Home Runs
Kodai Senga is on the mound for the Mets tonight, and he’s been about as good as advertised so far this season. It’s an intimidating matchup, and I’m not about to bet against him straight-up here. But there’s been an interesting quirk to his numbers that I do think presents some betting value.
Typically we expect right-handed pitchers to do best against righty bats and to post worst numbers against southpaws. That’s not been the case for Senga in 2023, giving up a slash line of .216/.316/.395 against right-handed hitters and just .189/.292/.272 against left-handers. Sometimes numbers like this are just a quirk, but it does seem to go deeper than being a fluke.
The advanced metrics show an even more pronounced gap. His 3.31 xFIP against left-handed bats is stellar, but a 4.08 xFIP against right-handers is very exploitable. He also has significantly better strikeout-minus-walk rate (19.0%) against lefties than righties (17.0%).
Going even further, he’s only giving up fly-balls on 29.2% of the batted balls hit by left-handers, but that numbers leaps to 38.7% against righties. And that comes with a very slightly higher hard-hit rate too.
So what does this all mean? It means that despite being a nasty pitcher to face off with, right-handed power bats are still in a pretty solid spot against Senga.
Adam Duvall’s slugging percentage this year (.523) is right up there with the numbers he was posting in his prime, and he’s never been a guy to really suffer with platoon slits. His career isolated slugging (ISO) number against righties sits at .238, which is even slightly against of his .234 mark against southpaws.
Paying out at better than 4-to-1, I’m going to bank on Duvall swatting his second homer since the All-Star break.
And if you’re not already a DraftKings Sportsbook user, you can get $150 guaranteed just for backing Duvall here. All you have to do is sign up through the exclusive Chowder and Champions link below, deposit at least $10 and wager at least $5 on Duvall. Then it doesn’t matter if he goes yard or not, you’ll automatically get a $150 bonus. Plus if he does hit a homer then your pay will pay out in cash like usual. It’s a win-win, so sign up now!
Already a DraftKings user? There are a few other books offering big bonuses to Boston bettors too!
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