With the Red Sox off today and Patriots training camp not starting until later this week, it’s a pretty quiet day in Boston sports. Still, that doesn’t mean there aren’t good betting options to consider, especially across the AL East.
Here are our editors’ top betting picks for Monday.
Best Boston Betting Picks: July 24
Jason Schandl: Red Sox to Make Playoffs
Day off or not, it’s a good day to the bet on the Red Sox. FanGraphs’ latest playoff odds projections have Boston at 28.8% to make the postseason. Obviously that’s still not a super likely outcome, but when we’re finding long-shot betting value we’re never going to be looking at things that are overly likely. What we’re trying to find are bets that will hit often enough to turn a profit.
And that’s what the Red Sox’s playoff odds are offering. To turn a long-term profit on a +285 wager, you need it to win more than 26.0% of the time, which is exactly what FanGraphs is projecting here.
And FanGraphs’ projections don’t take into account potential future roster moves. With a real chance in this Wild Card race, Boston could end up being buyers at the deadline, and then we’d see a big shift in these odds.
Basically, you’re probably not going to get a better price than this on Boston unless it decides to blow things up at the deadline. Even if things remain pretty much neutral from here, you’re getting some really nice value at an almost 3-to-1 payout.
Tyler Maher: Dodgers Moneyline vs Blue Jays
The Red Sox get a day off today to prepare for the incoming Braves, leaving baseball fans to look elsewhere in the division. The Yankees and Rays are off as well, but the Orioles and Blue Jays are both in action.
With Boston still 8.5 games behind Baltimore’s division-leading squad, Toronto-LA is the more relevant game for Red Sox fans. The Blue Jays are only two games ahead of Boston for third place in the AL East, so a loss tonight would enable the Red Sox to pick up some ground.
Fortunately for Boston, Toronto has a tough road matchup on tap against the Dodgers. The Jays continue their West Coast trip in Hollywood on Monday after dropping two of three in Seattle over the weekend.
Toronto has now lost four of its last six and sends Jose Berrios to the hill to stop the bleeding. Berrios is back to being himself this year after a down 2022 and owns a sparkling 1.47 ERA in July.
The Dodgers are trotting out Michael Grove, who’s been tough to trust from a betting standpoint in 2023. He’s 2-2 with a 6.40 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 52 innings, although he has been better in July with a 3.60 ERA and a 3.62 FIP in 15 innings this month.
Grove isn’t the only one on Los Angeles having a great month, either. The surging Dodgers have won 10 of their last 13 with a +47 run differential during that span.
So even though Toronto has the edge in the pitching matchup, it’s tough to fade LA here. Take the Dodgers to win outright at home, where they’re 29-16 this year.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.