The Red Sox get a well-deserved break today after sweeping a two-game series against the Braves, so we’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see if they can extend their four-game winning streak. At least Patriots training camp is underway to help keep us entertained.
In the meantime, we’ve got a couple of futures bets to consider. Here are our editors’ top betting picks for Thursday.
Best Boston Betting Picks: July 27
Jason Schandl: Patriots to Win AFC East
I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I think the Pats should be the favorites to win the AFC East or anything, but after reading Tyler Maher’s case for why they can do it, I’m sold on this being a great bet.
The biggest thing that stands out to me is how overrated the Jets are. Being second at +270 to win the division is crazy. I get that Aaron Rodgers has been incredible, but I’m not sold on him turning that team around.
First of all, he was actually kind of bad last year, ranking 20th among 33 qualifying QBs with 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt. Second of all, it takes some time to build chemistry, and Rodgers has famously not worked well with young playmakers in recent years. With New York so overhyped, the rest of the AFC East suddenly looks a lot better.
And for New England specifically, this line seems to be reflecting what the team looked like last year in Mac Jones’ second season and with an offense being run by the wrong coaches. But don’t forget that both Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen didn’t really break out until Year 3, and now Jones will be in a much better position to succeed in a Bill O’Brien offense.
If you’re into long-shot value, the Pats are a fun bet here.
Tyler Maher: Red Sox to Make Playoffs
I must admit, I wasn’t expecting the Red Sox to sweep their two-game series against the Braves this week. I would’ve been perfectly happy with a split against the best team in baseball, so winning both games was huge.
The Sox are off today, so it’s a good time to take a look at where they stand in the playoff hunt.
After four weeks of incredible baseball (15-5), they’re now eight games over .500. That’s still only good for fourth place in the crazy AL East, but they sit 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the last Wild Card spot. We still have seven games remaining against Toronto, too, which gives us a good chance to pass them.
According to Baseball-Reference, Boston has a 39.3% chance of making the postseason. That’s still not great, but it’s a lot better than what our chances were a month ago.
More importantly, it shows that the Red Sox are a good value bet right now. DraftKings currently gives them +210 odds of making the playoffs, which translates to a 32.3% implied probability. Based on the Red Sox’s playoff chances above, however, those odds should be closer to +155.
In other words, DraftKings is giving us extra value on Boston, so let’s jump on it while we still can!
And remember, if you sign up for DraftKings Sportsbook through Chowder and Champions, you’ll be awarded a $150 GUARANTEED bonus after placing your first $5 wager – and it doesn’t matter whether that $5 bet wins or loses.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.