2. He’s Clearly Trending in the Wrong Direction
You don’t have to be great with numbers to see that Elliott’s stats have been steadily declining over time. His rushing yards per game average has declined every year of his career, from an amazing 108.7 in 2016 to a more pedestrian 58.4 in 2022.
Elliott’s efficiency has taken a downturn as well. Over the first four years of his career, he averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per carry. Over the last three seasons, however, that number has dipped to 4.0.
And that’s despite receiving fewer carries per game, which should have theoretically helped Zeke stay fresh and more explosive. After averaging 20.9 attempts per game from 2016-2019, he averaged 15.1 from 2020-2022.
Those numbers would be more palatable if Elliott was contributing more in the passing game, but he isn’t. In fact, he only caught 17 of 23 targets for 92 yards and 0 touchdowns last year — all career lows. His yards per target have fallen every year of his career as well.
In other words, all signs point to a player in obvious decline. There’s no reason to expect a bounce-back in 2023, especially with Elliott getting thrown into a new offense at the last minute and dealing with a weaker offensive line. He’s not getting any younger, and we should anticipate that his numbers will continue to fall this season.