2. Mac Jones OVER 19.5 Passing Touchdowns
Maybe I’m just saying this as a Patriots fan, but the sportsbooks seem to be undervaluing Jones here.
It’s worth remembering that Jones threw 22 touchdown passes as a rookie back in 2021. Even with his injuries and inept coaching staff last year, he still managed 14 TD passes in 14 games.
Assuming Jones stays healthy, I’m expected his performance to approach or exceed his 2021 numbers this year. Bill O’Brien is a gifted offensive coordinator and will make a huge difference with his play-calling, which should lead to more points for New England and more TDs for Mac.
While Jones’ weapons remain underwhelming, he at least has JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki now, which should help him add a few scores to his total after they combined for 8 tuddies last year.
My rationale is that if Jones stays healthy and plays all 17 games, he should have little trouble notching at least 20 TDs, as he only needs to average a little more than one per game to get there. I think he’ll probably end up in the 20-25 range, but even if he doesn’t clear this prop by much it’s still a winning bet.