I’m not usually one to bet on narratives that the public is clinging to — the sportsbooks know about all the narratives too, and any actual value they have is often priced into the betting lines.
But I’m all-in on Ezekiel Elliott in his return to Dallas to face the Cowboys on Sunday. And it doesn’t have anything to do with the emotion in this game.
Patriots vs Cowboys Prop Bet: Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Over 27.5 (-115)
The Patriots are expected to be playing from behind in this game for sure, but as 6.5-point underdogs it’s not like they’re expected to go down 20 and have to abandon the run entirely. When your offensive identity is trying to be focused around running the ball you’re not going to stop doing that just because you’re down by a touchdown.
The Cowboys’ biggest defensive weakness is stopping the run, ranking 15th in Pro Football Focus’ run defense grade, but 3rd in defense overall. Bill Belichick is never shy about attacking defenses where they’re most vulnerable, and this should be a week with a pretty run-heavy gameplan.
In Week 1 Zeke handled 35% of the Patriots’ running back rush attempts. In Week 2 that fell to 25%, but in Week 3 it jumped up to 46%. He’s playing about a third of New England’s offensive snaps, and that should continue getting him some decent volume when the Pats do commit to the run.
Averaging 4.36 yards per carry this season and facing a middling defense that shouldn’t ding his efficiency, we only really need Zeke to see about 7 carries to be a favorite to hit at least 28 yards. And in a game like this it feels much more likely that he handles double-digit rush attempts.
Unless you think he falls down to 2.8 yards per carry or below, those rush attempts would be plenty to get to the over here.
So whichever direction you look at it, it’s hard to see him falling short. If he only gets 6 or 7 carries he could still hit the over by rushing at his usual efficiency in a matchup that should allow him to do at least that. And if he gets even 10 carries, all but a total dud of an efficiency day will get him to 28.
And of course, what better way to bet on your hometown team than doing it on your hometown sportsbook? Sign up for WynnBET now to back Zeke and the Patriots!
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.