If the short postseason experience taught us anything, it is that the Boston Red Sox need to complement Garret Crochet with a true No. 2 starting pitcher. Free agency this winter offers little recourse, but Boston has a history of acquiring big-name pitchers via trade rather than open auction. With a glut of cost-controlled outfielders, Craig Breslow retains plenty of capital to push for one of the bigger stars on sale.
The Deadline Darling
While the much-rumored Jarren Duran-for-Joe Ryan swap did not occur this past July, there remains a chance that such a deal may be consummated during these colder months. Ryan, ace of the rebuilding Minnesota Twins, is a strike-thrower par excellence, with strikeout and walk rates better than average in each of his four seasons. As a flyball pitcher, he will also draw assistance from Boston’s arrangement of three potential Gold Glovers in Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu (assuming Duran is part of the trade).
Ryan also carries the advantage of being under control for the next three seasons. At just twenty-nine years old, this would bring him up to the end of his prime, thus alleviating the Red Sox of worries over a poorly aging extension.
The sole hitch in acquiring Ryan would be his slightly above-average gopher rate, which is, in part, a necessary tradeoff to his style. On the other hand, Target Field consistently ranks among the more home run-friendly venues, while Fenway Park, somewhat surprisingly, rates as a more amenable atmosphere in this regard (Fenway boosts everything but home runs).
Twins’ Twin Pitcher
Of course, Ryan is not even the sole veteran the Twins are looking to move this offseason. Pablo Lopez is only three months older than his counterpart, but may be an even better fit for the Red Sox. He, too, is a strike-thrower, though to a lesser extreme: his strikeout, walk, and home run rates are all slightly better than league average.
Unlike Ryan, Lopez has a track record as a workhorse, having pitched at least 180 innings in three consecutive seasons before injuries to his hamstring and shoulder truncated this past campaign. Despite the maladies, Lopez had the best ERA of his career (2.74), albeit in only 14 starts, while also having the first below-average groundball rate of his career.
The drawback with this righty regards his contract status—Lopez is under control for only two more seasons and is due nearly $22 million per year. However, this in turn could mean his pound of flesh may be extracted with less suffering to Boston’s roster—either the Red Sox could pass a lesser package of prospects across the table, agree to take on the bulk of the payment due, or some combination of both. Boston will also need to gamble on his future health.
A Blooming Connection
In the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals are entering a similar rebuilding phase. They will look to jettison their pricier veterans, a goal which the Red Sox have already looked to profit from. Last winter's rumors concerning Nolan Arenado coming to Boston; at the July deadline, the two clubs did make a deal, with the Red Sox sending prospect Blaze Jordan for lefty reliever Steven Matz. Additionally, former front office head Chaim Bloom now holds the reins in St. Louis and pushed for the acquisition of Jordan.
The Cardinals possess one veteran starter of particular interest in Sonny Gray, a third right-handed strike thrower. Gray, entering his age-36 campaign, has a sturdier track record for durability than Lopez, and leans towards inducing groundballs (in contrast with the flyball-generating Ryan). While he has allowed more home runs the past two years, those are exceptions to his career tendencies—even when pitching for the Cincinnati Reds in their homer-happy Great American Ball Park, Gray limited big flies.
Of course, the primary issue with trading for Gray remains the attached price tag: St. Louis promised him $35 million for 2026 and holds a $30 million option for 2027, with a buyout at one-sixth that wage. For comparison, Garret Crochet’s extension with the Red Sox tops at $30.67 million in its final year; Los Angeles Dodgers SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s backloaded contract peaks at $33.17 million. Only if the Cards are willing to retain a significant portion of the sums owed should Boston aggressively pursue this addition.