The Boston Red Sox are a team that should be active ahead of the MLB trade deadline. Sitting five games back of the Toronto Blue Jays for first place in the American League East, the Red Sox could dive into a prospect pool ranked third in baseball to upgrade their roster. But with 10 teams within five games of a playoff spot entering Friday, the demand for established major leaguers has never been greater.
This leaves teams like the Red Sox in a position to get creative. With several young players coming through the pipeline, Boston could make a blockbuster deal to land an impact starter with the deadline approaching. It makes a highly-paid former All-Star an obvious trade candidate and someone that could be expendable in the coming weeks.
Red Sox OF Jarren Duran on the Chopping Block Ahead of MLB Trade Deadline
This time last season, Jarren Duran was looking like a long-term staple for the Boston Red Sox. His 2023 breakout, where he hit .295/.346/.482 with eight homers, 40 RBIs, and 24 stolen bases, was a stepping stone for his first All-Star appearance in 2024, where he hit .285/.342/.492 with 21 homers, 75 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases.
Just how good was Duran’s 2024 season? He led Major League Baseball with 48 doubles and 14 triples, and his 8.7 wins above replacement were the most by a Red Sox hitter since Mookie Betts logged 10.7 WAR in 2018. He was also the seventh Red Sox position player to generate 8.7 WAR since the divisional era began in 1969 and was an elite outfielder with 23 defensive runs saved.
But this season has not been a suitable encore. Duran is having a solid year, slashing .260/.318/.434 with eight homers, 50 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases, but it’s a far cry from the massive year he was having at this time one year ago. Duran is also posting a career-high 92.1 mph exit velocity, but he’s seen his strikeout rate jump to 23.9% and his walk rate drop to 6.6%.
The analytics don’t hint at a player that should be jettisoned out of town, but Boston’s outfield situation has the walls closing in ahead of the trade deadline. Wilyer Abreu is having a strong season in right field, hitting .257/.325/.502 with 18 homers and 52 RBIs, and Ceddane Rafaela has shaken off a slow start to hit .323/.351/.634 with six homers and 18 RBIs over his past 27 games.
Neither Abreu nor Rafaela figured to be a long-term threat to Duran’s position in left field; however, Roman Anthony is turning out to be The Undertaker to Duran’s A.J. Styles, looming behind him as a threat to take his spot in the lineup.
The top prospect in all of baseball, Anthony got off to a slow start, but has adapted to major league pitching, hitting .382/.433/.527 with a homer and eight RBIs over the past 13 games.
Having four quality outfielders isn’t a bad thing for the Red Sox's playoff chances, but the writing could be on the wall. Rafaela is signed through 2031 with an option for the 2032 season, while Abreu isn’t scheduled to be a free agent until 2030. Anthony figures to be a long-term piece along with fellow top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, and Duran could be a victim of the numbers game.
With teams like the San Diego Padres heavily linked to the 28-year-old before the deadline, it feels like a deal is imminent — especially if they can get a quality starter. That leaves the Red Sox continuing to have an eye on the future but also trying to maximise their potential in a weak American League pennant chase.