I actually like the Boston Celtics' outlook for next season. Honestly. Of course, I still have questions about the Jaylen Brown trade and how the whole thing went down, but strictly on paper, the Celtics have a lot going for them.
They were just the No. 2 seed last season; Paul George is a great fit on paper (and might actually be healthy this year); Jayson Tatum is about to be the clear-cut No. 1 option for the first time in his career, which is exciting; Payton Pritchard should be in line for the biggest role of his career; Mitchell Robinson is a great addition; and players like Baylor Scheierman and Hugo Gonzalez should make big leaps.
Celtics fans should be excited about what next season could look like. They have been counted out before and exceeded expectations, and history might repeat itself this year.
However, in order for that to happen, every single thing needs to go right for them. And the odds of that happening? Very slim.
Celtics might be relying a bit too much on luck (no pun intended?)
To be a championship team, you need to be good and lucky for the most part. The Celtics, as currently constructed, are good, but they are playing with their luck a bit.
George has a lot left in the tank and can be a fantastic sidekick to Tatum. He is also 36 years old and has played 55 more games in a season just once since 2018-19 (74 games with the Los Angeles Clippers in 2023-24). Despite what he says and how he feels, his track record of staying healthy isn't great, and considering how important he is to Boston's success, this could backfire.
The same goes for Robinson, who has played 60 or more games in just three of his eight NBA seasons (this does include last season, to be fair). You mean to tell me you trust Luka Garza (even though he had a fun season last year) to be a real backup center to Neemias Queta in a playoff series? Because I don't.
We are also assuming (or at least I am) that Pritchard, Gonzalez, and Scheierman will all succeed in their expanded roles. But what if they don't? The Celtics don't really have many backup options, and they have already invested so much in them. Pritchard sometimes struggles in big situations, Gonzalez still can't shoot, and Scheierman might not be the shot-creator they need him to be yet (assuming Pritchard enters the starting lineup and the Celtics need more bench scoring).
And what if Derrick White's shot doesn't come back? He just had one of the least efficient seasons of his career last year and was a nonfactor in the playoffs, at least offensively. Maybe he can bounce back since he won't carry as much of the offensive load, but he's also 32 years old. His future isn't getting much brighter.
But again, what if it all works out for the Celtics?
What if George and Robinson actually do stay healthy? What if Pritchard makes something close to a Jalen Brunson-type leap the Celtics are apparently hoping could happen? What if Gonzalez and Scheierman prove that Boston was right not to include them in trade packages for Giannis Antetokounmpo, and they actually become real assets? And what if White does bounce back?
The beauty (or pain) of sports is that every player, team, era, scenario, etc., carries a risk and reward. Only time will tell what Boston ends up getting in the end. It genuinely could go either way.
To quote an anonymous former NBA GM, "Fortune favors the bold" (I wonder who that guy was and what happened to him... I guess we'll never know). And the Celtics are certainly banking on that being true right now.
At the end of the day, the Celtics have a good team on paper. And if it can work out the way they think it can, then they should be in a good spot to surprise some people and make a deep run.
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