The NBA offseason kicked into high gear even before the NBA Finals wrapped up. The Grizzlies shipped Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for a haul of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four unprotected first-round picks, and one first-round pick swap. The Magic seemingly view Bane as a piece that can push them into the upper echelon of a weakened Eastern Conference.
The trade draws similar comparisons to the Mikal Bridges trade last year, in that an NBA team felt comfortable that with the trade, their future first-rounders would be of limited value. The interesting thing about trades is that they often tell fans how NBA execs value their assets. With the Celtics looking at some roster shake-up this offseason, how does the Grizzlies-Magic trade inform potential trades for Jrue Holiday or Kristaps Porzingis?
Both Holiday and Porzingis were key pieces to the Celtics' championship run in 2024. Both have contracts that have led to the Celtics looking to offload them based on salary constraints and the potential, after Jayson Tatum's injury, that they will not be a true contender this year.
Porzingis has one year left on his deal at $30 million. Holiday's contract is a bit more daunting, two years left with a player option for a third year, totaling $104 million left on the deal. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has one year at $21 million with a player option for another $21 million.
The Magic obtained a superior talent in Bane, who ranks as the 47th-best player in The Ringer 100 (but could be argued should be higher), but they also sent out a bad contract in Caldwell-Pope. If there was only one year left, it could be considered cap relief, but since Caldwell-Pope can opt in to the Grizzlies in 2026-27, the Magic likely paid a premium and attached a first-round pick to offload that contract.
Bane Trade Means the Celtics May Need to Add Assets to Offload Holiday and Porzingis
In looking at the Celtics, fans should be concerned that to offload Porzingis, teams may be looking for an attached first-round pick. In a weakened East, the Celtics should still contend next year and will be considered frontrunners if Tatum returns, even at 90% of where he currently is. The Celtics are in a good place with their own draft capital. They could attach a pick to a Porzingis trade, and teams should be open to taking on a talent like Porzingis, a first-rounder, and having Porzingis' salary come off the books.
Unfortunately for the Celtics, Porzingis is trending down as an asset, after his late-season illness on top of his injury concerns. It doesn't seem like the market for Porzingis will match that of Bane and might be closer to that of Caldwell-Pope.
If the Celtics are concerned about what Porzingis might bring back, they should be terrified at the cost of moving Holiday. At the end of Holiday's contract, he will be a 37-year-old point guard making $37 million. Even if things go perfectly, Holiday at best projects to be what Mike Conley is for the Timberwolves, except at nearly four times the cost.
The Celtics are open to moving Holiday (as they should be). Brad Stevens and the front office have been operating from a place of strength and are used to winning trades. It's good to head into negotiations with the mindset of "winning" the trade, but the entire league knows the Celtics' plan. It already puts them in a difficult position. In order to move Holiday, a team would need to think he is the missing piece for next year, and even then, may want multiple picks to take on the contract.
Already being at a disadvantage from a negotiating standpoint, this Bane trade compounds the issue. The Celtics reportedly aren't a fan of the most recent trade offering from Sacramento, and if teams are looking to be compensated to take on bad contracts, the front office may want to lower their expectations.
The Bane and Bridges trades are signs that teams are willing to mortgage the future for ascending assets. Unfortunately for the Celtics, Porzingis and Holiday, while they can contribute next year, are depreciating assets. Both were instrumental to the 2024 championship, but Porzingis is an unreliable asset due to his injury history, and Holiday is, at best, at the beginning of his decline as a contributor and could be a hindrance to a team at the end of his current contract.
If either Porzingis or Holiday were truly planned to be moved this offseason, the Celtics should be cursing the Magic. Moving players will be tough this offseason anyway, with teams acutely aware of the tax implications. If there truly is a "bad contract tax", both Porzingis and Holiday are candidates for making the Celtics pay it.