The opening odds for the Celtics-Knicks playoff series are out, and it is very clear that the sportsbooks do not want you to make any money on the Celtics in this series. The Celtics series Moneyline opened around -900 at most spots and was subsequently bet up to -1000 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
-1000 is a 91% implied probability of victory. Celtics fans should feel good about that, but it's still a basketball series, and the games have to be played and won. Given the amount of nagging injuries to starters like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Jrue Holiday, the Celtics would be wise to not mess around with this Knicks team.
The regular season matchups were certainly encouraging as the Celtics went 4-0 against this Knicks squad. They averaged 125 points per game and shot 44% from three in their four games against the Knicks this season.
The Knicks' defense stylistically does not match up as well with the Celtics' offense, as they tend to give up a lot of quality threes. The Knicks have ranked 23rd in opponent three-point % allowed this season. This defense should be a breath of fresh air for the Celtics' offense, as the Orlando Magic did a fairly good job of defending the three-point line in the first-round series.
An area where the Celtics will have to improve this round is defensively, as the Knicks, led by Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony Towns, are a much better offense than what the Celtics faced in the first round. New York ranked fifth in offensive rating (119.5) and seventh in halfcourt offense this season. We've seen Jalen Brunson elevate his game in the playoffs over the last few seasons, and with Jrue Holiday still fighting his hamstring injury, the Celtics will need Derrick White to guard Brunson for much of the game, a task he is certainly capable of.
In terms of regular season net rating, the Knicks finished the season at +5.3, making them the most difficult playoff opponent the Celtics have faced over these last two postseasons. The Cavs, Pacers, and Mavericks were all below +3 in regular-season net rating last season. Of course, the same will be true for the Knicks as the Celtics are the most difficult opponent they've played, but the point is that the Celtics should not take this star-heavy New York Knicks team lightly.
Celtics fans should be encouraged by the respect they are rightfully getting from Vegas, but it is imperative that the Celtics play with urgency this series, given their injury concerns. The Celtics deserve to be favorites, but this Knicks team is talented enough to win a few games and should not be taken lightly.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.