With the NBA Finals over, all fans can begin to turn to the promise of a new season. With the upcoming NBA Draft and the start of free agency, fans can start to ask themselves “What if…?” about their team's upcoming chances.
There has been a lot of talk in Celtics circles about how the team should handle the 2025-26 season. Most of that talk has been around two things: who can we trade? And how should the front office approach a season without Jayson Tatum?
Tatum’s injury in the NBA Playoffs made the Celtics' hopes of a championship this season and next season disappear. At best, the Celtics looked like a 4th seed in the East next year. The Knicks, Pacers, and Cavaliers all appeared to be realistic contenders for the Eastern Conference championship. Then the Orlando Magic took a swing with the Desmond Bane trade and announced they wanted to be part of that conversation. Oh, and there is still the issue of Giannis Antetokounmpo, even without a strong number two option on the Bucks.
But the NBA is never short on drama. The Knicks fired head coach Tom Thibodeau and seemingly can’t find a replacement, and then the Pacers suffered a similar fate to the Celtics, when star Tyrese Haliburton went down with a leg injury in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Rumors circulate around what the Cavaliers may do since they are facing a hefty tax bill just like the Celtics.
With certainty, the Pacers will not be as good next season without Haliburton. It's also likely, if healthy, that the Magic and Pistons should take a step forward. The Knicks may take a step backward with a new coach. The Bucks could struggle even with an MVP candidate on the roster. Depending on the roster moves the Cavs make, they could slip a little or run away with the conference.
Should the Celtics Like Their Chances in the East Even Without Tatum?
In looking at which players create wins for their teams, last season, Tatum accounted for 9.5 wins according to Basketball Reference. That puts the Celtics around 51 wins next year if everything else is the same. Haliburton accounted for 10 wins, which would drop the Pacers to 40 wins next year (that math may be off due to the Pacers' tough start this season). Damian Lillard’s injury takes seven wins from the Bucks. The Desmond Bane addition adds 6.5 wins to the Magic.
If the games were played in an algorithm, the East shakes (wins in parentheses) out as Cavs (64), Knicks (51), Celtics (51), Magic (47), Bucks (41), and Pacers (40). Assuming that the Pistons improve based on experience alone, that puts the Celtics somewhere between the second and the fifth seed. Two weeks ago, it seemed unlikely the Celtics would even get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
If the Celtics hit the All-Star break with the No. 2 seed, they can easily make a push to win the conference title. The Celtics have the experience and roster to be competitive and even make a deep playoff run in the East, considering the early offseason turmoil and injuries. Considering the morale of fans just a few weeks ago, the Celtics still have the fifth-best odds to win the NBA title next year per FanDuel Sportsbook, most of that based on injuries and an ultra-competitive Western Conference, and nothing to do with what the Celtics have done.
It's expected that the Celtics will make moves this offseason for salary purposes, but as long as they stay net neutral in terms of on-the-floor impact, the Celtics should land in the upper echelon of the East. Unless there is a cataclysmic move this offseason, the Celtics should still be looking forward to a deep run in the playoffs next year.
More Boston Celtics news and rumors:
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.