Time of death: 2:58 left in the 4th quarter of Game 4. The Celtics' championship hopes officially died in front of us. It was quick, but it wasn't painless. It brought forward something most Celtics fans have known since the 2023 offseason: the roster construction was incredible, but it was unsustainable. Now, Brad Stevens has to look for ways to make the next window open.
The Celtics are a "second apron" team. It effectively works as a hard cap, putting a ceiling on spending and levying significant restrictions on roster building. While Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens have been maestros of maneuvering their roster to get the Celtics to Banner 18, the new CBA looks to balance the league and bring forward greater parity. It can be argued whether or not this is a good thing for the league, but for the Celtics' new ownership group, it puts them in a tough spot.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White account for $197 million in base salary. To put that in perspective, the salary cap projects to be $154 million, the luxury tax $178 million, the first apron $196 million, and the second apron $207 million. To say it’s not great is an understatement considering Tatum isn’t playing until at least April.
The Celtics have some options to explore. In exploring those options, it will shed light on two things: who they value and who the rest of the league views as valuable.
Let’s start with Tatum. He’s untouchable from the Celtics' perspective, but he’s heading into his peak prime and just ruptured his Achilles. It would take a godfather offer, and that seems unlikely. He's staying.
Next, Jaylen Brown. If the Celtics wanted max value out of a trade, Brown would be it. Brown has the ability to be the leader of a team, but not every day. He can take over a series, but not a season. Calling Brown “Robin” to Tatum’s “Batman” undersells what Brown brings to the table, but his ceiling seems to be "second-best guy on a contender, best guy on a play-in team". The Celtics are not in a full rebuild, and trading Brown would be a signal to fans that the 2025-26 season is a wash.
That leaves Holiday, Porzingis, and White to move. With the emergence of Payton Pritchard, it would seem one of the guards would be expendable. However, Porzingis finds himself at a crossroads, with an expiring contract and a bad injury/health history. Really, any of the three could be traded this year with the right offer.
Derrick White is younger, has a lower salary, and is, quite frankly, just a better all-around player than his Olympic teammate, Jrue Holiday. By almost every basic and advanced metric, White is the better player. A duo of White and Brown would keep the Celtics competitive in most games.
Between Holiday and Porzingis, it is probably easier to trade the latter. 7'4" centers that can space the floor don't grow on trees. It also helps that he'll offer cap relief after next season to whoever takes him on. From a basketball standpoint, though, Porzingis brings the best out of the Celtics with his ability to fluctuate from the post to the three-point line. His shooting alone puts a strain on defenses. While not the most effective rebounder, on this roster, he's the best big man by far. Even if the Celtics wanted to upgrade there, the offensive efficiency would be a significant downgrade.
Celtics Must Trade Jrue Holiday
This will not be the place to build out fake trades, but Holiday offers value to teams who could use an upgrade at the point guard position. He's experienced and talented enough to still be the third-best player on a contender.
He's not as efficient as White. He's not as talented as Brown and Tatum. He's not as versatile as Porzingis. Combine that with his remaining contract, and someone is going to be looking at a 37-year-old Holiday with a $37 million player option. Outside of steals and assists, he barely rates in the top half of the team in most efficiency stats.
From a Celtics standpoint, this makes the most sense. He pushes a young contender over the top. The problem would be that many of those teams don't have a need at guard. Of the core pieces, Holiday is the contract that the Celtics need to move. The problem will be, does the rest of the league want him?