On June 15, 2025, the Boston Red Sox had just completed a weekend sweep of the New York Yankees, raising their record to a game above .500. Within hours, they had traded their longest tenured player for three minor leaguers; within two weeks, they had fallen three games below .500 again, apparently destined for another middling season of mediocrity.
A month later, the Red Sox won their tenth straight game and entered the All-Star break 53-45. On the morning of September 19, the Red Sox had dropped their last two series to the Yankees and the Athletics, and their playoff odds, according to baseball-reference.com, had dropped by ten percent in less than a week.
Now, this September 26, Boston requires only a single win in their final three games to clinch their first postseason appearance in four years. Their greatest threat, the Detroit Tigers, is also their opponent. A third team, the Houston Astros, faces the lowly Los Angeles Angels and would need to sweep them while the Tigers do the same to Boston to gain access to October. In short, the Red Sox are in complete control of their destiny.
Sliding Tigers Present Temptation
While Boston’s pitching staff seems to be running out of gas, they remain in fine fettle compared to that of the Tigers. Detroit has blown a 14-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians, a margin sustained by double digits as late as September 3, suffering the roughest September since the Beer and Chicken Red Sox of 2011. Still, another team that blew a 14-game lead rebounded to win their last ten games and force a 163rd contest to determine fate—that being, of course, the 1978 Red Sox.
History shows, therefore, that there remains hope in Detroit, and Boston would do well not to look ahead.
Projected Pitchers
Kyle Harrison will take up the banner for the Red Sox in Game 1, followed by Connelly Early on Saturday. Sunday’s starter shall be determined by the relative flow of fortunes, as a mere split in these first two contests will guarantee the second Wild Card seed, allowing manager Alex Cora to pass the final start to someone unneeded for the postseason.
Harrison, of course, was the headline return in the Rafael Devers trade with the San Francisco Giants on June 15. After spending his first three months with the organization retooling at Triple A, the young southpaw has made two appearances, a solid three innings of relief against the Athletics on September 10 and a quality start against the Rays ten days later.
Harrison’s fellow left-hander had a historic major league debut, striking out 11 Athletics in five innings on September 9. Early had a similarly successful outing against them a week later before struggling in Tampa on September 21.
Detroit will pit former number one overall pick Casey Mize against Harrison, then may move Tarik Skubal up a day to pitch Saturday, if met with defeat tonight. Needing to stay ahead of Houston, Tigers manager AJ Hinch's options for a third must-win game are uninspiring; youngster Keider Montero has pitched to mixed results since returning from the minors at the start of the month, and a bullpen game stirs hardly any more confidence.
Mize, after years of injury, has put together his second full season at the major league level. However, that unaccustomed workload may have reduced his effectiveness in the second half of the season; since July 12, the first overall selection in the 2018 draft has posted a 5.84 ERA in a dozen starts. Between his last two outings, Mize has allowed six runs in 11 innings.
Skubal is the reigning Cy Young Award winner and stands in a dead heat with Garrett Crochet for this year’s election. He leads the American League in pitching WAR (6.6), ERA (2.21), and WHIP (0.891), and is second to Crochet in just about every other category.
Red Sox Lineup Favorable Against Mize, Less So Skubal
With the recent return of right fielder Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox can place five left-handed batters in the lineup against Mize, who has little experience with Boston batsmen. Only Jarren Duran has more than five plate appearances against Detroit’s Game 1 starter, having battered him for three hits in eight at-bats, including a home run and a walk.
Abreu and Alex Bregman have three doubles in nine at-bats between them; in conjunction with the pitcher’s recent struggles, one should expect an offensive outburst from the Red Sox in tonight’s game.
Skubal, naturally, presents a greater threat. Only Bregman has a record of success against the flamethrowing lefty, with six hits in twelve at-bats, including a three-for-three performance earlier this year that featured a home run. Typical masher Rob Refsnyder has managed not a hit in his last eight against the same pitcher, striking out in half.
Conclusion
Altogether, the Red Sox seem certain to win at least one of these games, if not against Mize than in the projected bullpen game on Saturday. The only scenario that fans fear is if Boston drops those two contests while the Astros beat the Angels, forcing a do-or-die matchup against Skubal on Sunday.