In only four months after becoming the new head coach of the Patriots, Mike Vrabel has rebuilt the coaching staff, cleaned up the roster, and helped guide New England in the 2025 NFL Draft, which has been considered to be the best in the NFL this season.
That said, Vrabel is in a prime position to become the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year. He would be the 11th coach to win it twice and only the seventh to win it with multiple teams overall in the history of the NFL.
The Patriots have seen two coaches win the award, with Bill Parcells in 1994 and Bill Belichick, who is one of two coaches to win the award three times in NFL history in 2003, 2007, and 2010. Vrabel, who won the award in 2021, would be the third coach to win it in New England.
In the past, coaches have won the award for having a winning season only after turning around a losing team from the season prior. There are other instances where a coach has won the award for improving an already successful team.
For example, when Belichick won in 2003, he went from a 9-7 team in 2002 to 14-2 and won the Super Bowl. In 2006, he went from 14-2 and lost in the conference championship, to 16-0 in 2007 and lost in the Super Bowl. And in 2009, he went from a 10-6 team to 14-2 in 2010 and lost in the divisional round.
When Vrabel won it in 2021, he went from an 11-5 team that lost in the wildcard to a 12-5 team that lost in the divisional round. So, despite losing in the playoffs, Vrabel’s teams have improved with him as the coach.
I say all of this to explain that winning percentage is not the sole factor in winning Coach of the Year, and the actual structure of the team and staff are important elements to the equation as well.
Can Mike Vrabel Win NFL Coach of the Year?
So, what does Vrabel need to do in order to win Coach of the Year in his first season with New England?
First and foremost, Vrabel needs to lead the Pats to a winning record after they only won four games in 2024. For the last two years, New England finished with a 4-13 record and last in the division. If he can win more games and the division, it proves that his overall impact and methods work and contribute to winning.
Vrabel said that he wants to win the division, which the Patriots haven’t done since 2019, ending an 11-year run. It’s also the last year they won over 10 games. Winning the division represents being poised enough for the playoffs over the other three teams. In this case, it’ll prove that Vrabel’s impact on his team is greater than three other coaches in the division.
It’s also worth mentioning that Vrabel’s coaching staff is full of experience, and by hiring them, it makes him look even better for doing so.
The Patriots have never won their division with less than 10 wins, so Vrabel could kill two birds with one stone by winning over 10 games and then securing the division, which has gone through Buffalo since 2019, when New England last won it.
The current odds have Vrabel tied as the favorite or with the second-best odds to win Coach of the Year behind the Chicago Bears first-time head coach Ben Johnson:
DraftKings: Vrabel +600, Johnson +600
FanDuel: Vrabel +850, Johnson +650
Vrabel has the upper hand on Johnson in terms of coaching, as being a veteran head coach is invaluable in the NFL. I believe Vrabel will actually win Coach of the Year for the 2025 season.
One last note. Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year in 2020 in his first year with Cleveland, and in 2023. Each time he got the Browns in the playoffs, Stefanski won Coach of the Year.
So if Vrabel can lead the Patriots to win the division and to the playoffs, he’ll likely win Coach of the Year.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.