We don't yet know the exact order of the Patriots' 2025 schedule, but we do know the opponents. The Patriots have the daunting task of facing the Buffalo Bills (home and away), Baltimore Ravens (away), and Cincinnati Bengals (away). By circumstance of their 2024 record, they also face some easier opponents in the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders (both at home).
Without knowing the order, we can't speculate on player fatigue, rest inequalities, early-season chemistry issues, or late-season apathy or rest. We can only look at these matchups based on where they're happening and who should be on the field.
An upset is when a team has a limited expectation to win. Based on ESPN BET's NFL Futures, the Patriots should be even or favored to win ten of their games. They won't win all of these, but they should have a good chance to keep these games close, if not win outright.
Pats fans should expect to chalk up wins against the New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, and New York Jets (twice). They can expect a toss-up with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Miami Dolphins.
That leaves the Patriots looking at an uphill battle against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens. Arguably, each of these teams has a top 10 quarterback, and the Bengals, Bills, and Ravens are looking at top 5 quarterbacks. Playing these teams can often turn into a track meet, and last year, the Patriots' offense was not equipped to keep up.
Drake Maye should progress this year and with the additions of Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, and Kyle Williams, Maye has more weapons to keep up with these offenses. Between that, an improved offensive line, and a returning offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. Putting points on the board won't be an issue.
The Buccaneers have an explosive offense led by their passing attack. Last year, Baker Mayfield had his best season ever, and with the addition of Emeka Egbuka to an already stacked offense, expectations for similar production this year are warranted. The Bucs do have to worry about a defense that, at times, struggled to keep points off the board against top offenses. The Patriots could come away with a win, but even if they did, it wouldn't be a huge upset.
Last season, the Bills out-tanked the Patriots in what will forever be known as "The Joe Milton Game". It would be expected that a similar circumstance could occur again for the Bills, who could be looking at a first-round home matchup in the playoffs and resting their starters at the end of the season, but the Patriots should be fighting to win as many games as possible.
Intra-division matchups are often closer than expected. The teams are more familiar with each other and get the chance to alter game plans based on what didn't work in the first game. Assuming that the Bills win in Buffalo, a close matchup, if not a win, could happen in Foxboro. If the Bills take a win in Foxboro first, and the Patriots continue to grow as a team during the season, a close game, if not an outright win, could happen in game two this year, albeit for much different reasons than the Bills' tank job last year.
Patriots Should Be Able to Beat the Bengals Against All Odds
That leaves the Ravens and Bengals as what project to be the most difficult matchups of the year. The Ravens, led by Lamar Jackson, are elite. A perennial Super Bowl contender, the Ravens have elite talent on both sides of the ball and depth. Whether early season or late season, facing the Ravens in Baltimore is definitely a loss.
"On to Cincinnati," as they say in Foxboro. The Bengals have the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl, and their offense, barring injury, will once again be elite. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins form a prolific passing attack, and the Bengals brought back Mike Gesicki, who was rejuvenated in the Bengals offense.
The issue is the Bengals' defense. Outside of Trey Hendrickson, pressure on opposing quarterbacks was non-existent. The Bengals addressed defense in the draft, but first-rounder Shemar Stewart is high-upside and projects to be a work in progress. In that same vein, teams that struggle to create pressure often lack solid pass defense.
The Patriots have a new look offense capable of keeping up with the Bengals. It is expected that the Patriots' defense, under new head coach Mike Vrabel, will take significant steps forward. While the oddsmakers may say that the elite production of Burrow and the Bengals offense will lead to wins for Cincinnati, improvements on both sides of the ball for New England and a lacking Bengals defense make this game a high likelihood of an "on-paper" upset. The Patriots should go into Cincinnati as the underdog but emerge victorious.