The New England Patriots (13-3) have one of the top records in the NFL and clinched their first AFC East championship since 2019 by defeating the New York Jets, coupled with the Buffalo Bills losing in Week 17. With the Patriots winning the division, they guarantee themselves a top-four seed and will host at least one playoff game.
With one more week of the regular season, there are still some games that will impact New England’s playoff seeding and who its opponent will be in the first round. That said, the Patriots will secure one of the top three seeds, as the top team in the AFC North will be the No. 4 seed.
The Patriots will host the Miami Dolphins in their regular-season finale on Sunday. Here is a guide on how the Patriots' playoff seeding will unfold after that contest comes to a close.
New England Patriots Playoff Seeding Scenarios
No. 1: There is only one way for the Patriots to land the No. 1 seed, and it’s by winning their game against the Dolphins and with the Denver Broncos (13-3) losing to the Los Angeles Chargers (11-5). It’s worth mentioning that the Chargers defeated the Broncos, 23-20, in Week 3, but plan to start Trey Lance over Justin Herbert at QB on Sunday.
No. 2: The Patriots will finish with the No. 2 seed if they defeat the Dolphins and the Broncos defeat the Chargers. If these are the outcomes after Week 18, then the Patriots can’t finish any lower than the second seed.
No. 3: This is where the logistics can get complicated at the top of the AFC playoffs. The Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) play against the Tennessee Titans (3-13), and if they win and finish the season 13-4, the Patriots will become the third seed for the playoffs, as they’ll have the same record as the Broncos and Jaguars.
The Patriots would also be in the third seed if they lose to the Dolphins and both the Broncos and Jaguars win.
Wild Card: If the Patriots lose to the Dolphins in Week 18, they won’t be in the No. 1 seed, which will force them to play during Wild Card Weekend in the second week of January. One of the four teams will be the winner of the AFC South between the Jaguars and the Houston Texans. The team that loses that game will join the Chargers and Buffalo Bills as the wildcard teams.
In this scenario, if the Patriots don’t get the No. 1 seed even if they defeat the Dolphins, they will be the second seed to start the playoffs.
This is how New England could end up playing against any of the wild-card teams after Week 18 outcomes:
Chargers: Pats win, Broncos defeat the Chargers, and the Bills defeat the New York Jets. Or the Patriots lose, the Broncos defeat the Chargers, the Bills defeat the Jets, the Jaguars lose to the Titans, and the Texans lose to the Indianapolis Colts.
Bills: Pats win, Broncos defeat the Chargers, and the Bills lose to the Jets. Or if the Patriots lose, the Broncos defeat the Chargers, the Bills defeat the Jets, the Jaguars defeat the Titans, and the Texans defeat the Colts.
Texans: Pats lose, Texans lose to the Colts, Broncos defeat the Chargers, Jaguars defeat the Titans, and the Bills defeat the Jets. Or if the Patriots lose, the Broncos lose to the Chargers, the Jaguars lose to the Titans, the Texans lose to the Colts, and if the Bills defeat the Jets.
Jaguars: Pats lose, Chargers defeat the Broncos, Bills defeat the Jets, Texans defeat the Colts, and the Jaguars lose to the Titans.
The Patriots are poised for a deep playoff run as they continue to regain health and solidify their 53-man roster for the postseason. For fans, it’ll be essential to pay attention to some of these games in Week 18, as it will impact what next for the Patriots.